XDAP - 02 Final Draft (Axis) vs Dairy Qryn (Allies)

7 rolls or 25 rolls isn’t really enough to illustrate the Law of Central Tendency. I could run the math, but I feel reasonably safe saying that an average of 2.571 is not inconceivable over 7 rolls. Something as high as 4.429 is just as conceivable, so higher or lower numbers being the better is just an arbitration of the rules.

If you take a random sample of any 200 rolls, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the average roll is somewhere in the neighborhood of 3.500.

Like I said before, the number of dice rolled in a game such as this pretty much eliminates luck in the long run. There is something to be said about luck in a clutch situation, yes, but speaking from experience, luck plays its role in every battle. If you follow the teachings of Sun Tzu, though, you should be accounting for bad luck anyway. Either way, the dice should be a moot point. They are just the vehicle for deciding who lives and who dies instead of actually sending troops to sort it out.  I am not saying that it is an accurate comparison, dice to troops, but it is one of supreme convenience for the situation, a game.

I have seen good and bad “luck” in this match, but I rest assured that, in the long run, it isn’t luck that will win or lose this match.

Garg’s post illustrates the math perfectly, by the way, if his point doesn’t necessarily. His 19-roll average is closer to 3.500 than the Russian 7-roll average. If this were Risk, Garg would be flaunting how lucky he is to have rolled so well. High and low are arbitrary to the system. There is no luck.

Usually people look at dice stats for the entire game. Also when you shove 15 units against 1 and only roll 1 hit… usually stuff like that you would omit, because you only needed 1 hit.

also the dd off london doesn’t matter as a hit, your stuff repairs. :)

you lost 3 inf for 3 inf, that is breaking even, you can say you got diced if you lost the battle and even then it would only be a little skirmish, you do 100 of them you going to lose a few. It is bound to happen.

What are the 15 units though? 15 unsupported infantry getting only one hit on offense is not statistically overly improbable. Even with an average roll of 1.933, 15 unsupported infantry could score only 1 hit and roll 14 2’s. That’s why I am saying that it is the context of the rolls, not luck, that is most affecting games of this nature. Luck is just a “false positive.”

I lost 4 inf and a fighter in korea to 6 russian inf attacking once on russia round 1. It was hilarious.

That’s a hell of a way to start off a game. lol

yeah, I still won that game in the pacific, japan owns in this game, even with slightly bad dice.

I only now realized germany lost a bomber to take nov, how curious.

@Gargantua:

What are you talking about satin!
100% of the American rolls are 2!  100% man!
:P

LOL

Garg, if you look at the Standard Deviation for both Germans and Russians, you will see both are very close to “1”. 
Anything less than about “2.5” for standard deviation means you are not yet outside of the realm of the highly probable dice roll results.

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Alpha 3 Future, version: 3.1

Game History

Round :9

Purchase Units - Russians
            Russians buy 4 artilleries and 8 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - Russians
            8 infantry moved from Yenisey to Yakut S.S.R.
            1 infantry moved from Shensi to Hopei
                  Chinese take Hopei from Japanese
            2 bombers moved from Russia to Yakut S.S.R.
            1 armour moved from Anglo Egyptian Sudan to Trans-Jordan
            1 infantry moved from Alexandria to Egypt
            1 fighter moved from Bryansk to Novgorod
            2 infantry moved from Belarus to Novgorod
            1 infantry moved from Bessarabia to Eastern Poland
            1 artillery moved from Western Ukraine to Eastern Poland

Combat - Russians
            Battle in Yakut S.S.R.
                Russians attack with 2 bombers and 8 infantry
                Japanese defend with 2 artilleries and 5 infantry
                    Russians roll dice for 2 bombers and 8 infantry in Yakut S.S.R., round 1 :  3/10 hits
                    Japanese roll dice for 2 artilleries and 5 infantry in Yakut S.S.R., round 1 :  2/7 hits
                    2 infantry owned by the Russians and 3 infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Yakut S.S.R.
                    Russians roll dice for 2 bombers and 6 infantry in Yakut S.S.R., round 2 :  3/8 hits
                    Japanese roll dice for 2 artilleries and 2 infantry in Yakut S.S.R., round 2 :  1/4 hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians , 2 infantry owned by the Japanese and 1 artillery owned by the Japanese lost in Yakut S.S.R.
                    Russians roll dice for 2 bombers and 5 infantry in Yakut S.S.R., round 3 :  4/7 hits
                    Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery in Yakut S.S.R., round 3 :  0/1 hits
                    1 artillery owned by the Japanese lost in Yakut S.S.R.
                Russians win, taking Yakut S.S.R. from Japanese with 2 bombers and 5 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 14
                Casualties for Japanese: 2 artilleries and 5 infantry
                Casualties for Russians: 3 infantry
            Battle in Novgorod
                Russians attack with 1 fighter and 2 infantry
                Germans defend with 1 airfield, 1 factory_minor, 1 harbour and 1 infantry
                    Russians roll dice for 1 fighter and 2 infantry in Novgorod, round 1 :  2/3 hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Novgorod, round 1 :  1/1 hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians and 1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Novgorod
                Russians win, taking Novgorod from Germans with 1 fighter and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
                Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
            Battle in Eastern Poland
                Russians attack with 1 artillery and 1 infantry
                Germans defend with 1 artillery
                    Russians roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Eastern Poland, round 1 :  1/2 hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 artillery in Eastern Poland, round 1 :  0/1 hits
                    1 artillery owned by the Germans lost in Eastern Poland
                Russians win, taking Eastern Poland from Germans with 1 artillery and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4
                Casualties for Germans: 1 artillery

Non Combat Move - Russians
            1 aaGun and 5 infantry moved from Shensi to Hopei
            1 aaGun moved from Yenisey to Yakut S.S.R.
            1 infantry moved from Evenkiyskiy to Yenisey
            2 bombers moved from Yakut S.S.R. to Timguska
            3 infantry moved from Volgograd to Rostov
            2 aaGuns, 2 artilleries and 9 infantry moved from Western Ukraine to Bryansk
            3 artilleries and 7 infantry moved from Russia to Bryansk
            1 mech_infantry moved from Belarus to Vologda
            1 mech_infantry moved from Bryansk to Vologda
            1 armour moved from Belarus to Russia
            2 armour and 11 mech_infantrys moved from Bryansk to Russia
            2 artilleries and 5 infantry moved from Belarus to Bryansk
            1 fighter moved from Novgorod to Bryansk

Place Units - Russians
            1 artillery and 2 infantry placed in Ukraine
            3 artilleries and 6 infantry placed in Russia

Turn Complete - Russians
            Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 2
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 80 Sea Zone. Rolls: 1,1
            Russians collect 34 PUs (2 lost to blockades); end with 34 PUs total
            Objective Russians 2 Spread Of Communism: Russians met a national objective for an additional 9 PUs; end with 43 PUs

Production/PUs Summary :

Germans : 52 / 65
    Russians : 36 / 43
    Japanese : 62 / 66
    Americans : 53 / 73
    Chinese : 7 / 7
    British : 20 / 0
    UK_Pacific : 6 / 8
    Italians : 12 / 16
    ANZAC : 10 / 17
    French : 7 / 0
    Dutch : 0 / 0
    Mongolians : 0 / 0
    Neutral_Axis : 0 / 0
    Neutral_Allies : 0 / 0
    Neutral_True : 18 / 0

nice, very nice, grind on sight :)

me and my 12 inf and 2 aa guns are going all the way to manchuria and korea bro

May all your aa gun rolls be 1s! Mine missed so far in Asia. @_@