Experimental Alpha 4 Game - Wrongway Corrigan vs. Noll


  • I said certainly greater than 5%.


  • try 121 shots at 2, 10 times or even a hundred times.  Then try 12 shots at 2, you’ll see there’s a lot more variability as a percentage of the expected in the smaller number of dice.


  • of course.

    Things get “standard” on bigger numbers actually. Something like 1000dices.

    For example the 120 dices

    DiceRolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 33120@2: (4, 6, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 2, 3, 6, 6, 6, 3, 6, 3, 1, 1, 5, 3, 1, 1, 5, 5, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 4, 4, 2, 4, 5, 6, 6, 1, 6, 6, 6, 3, 5, 3, 4, 6, 2, 6, 6, 2, 4, 5, 5, 2, 2, 2, 6, 1, 5, 3, 2, 3, 1, 4, 6, 5, 4, 6, 5, 4, 5, 5, 6, 4, 2, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 5, 6, 2, 4, 2, 4, 5, 1, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6, 4, 3, 6, 3, 6, 5, 2, 3, 4, 1, 3, 1, 2, 5, 4, 5, 1, 6, 4, 6, 1, 1, 1, 4, 6)
    DiceRolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 43120@2: (2, 2, 3, 5, 6, 2, 3, 3, 2, 6, 2, 6, 1, 5, 3, 1, 1, 4, 3, 6, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 6, 1, 5, 1, 5, 4, 3, 1, 6, 2, 6, 2, 5, 2, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 6, 5, 4, 4, 1, 4, 4, 2, 4, 4, 6, 4, 5, 5, 5, 4, 2, 1, 4, 2, 3, 4, 4, 1, 6, 1, 5, 4, 4, 2, 6, 4, 1, 4, 1, 2, 1, 5, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 6, 6, 3, 1, 3, 5, 4, 1, 3, 4, 6, 3, 2, 4, 1, 4, 4, 5, 4, 1, 6, 5, 1, 4, 2, 5, 1, 5, 1, 2)
    DiceRolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 36120@2: (6, 1, 1, 3, 1, 4, 2, 4, 4, 4, 2, 4, 1, 4, 1, 2, 2, 5, 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, 6, 3, 6, 5, 3, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 5, 1, 6, 3, 2, 4, 6, 6, 6, 4, 6, 4, 5, 1, 5, 3, 6, 4, 2, 5, 2, 1, 1, 2, 6, 4, 6, 5, 2, 4, 4, 1, 5, 3, 3, 1, 1, 3, 1, 1, 6, 6, 4, 5, 1, 2, 1, 1, 5, 3, 5, 6, 3, 6, 1, 2, 3, 1, 6, 5, 5, 3, 5, 4, 6, 1, 5, 1, 4, 5, 2, 4, 4, 5, 2, 5, 1, 3, 5, 5, 5, 4, 5, 2, 4, 6, 3)
    DiceRolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 37120@2: (6, 1, 3, 5, 6, 6, 3, 3, 6, 4, 1, 1, 1, 5, 2, 4, 3, 1, 6, 2, 1, 2, 6, 6, 6, 4, 5, 1, 1, 4, 4, 1, 5, 1, 5, 4, 1, 2, 6, 1, 6, 1, 1, 6, 6, 3, 4, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 4, 3, 5, 2, 1, 6, 3, 5, 4, 3, 3, 5, 2, 1, 5, 4, 1, 5, 3, 1, 6, 2, 1, 3, 6, 3, 6, 3, 1, 3, 2, 5, 6, 6, 6, 1, 5, 2, 6, 3, 5, 3, 1, 6, 3, 5, 3, 3, 4, 5, 4, 4, 1, 5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 2, 3, 5, 6, 3, 4, 6, 4)
    DiceRolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 41120@2: (3, 1, 3, 5, 6, 5, 5, 5, 1, 4, 2, 4, 2, 1, 1, 6, 2, 6, 1, 3, 6, 1, 6, 2, 4, 4, 2, 6, 1, 1, 4, 4, 2, 6, 2, 1, 4, 1, 6, 5, 5, 2, 3, 1, 3, 4, 1, 4, 3, 1, 1, 3, 1, 6, 4, 4, 3, 6, 4, 4, 6, 1, 1, 2, 6, 3, 3, 4, 4, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 3, 6, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 4, 4, 4, 1, 6, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 4, 2, 1, 1, 5, 3, 4, 2, 6, 2, 4, 6, 4, 1, 3, 2, 4, 1, 2, 2, 4, 6, 2, 4, 3)


  • Expected result is 40 so my rolls where quite balanced.

