TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition
Game History
Round: 2 Politics - French Trigger French Friendly With Mongolians activates a trigger called: Trigger Allies Friendly With MongoliansCombat Hit Differential Summary :
Tinydictator: First Blood (Axis)
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This is the correct map again.
I guess I indeed have still very good odds winning this game on the Atlantic side of the map. Its nonetheless frustrating to see your entire strategy go bust on an outcome as ridiculous as this.
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small change: The sub from sz6 goes to sz33 and the DD from sz6 goes to sz26.
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I had luck all-round (except the sub), including Yunnan. But the DGU takes the cup, it was pretty incredible.
As for Hawaii, I ran the calculator (now, I’m not using one, or else I wouldn’t have the guts to carry through my attriction strategy) and it were 25% of getting one 1 on the first round. You knew that if that happened and I rolled average (1 hit), it would be same hits, less points for you… You should have gone in with the fig. But even if you did, I still got two inf standing. With the same (admitedly lucky) rolls, even if you had killed another inf in the meantime and took the last hit on the fig, it would still be a 3 v 2 showdown…
I don’t think you were ever going to win in the Pacific, I was feeling quite confident of holding out Sydney (still a few turns before you get there, with our without the DGu inf, and 22+ to spend) and bogging you down in Hawaii with a couple rounds’ spending by the US (which you wouldn’t be able to keep up with without NOs) - but then again I don’t know your strategy…
Another small consolation is that luck evens out, and you want it on your biggest chance - which always was Europe, particularly with the high-flying Italians. I usually prefer my luck in the Russian stepes :wink:
Good night!
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Hm, I don’t have a caluclator, but if my stochastic skills don’t fail me, that is not correct. My probability to score hits in the shore bombardment round was 1.6% for no hits and 11.5% for 1 hit. That means 86.9% 2+ hits. And even if I have only one hit and you have one hit (as it happened), it is 2 Inf 1 Tank vs 3 Inf, which usually is also more likely to either mutual annihilation or a win for me, and not you surviving with 2 units:
Even in round 2, I had a 65.3% chance to score 1+ hits (your chance to get 2+ hits was 25.9%). Thus, even if the odds were slightly on your side, the by far most likely outcome was for each of us to have exactly one hit (48.6% for me and 44.4% for you, the remaining outcomes sharing the rest of the probabilities).
If that happens, it is 1 Inf, 1 Tank vs 2 Inf, and then the odds are slightly on my side: 0/1/2 is 41,67%/50%/8,3% for me vs 44,4%/44.4%/11.1% for you.
Instead, I had no hit, The probability of this result, if I take your 1 hit in round 1 as a given, was 4,78% (my only consolation being that I did not hit the jackpot of scoring no hits at all in two rounds, which was at 0,55%). So yes, I took a chance of about 5% in an important battle when I didn’t needed to. Apparently that was silly.
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I’m not saying that, all that I am saying is why take a 20%, or even 10% chance, on a decisive battle when you can avoid it? A 10% event will happen once every 10 rolls. After that, a tank and three inf against 3 inf is always risky - the 2 surviving inf are nice, but mutual annihilation favours me too.
The problem is that small battles swing so easily. My rolls weren’t that lucky, I only hit two once. You had 1 when you should have gotten 3, 0 when should have gotten 1, and 1 on a 50%. We’ve seen more incredible stuff - like the D.Gu battle right now. Imagine I had gotten three hits in the first round against your average three? How many times we’ve seen infantry hit three times in a row… The bad luck just hurts more because it was crucial.
However, you were only in the position to make the assault because my previous attack on those units failed utterly… On average the cruiser would be dead by round 2, one extra hit with a sub and you’d add the damaged battleship or make the ac inoperable…
But if you feel strongly about this particular turn of bad luck, we can re-roll all the fights.
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Let me add that the swing in Hawaii - 3,5 hits on my favour - is huge considering the number of units involved, but as I said I don’t need any surviving inf, just to hold the territory. So a 1,5 swing (like you hitting 2 on your second round) would be enough.
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no need to re-roll, just some need of bitching.
Obviously I did not calculate this battle in advance as precisely. If someone would have told me “look you have a 10% chance of failure without the Ftr”, I would have send the fighter in. So I fully take the blame.
But still, even though not taking Hawaii is the main desaster, having 2 Infs surviving there adds insult to injury. If it would have been mutual annihilation at last I may have a (better) chance at a later point, which is no rather doubtful. Depending on your moves, of course.
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I can totally relate to the need of b*tching about bad luck! :-) It does make a difference though, so feel free to reconsider re-rolling Japan’s turn after my US, China and UK turn.
I just noticed I have one transport missing in W.US, bought it in the first turn and never placed it (I’ll correct to two there).
US 3
Buy (66):
1 inf (3)
2 subs (12)
3 tra (21)
1 dd (8)
2 fig (20)
save 2Combat:
Sz89: 1 dd, 1 tac, 1 ac (Sz10) - I checked and Sz64 connects to Sz11
1 dd, 1 tac, 1 ac v 1 sub
Rolls: 1@2 1@3; Total Hits: 21@2: (1)1@3: (2)
Rolls: 1@1; Total Hits: 11@1: (1) -
Hit on the dd.
That sub is a hero, has given me nothing but trouble and, true to form, went down fighting… I take my hat off as he sinks into the cold depths.
