@Stucifer
41780-ITA-19.tsvg
You are correct about a couple of things: (a) I probably should save one or two CVs in the battle for SZ 38 (but did not even consider a follow-up attack) and (b) taking Sumatra would not have prevented the US aircraft from FIC attacking 38. What it would have prevented is the 2 fighter from SZ 20 joining the attack because there would have been only 10 landing spots on the 5 US CVs. This ( think) changed the US odds of winning from less than 50% to about 75%. Apparently, I forgot about these two fighters when I did my final combat calculation; a bad mistake.
Game History
Round: 19
Purchase Units - Italians
Italians buy 1 airfield, 2 artilleries, 2 destroyers and 2 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;
Combat Move - Italians
1 armour moved from Baltic States to Romania
Germans take Romania from Russians
3 infantry moved from Yugoslavia to Bulgaria
1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Southern Italy to Bulgaria
1 infantry moved from Baluchistan to Southern Persia
1 infantry moved from Egypt to 100 Sea Zone
1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 100 Sea Zone to 82 Sea Zone
1 infantry moved from 82 Sea Zone to Southern Persia
1 fighter moved from Alexandria to Southern Persia
1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 82 Sea Zone to Southern Persia
1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers moved from Trans-Jordan to Southern Persia
1 armour moved from Trans-Jordan to Syria
Italians take Syria from British
1 armour moved from Syria to Trans-Jordan
1 infantry moved from Egypt to Anglo-Egyptian Sudan
Italians take Anglo-Egyptian Sudan from British
Combat - Italians
Battle in Southern Persia
Italians attack with 3 fighters, 2 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers
British defend with 1 factory_minor and 1 infantry
Italians roll dice for 1 cruiser in Southern Persia, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits
Italians roll dice for 3 fighters, 2 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers in Southern Persia, round 2 : 3/8 hits, 3.83 expected hits
British roll dice for 1 infantry in Southern Persia, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
1 infantry owned by the British lost in Southern Persia
Italians win, taking Southern Persia from British with 3 fighters, 2 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
Casualties for British: 1 infantry
Battle in Bulgaria
Italians attack with 1 fighter, 3 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
Russians defend with 2 infantry
Italians roll dice for 1 fighter, 3 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Bulgaria, round 2 : 1/5 hits, 1.67 expected hits
Russians roll dice for 2 infantry in Bulgaria, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
2 infantry owned by the Italians lost in Bulgaria
1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Bulgaria
Italians roll dice for 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Bulgaria, round 3 : 1/3 hits, 1.33 expected hits
Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Bulgaria, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
1 infantry owned by the Italians lost in Bulgaria
1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Bulgaria
Italians win with 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is -3
Casualties for Italians: 3 infantry
Casualties for Russians: 2 infantry
Non Combat Move - Italians
1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Bulgaria to Northern Italy
1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Southern France
1 artillery moved from Egypt to Anglo-Egyptian Sudan
1 fighter moved from Southern Italy to Morocco
1 mech_infantry moved from Baltic States to Romania
1 transport moved from 100 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone
1 submarine moved from 99 Sea Zone to 94 Sea Zone
1 battleship and 1 destroyer moved from 100 Sea Zone to 82 Sea Zone
1 submarine moved from 82 Sea Zone to 74 Sea Zone
2 fighters moved from Southern Persia to 82 Sea Zone
1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Southern Persia to Egypt
1 fighter moved from Trans-Jordan to Egypt
2 tactical_bombers moved from Southern Persia to Trans-Jordan
2 infantry moved from Northern Italy to 97 Sea Zone
2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 97 Sea Zone to 100 Sea Zone
2 infantry moved from 100 Sea Zone to Trans-Jordan
1 infantry moved from Southern Italy to 97 Sea Zone
1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 97 Sea Zone to 100 Sea Zone
1 infantry moved from 100 Sea Zone to Egypt
1 carrier and 1 fighter moved from 97 Sea Zone to 100 Sea Zone
1 transport moved from 97 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone
2 transports moved from 82 Sea Zone to 83 Sea Zone
Place Units - Italians
1 destroyer placed in 83 Sea Zone
1 destroyer placed in 99 Sea Zone
1 airfield placed in Egypt
1 artillery and 1 infantry placed in Egypt
1 artillery and 1 infantry placed in Northern Italy
Turn Complete - Italians
Italians collect 25 PUs; end with 25 PUs
Objective Italians 1 Control The Mediterranean: Italians met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 30 PUs
Objective Italians 4 Control Iraq Or Persia Or Northwest Persia: Italians met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 32 PUs
Objective Italians 3 North Africa Control: Italians met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 37 PUs
Objective Italians 5 Control Convoy Lanes: Italians met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 40 PUs
Objective Italians 2 Roman Empire: Italians met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 45 PUs
Combat Hit Differential Summary :
Italians regular : -2.33
Russians regular : 2.00
British regular : -0.33