So what DO people want: a game starting in 1914 simulating the world falling into the chaos of a global war in which virtually anything could happen, depending on what the leaders in government and armed forces do, or even on which way the wind is blowing on a particular Tuesday morning; or a text-book re-enactment of the major events of 1914-1918 with a few minor military variables thrown in via a bit of dice rolling?
Really, if you’re going to make such random events as the Zimmerman telegram set in stone, then on what possible criteria does the German government NOT inform Ludendorff that they’re going to ask the Allies for an Armistice in November 1918?
As I’ve mentioned before, if you make momentous events like Russian collapse and American declaration of war set to a rigid timetable, then players will inevitably plan for them, in a way that is totally unrealistic. At the appropriate point, Germany will strip its eastern front of forces and send them to the west BEFORE the Russian revolution occurs, because they know its due next turn according to the script, so there’s no point wasting troops building defences against an enemy that’s going to beam up with Captain Kirk before it can do you any serious damage.
Once the opening setup has been put in place, then an exact historical play-out is possible, but highly unlikely. The roll of a single die in any battle could radically alter the course of the entire conflict, including countries opting out or in.
To take a minor example: Bulgaria. This country flip-flopped (if I may borrow a phrase), with both alliances offering bribes and incentives for it to join them. In the end it was their enmity to Serbia that swung the decision, but it was only made when they knew that there was going to be a massive Austrian invasion of Serbia, making it a fairly safe project with no risk of defeat. Bulgaria would not have gone to war at that time without the Austrian action, so unless you make the invasion as solidly set in stone as every other “fixed event” in your script, then Bulgaria entering the war on turn X is nonsense. And If you DO force Austria into the move, then where’s the game anyway? You might just as well scrap the strategic game and fight a series of battle board replays of the major fights.
Any country might have collapsed internally under the stresses of the war; France nearly went that way in 1917, and Austria & Germany were on the brink of it when they decided to surrender rather than risk letting the reds take over.
Yes, Russia is the most likely to be the first country to go (if nothing else its the one power that is most difficult for friends to prop up in a crisis), but there is nothing inevitable about it. A series of victories, better leadership preventing such high casualties, capturing a vital city, a successful Dardanelles campaign allowing the western Allies to send supplies by sea - all these things could have kept Russia in the war.
Yes, a historical scenario where Russia collapses, then Germany shifts west in a desperate attempt to win before America gets into 2nd gear is an exciting prospect, but only one of an unlimited number. If it’s the same every game because of a tight script it’ll soon become as boring and predictable as those columns of Japanese tanks heading for Moscow.
As for chronology, are people seriously suggesting that the first 4 turns represent a year each, but that the game can go on for afterwards for another 10 turns? That represents a serious misunderstanding of the way the war actually went. By 1919 every country would have been on the verge of collapse, so a sensible turn record should not run to more than 1920 at the very latest.
If this really is being done just to get America into the war artificially early, then shame on the designers. If players are that narrow minded wouldn’t they rather play Fortress America, or Axis and Allies - the Mexican-American war?
WWI was a long war of attrition: if the Americans turn up to tip the balance while its barely got started then its really not a game about WWI, is it?