NCM:
S.Me: 1 inf, 1 art (C.US)
W.US: 1 fig (land from Sz10)
Sz89: 1 tra (Sz10)
Sz25: 1 dd (Sz10)
Sz10: 1 sub (Sz12)Build:
W.US: 2 subs, 1 dd (Sz10), 2 figs
E.US: 3 traNo need to roll for convoy raiding of Hawaii, I’ll take the 1 IPC off.
Collects:
49+20 (69)
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Place inf in E.US too, and add the two to the income that I saved (71).
China 3:
Buy (16):
5 inf (15)
save 1Combat:
Kwe: 1 inf (Yun)
Kwa: 1 inf (Yun)
Anh: 1 inf (Hop)
Jeh: 1 inf (Cha)Jeh
1 inf v 1 inf (first hit)
Rolls: 10@1; Total Hits: 210@1: (2, 1, 6, 4, 1, 6, 4, 6, 3, 2)
Rolls: 10@2; Total Hits: 210@2: (3, 5, 4, 3, 3, 1, 6, 5, 6, 2) -
Those Cha chinese communists have been outstanding too…
NCM:
Sik: 1 inf (She)
Hop: 3 inf (Sui), 1 fig (Bur)Build:
She: 1 inf
Cha: 1 inf
Yun: 3 infCollect:
12
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well I can’t re-roll everytime I have bad luck, can’t I?
Concerning the sub - it was a true hero indeed (one iron cross with oak leafs coming up), but are you sure that sz64 connects to sz11? I always thought it didn’t. If you put the maps together, it is sz28 that connects to sz64.
Concerning your transport, I’m pretty sure that you did place it - it is exactly the transport that is in sz10 right now. Your other two transports got both destroyed when I attacked sz26 in J1 and J2 (as one Pearl Harbour wasn’t enough for you :wink: ).
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although I do feel slightly insulted by the fact that the Chinese infantery that defeated 2 Inf and 1 Ftr now goes and singlehandedly kills the Inf that I “wisely” withdrew.
btw they are the nationalist chinese, no commies there (yet)!
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You’re right about the transport - I’ll move it with the ac then, no tra in Sz10.
SZ64 does connect, I don’t have the Europe rules with me but it says so in here, for example:
http://www.axisandallies.org/p/axis_allies_europe_1940_preview_4_the_global_rules/
UK 3
Buy (12 UK Pacific):
1 inf (3)
1 art (4)
1 AA (5)Combat:
Irq: 1 inf (Ind, via tra Sz39), 1 fig, 1 tac (India); 1 cc (Sz76); 1 bb (Sz39)
Eth: 1 tan (blitzes on the way to Eth)
Sz56: 1 fig (W.Au), 1 ddThis is a bit risky, but the Italians can’t have that infantry join their middle east advance…
Irq
1 inf, 1 fig, 1 tac, shore bombard 1 cc, 1 bb v 3 inf
Rolls: 1@1 2@3 2@4; Total Hits: 51@1: (1)2@3: (3, 1)2@4: (4, 4)
Rolls: 3@2; Total Hits: 23@2: (2, 1, 3) -
Another post flagged as sp*m! I think it was because I put the link to a page - from this site! - which says that Sz64 connects…
I’ll try to copy paste it in parts. First the combat move:
UK 3
Buy (12 UK Pacific):
1 inf (3)
1 art (4)
1 AA (5)Combat:
Irq: 1 inf (Ind, via tra Sz39), 1 fig, 1 tac (India); 1 cc (Sz76); 1 bb (Sz39)
Eth: 1 tan (blitzes on the way to Eth)
Sz56: 1 fig (W.Au), 1 dd -
I rolled the dice and this is what came out… Quite surprising!
Irq
1 inf, 1 fig, 1 tac, shore bombard 1 cc, 1 bb v 3 inf
Rolls: 1@1 2@3 2@4; Total Hits: 51@1: (1)2@3: (3, 1)2@4: (4, 4)
Rolls: 3@2; Total Hits: 23@2: (2, 1, 3) -
Irq
1 inf, 1 fig, 1 tac, shore bombard 1 cc, 1 bb v 3 inf
Rolls: 1@1 2@3 2@4; Total Hits: 51@1: (1)2@3: (3, 1)2@4: (4, 4)
Rolls: 3@2; Total Hits: 23@2: (2, 1, 3) -
Man… In short, all of my shots hit, but two of theirs also hit… inf and tac killed.
Corrected the transport by the way, you’re right (tra then moves with the ac to Sz89, no tra in Sz10)
Sz56
1 dd, 1 fig v 1 sub, 1 dd
Rolls: 1@2 1@3; Total Hits: 01@2: (6)1@3: (5)
Rolls: 1@1 1@2; Total Hits: 21@1: (1)1@2: (1) -
wow, it seems like this dice engine really has a heart for the little guys…
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Ouch indeed…
NCM
N. Per: 1 fig (lands from Iraq)
Ken: 2 inf (Con); 2 inf, 1 mec (Sud); 1 tan (Eth); 1 art (I.So)
Ind: 1 inf (Bur)
Bur: 7 inf (Sha)
Sha: 1 inf (FIC)
Yun: 1 AA
Sz101: 2 cc, 1 bb, 2 inf, 1 art, 1 tan (boarding US tra)
Sz89: 1 dd
Sz79: 1 tranBuild:
Ind: 1 inf, 1 art, 1 AA
Collect:
12 (UK Pacific) + 1 (apparently I had 13 to spend, not 12, so I save 1)
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