    Let’s try again

    DiceRolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 35120@2: (5, 3, 3, 6, 3, 4, 4, 4, 1, 1, 2, 2, 6, 1, 3, 1, 5, 3, 1, 6, 6, 3, 3, 6, 5, 6, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 1, 5, 1, 1, 2, 5, 4, 6, 5, 5, 1, 1, 4, 2, 4, 5, 1, 6, 5, 1, 5, 1, 3, 4, 6, 3, 1, 2, 6, 3, 6, 6, 2, 1, 6, 3, 5, 4, 2, 4, 2, 3, 5, 6, 5, 2, 4, 5, 1, 3, 5, 5, 4, 2, 3, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 6, 4, 4, 2, 4, 3, 4, 3, 1, 5, 1, 2, 2, 5, 2, 6, 6, 5, 4, 6, 2, 3, 5, 5, 5, 2, 2, 4, 5)
    DiceRolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 42120@2: (6, 2, 5, 4, 5, 6, 2, 2, 4, 4, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 5, 3, 2, 4, 1, 1, 6, 4, 6, 4, 3, 1, 5, 1, 6, 5, 2, 5, 2, 1, 5, 4, 2, 2, 1, 4, 5, 5, 2, 3, 1, 1, 6, 3, 5, 1, 3, 4, 4, 3, 1, 1, 4, 6, 1, 4, 5, 3, 2, 6, 3, 6, 4, 5, 2, 5, 2, 1, 3, 4, 3, 4, 4, 2, 1, 2, 2, 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 1, 3, 6, 1, 6, 4, 4, 2, 4, 6, 2, 1, 5, 4, 5, 1, 4, 2, 4, 6, 6, 1, 2, 6, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3)
    DiceRolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 47120@2: (5, 1, 4, 5, 5, 1, 6, 2, 1, 1, 3, 5, 5, 2, 6, 2, 3, 3, 2, 3, 4, 3, 2, 6, 6, 5, 1, 3, 1, 3, 5, 5, 3, 2, 4, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 6, 2, 2, 2, 1, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6, 1, 2, 2, 6, 2, 6, 1, 4, 6, 3, 3, 5, 6, 5, 2, 2, 1, 5, 5, 4, 2, 5, 6, 4, 6, 1, 2, 3, 4, 1, 3, 4, 2, 5, 4, 4, 4, 5, 1, 4, 2, 4, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 6, 3, 5, 5, 1, 4, 5, 2, 1, 3, 2, 4, 1, 4, 2, 4, 1, 6, 2)
    DiceRolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 35120@2: (2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 4, 6, 1, 6, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 5, 5, 4, 3, 4, 6, 4, 6, 2, 2, 6, 5, 3, 4, 5, 3, 5, 1, 5, 2, 5, 3, 6, 5, 3, 6, 6, 4, 1, 6, 1, 6, 4, 5, 2, 1, 4, 6, 1, 6, 1, 6, 4, 4, 3, 3, 6, 2, 3, 5, 4, 2, 1, 4, 6, 3, 4, 5, 1, 4, 4, 1, 3, 1, 6, 5, 2, 4, 4, 2, 3, 5, 2, 6, 3, 5, 2, 3, 6, 5, 1, 4, 6, 2, 1, 6, 5, 5, 4, 5, 2, 1, 5, 4, 2, 5, 3, 4, 2, 6, 6, 4, 5, 1, 4, 1)
    DiceRolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 39120@2: (5, 6, 3, 5, 4, 4, 3, 4, 5, 3, 3, 3, 1, 1, 2, 3, 1, 1, 6, 3, 5, 2, 6, 6, 2, 6, 4, 1, 6, 1, 1, 5, 6, 4, 4, 4, 2, 6, 2, 6, 3, 4, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 5, 5, 6, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3, 4, 1, 6, 4, 1, 1, 5, 5, 1, 3, 3, 5, 4, 3, 6, 4, 5, 4, 1, 2, 2, 5, 2, 1, 3, 1, 2, 6, 3, 3, 2, 6, 4, 2, 4, 4, 3, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 1, 1, 2, 1, 4, 6, 4, 4, 2, 6, 3, 4, 6, 5, 4, 2, 5, 1, 5, 6, 1, 2, 2)


  • The best roll had 47 hits, 7more than expected is nothing in a 120dice count.

    Indeed you had bad dices on your side, still this can be expected unfortunately. And I think it’s part of the fun of the game. If you can predict the outcome of a battle 100% of the times, the game become boring.

    You had 86% chances of winning that battle. I guess the 14% striked you back.

    14% is not that hard to achieve, it happens around 1/6 of the times.


  • In my local game group I’m not very lucky, actually I’m always very cursed with the dices. I still win the games though, 'cause they’re not as experienced as I am.

    In one game I was able to lose India with something like:
    12inf 10rtl 3arm 12+ aircrafts
    vs
    20inf


  • the fact that it came down to a battle the axis could have won, and possibly won the game if they won the battle, is some indication that the game isn’t horribly unbalanced – now I realize that you and Jen want to teach me how a crush Russia strategy will unbalance this setup.

    Truthfully, although this is interesting for me - and I really believe this plays out like WWII more than any other version, I think we need to give the new Krieghund modifications a chance.

    Amazing how we had a major battle in Ukraine in the Winter of 1943-44, how the italians pushed on Stalingrad - albeit from a different direction in Winter 1942-43, how the destroyer-submarine warfare in DEI played out.

    The stalemate in the Pacific is a bit of a problem; however, even the standard 1940 game doesn’t really promote action that reminds me of the actual war.  I think we need cheaper transports and amphib assault rules.


  • and thanks for at least acknowledging that I had some bad dice in that last battle.


  • you hit 54 out of 121 in your opening round, in your simulated results right now, you didn’t even get close to that, best of 10 was 47 hits, 7 less than what actually occurred, so I stand by my statement that the result was flukey.


  • believe it or not, once I survived the aa gun shots with only 1 hit, my chances were even above 90%, the chance of the aa hitting 2 or 3 planes is what kept the original odds around 90%.

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