Okay, heres my findings:
First Amphibious Assualt (w/ 2 hit BB) Attacker will win about 62% of the time with both BB ship and tansport. Usually I play with 2 hit BB so that doesn’t really matter.
Now for the Land Battle: (3 inf. 1 tank vs. 1 inf. 1 tank)
41% of the time attack will win with only one loss. If you don’t like those odds, you can throw in a fighter (odds: 44%) but I rather use it to wipe out UK’s navy.
Now comes UK’s counter attack: (3 inf. 1 fighter vs. 2 inf. 1 tank ?)
This battle is really close. Usually UK will win but the odds are unsure about losses. UK will lose 0, 1, 2, 3 inf. 14, 20, 16, 19% of the time. I’ll use 20% (1 inf loss)
Now for Japans turn:
2 inf takes India (No losses)
This leaves 2 fighters and 5 inf. on the mainland to attaack either China or Russia.
Now for Germanys second turn: (2 inf., 1 fighter, 1 BB vs. 2 inf)
Germany wins 51% of the time with 1 inf. loss. If you unsure of this battle, you can throw in 1 inf from Algeria (though you can’t take West Africa) or an extra fighter.
Now lets tally the losses:
Germany: IPC +4
Japan: IPC +5 (Assuming 1 inf goes on to take Syria and Persia using tansport)
UK: Down -9
Germany: 4 inf, 1 tank
UK: 4 inf., 1 sub, 1 tank
Japan: None
Factory in UK?
By 2 turn UK will have 2 tank, 1 inf., 1 fighter in South Africa, turn 3 UK can hit Egypt with those forces. However Japan and Germany can put up a stiff presence at Egypt 3 inf. and 1 fighter. 20% (highest) Germany will hold Egypt with one 1 fighter remaining. 16%, 18% UK will win with 1 fighter or 1 ft. and 1 tank remaining. 14% of the time, everybody dies. Even though Egypt might be taken back by UK, Japan can send 2 inf. 2 ft. into Egypt with 2 inf. arriving every turn. This is if there is a factory in India, which WILL happen since Japan can take it with ease.
Hopefully these results help