I used to play this version often some time ago… I might remember wrong but I think Germany is strong enough to take down Russia alone some times, just because Germany is so strong at the beginning and sometimes one less than average dice result would kill Russia early. It doesn’t mean Allies can’t hold but it’s tough the first 8 rounds for Allies. Once passed this threshold the chance of Allies victory improves over time typically…
What do you make of the new Strategic Bombing rules?
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Actually rolling a “1” with 6 planes is harder than you think. There is a 66.51% chance you will roll a one when rolling 6 die, not 100% - check here:
http://www.edcollins.com/backgammon/diceprob.htm
I honestly don’t know why they don’t just leave the numbers alone for the one round of combat - simultaneous fire - so the fighter escorts would attack @ 3, interceptors defend @ 4, bombers defend @ 1. That would hurt something!
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In the latest Alpha+3 rules, Larry changed the SBR rules for escorts and interceptors. Both hit @ 1 but any hits made by the bombers and escorts simply go behind the casualty line and can still roll with the surviving interceptors.
In other words, if you have 3 interceptors and the attacking bombers and escorts hit 2 of them, you still get to roll for 3 interceptors. Difference is they only hit on a 1 now.
It’s anybody’s guess as to which is better. -
@Der:
Actually rolling a “1” with 6 planes is harder than you think.
You’re mistaken.@Der:
There is a 66.51% chance you will roll a one when rolling 6 die, not 100%
You’re correct about this.@UrJohn:
on average.
I was referring to the statistical mean. As you pointed out, better than 1 time in 3 you get no hits, but you occasionally will get 2 hits, and you will rarely get 3-4 hits.
However, to get really, really close to that 1 hit average in practice, you’d need a large number of repetitions, and you’d have to have at least 6 defending units to be available to take as hits. The wasted unapplied hits from the rare times you get 5-6 hits on 6 dice versus 4 defenders actually slightly reduces your average number of hits taken by the defender, but 5+ 1s on 6 dice are rare enough that it’s too insignificant for this to even really merit discussion, worse than 1500:1. So, you really get around .9995 hits on average. I was just rounding to 1.
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In the latest Alpha+3 rules, Larry changed the SBR rules for escorts and interceptors.
This game came out 10 months after that 10/10/11 post on his site, so it has changed again. That’s one thing that makes this game frustrating - it’s not like chess where the rules have been around for hundreds of years. The rules are still fluid and keep changing.
I was just rounding to 1.
Agreed!
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