I respectfully disagree - all things being equal, Cow, we were looking at a long slow bloody death march, which quite frankly sucks. I have better things to do with my time than watch myself die a grisly death.
The better team won the game, and the pain ended.
I’ve been playing A&A since it originally came out, waaaay back in the day, and I’ve never seen a worse opening for a nation than UK’s opener. It was single-handedly brutal. 4 units lost against 0 in Ethiopia? Hello? 2 extra air units lost vs. the Italian fleet? Destroyer vs sub results in German sub winning, then hitting the UK for 3 IPCs lost? Then on Germany’s next turn… Strat bombing resulting in 15 IPCs out of a possible 16 damage on Britain’s IC? 6 out of 6 on the airbase?
For Sealion, 10 AA shots for UK resulted in 1 hit? Germany won with an extra 3-4 units at the very least (all premium pieces - artillery and armor)? See a trend?
Our last hope - Russia - lost a total of 46 IPCs worth of extra units and territories in a single battle… really? And not only that, the momentum shift was unbelievable… Russian territories would have been attacked that shouldn’t have been… Russia down 2 aircraft out of 3…and you can’t measure that just in IPCs, as Russia needs to use those fighters every single round. Could we have stacked in E Poland the round before? Absolutely. It was a strong consideration. But an opportunistic German player (our opponent’s MO, who would have done it based on other aggressive moves) would have absolutely smashed Russia’s forces, used the transports to back it up repeatedly, and Russia would have been done in 4 more turns. I sure would have. Hindsight is easy - in the situation we found ourselves in, a Russia able to retaliate into Romania and blunt the German offensive (by odds no aircraft lost and taken with an armor), stack in E Poland for the turn after retaliation (with more mobile units backing it up), and harassing Germany’s front while allowing the US to get in the war seemed our best possible option.
So! We were mortally wounded. Some of the issue was a series of mistakes we at Team Headless Neds made, and some of it was dice. Could we have pulled it out? Ummm… sure, I guess. Maybe a 3% chance. I don’t know your situation, Cow, but I have a family and a stressful job. I can’t come home and carve out a 1/2 hour and pour my energy into a game that is clearly over. I envy your situation that you can.
I also disagree that this is a dice game. Risk is a dice game. This is a strategy game with dice, not a dice game with strategy. That’s a critical difference. If you can’t depend on odds, you can’t depend on anything. Personally I go into every battle based on math, not rolling craps. If I wanted to play a dice game, I’d go chuck some dice in the parking lot with some friends. In A&A, I dislike big swings that go my way just as much as big swings that go against me. In every game, I root for even dice, and a fair shot… then, we get to see the better strategies win out.
You make a fair point that a single big battle somewhere could in theory shift things around - but that’s like being down in a basketball game by 14 points with a minute and a half left and saying “if we just get some turnovers, and make 3’s each time down the floor, and…” It’s just not realistic, and happens once every 15 years in the NBA. If I were 16 again and had nothing better to do hell yeah I’d keep going! But I have to mow the front lawn and get my daughter to sleep at a decent time.
All of that having been said - go Team Imhotep! They won fair and square, played a more solid game, and I’ll root for them until we play them again in the tournament, for the championship :-D They were classy and honorable opponents.