@The_Good_Captain Game History
Round: 1 Purchase Units - AustroHungarians AustroHungarians buy 2 battleships; Remaining resources: 2 PUs; Combat Move - AustroHungarians Trigger SerbiaJoins: Setting switch to false for conditionAttachmentSerbiaSwitch attached to Russians Trigger RomaniaJoins: Setting switch to false for conditionAttachmentRomaniaSwitch attached to Russians Trigger SerbiaJoins: Russians captures territory Serbia Trigger SerbiaJoins: Russians takes ownership of territory Serbia Trigger RomaniaJoins: Russians captures territory Romania Trigger RomaniaJoins: Russians takes ownership of territory Romania 2 artilleries and 6 infantry moved from Budapest to Serbia 2 artilleries and 6 infantry moved from Galicia to Romania 6 infantry moved from Budapest to Romania 2 artilleries and 6 infantry moved from Trieste to Venice 2 artilleries and 6 infantry moved from Tyrolia to Venice 2 artilleries and 6 infantry moved from Bohemia to Galicia 2 artilleries and 12 infantry moved from Vienna to Galicia Russians take Serbia from Neutral_Allied Russians take Romania from Neutral_Allied Combat - AustroHungarians AustroHungarians has abandoned SZ 9 to British AustroHungarians has abandoned SZ 12 to Russians AustroHungarians has abandoned SZ 15 to French AustroHungarians has abandoned SZ 16 to French AustroHungarians has abandoned SZ 17 to Italians AustroHungarians has abandoned SZ 21 to Russians Battle in Romania AustroHungarians attack with 2 artilleries and 12 infantry AustroHungarians win, taking SZ 9 from Neutral, taking SZ 12 from Neutral, taking SZ 15 from Neutral, taking SZ 16 from Neutral, taking SZ 17 from Neutral, taking SZ 21 from Neutral, taking Romania from Russians with 2 artilleries and 7 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -15 Casualties for AustroHungarians: 5 infantry Casualties for Russians: 1 artillery and 5 infantry Battle in Serbia AustroHungarians attack with 2 artilleries and 6 infantry Neutral_Allied and AustroHungarians reach a stalemate . Battle score for attacker is -6 Casualties for AustroHungarians: 2 infantry Casualties for Russians: 1 artillery and 2 infantry Battle in Venice AustroHungarians attack with 4 artilleries and 12 infantry Italians defend with 2 artilleries and 6 infantry Italians and AustroHungarians reach a stalemate . Battle score for attacker is 7 Casualties for AustroHungarians: 4 infantry Casualties for Italians: 1 artillery and 5 infantry Combat Move - AustroHungarians Place Units - AustroHungarians 2 battleships placed in SZ 18 Turn Complete - AustroHungarians AustroHungarians collect 29 PUs; end with 31 PUsExperimental Alpha 4 Game - Wrongway Corrigan vs. Noll
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less than 5hits = 2/10
6+ hits = 7/105%? :-D
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I said certainly greater than 5%.
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try 121 shots at 2, 10 times or even a hundred times. Then try 12 shots at 2, you’ll see there’s a lot more variability as a percentage of the expected in the smaller number of dice.
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of course.
Things get “standard” on bigger numbers actually. Something like 1000dices.
For example the 120 dices
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 33120@2: (4, 6, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 2, 3, 6, 6, 6, 3, 6, 3, 1, 1, 5, 3, 1, 1, 5, 5, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 4, 4, 2, 4, 5, 6, 6, 1, 6, 6, 6, 3, 5, 3, 4, 6, 2, 6, 6, 2, 4, 5, 5, 2, 2, 2, 6, 1, 5, 3, 2, 3, 1, 4, 6, 5, 4, 6, 5, 4, 5, 5, 6, 4, 2, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 5, 6, 2, 4, 2, 4, 5, 1, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6, 4, 3, 6, 3, 6, 5, 2, 3, 4, 1, 3, 1, 2, 5, 4, 5, 1, 6, 4, 6, 1, 1, 1, 4, 6)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 43120@2: (2, 2, 3, 5, 6, 2, 3, 3, 2, 6, 2, 6, 1, 5, 3, 1, 1, 4, 3, 6, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 6, 1, 5, 1, 5, 4, 3, 1, 6, 2, 6, 2, 5, 2, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 6, 5, 4, 4, 1, 4, 4, 2, 4, 4, 6, 4, 5, 5, 5, 4, 2, 1, 4, 2, 3, 4, 4, 1, 6, 1, 5, 4, 4, 2, 6, 4, 1, 4, 1, 2, 1, 5, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 6, 6, 3, 1, 3, 5, 4, 1, 3, 4, 6, 3, 2, 4, 1, 4, 4, 5, 4, 1, 6, 5, 1, 4, 2, 5, 1, 5, 1, 2)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 36120@2: (6, 1, 1, 3, 1, 4, 2, 4, 4, 4, 2, 4, 1, 4, 1, 2, 2, 5, 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, 6, 3, 6, 5, 3, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 5, 1, 6, 3, 2, 4, 6, 6, 6, 4, 6, 4, 5, 1, 5, 3, 6, 4, 2, 5, 2, 1, 1, 2, 6, 4, 6, 5, 2, 4, 4, 1, 5, 3, 3, 1, 1, 3, 1, 1, 6, 6, 4, 5, 1, 2, 1, 1, 5, 3, 5, 6, 3, 6, 1, 2, 3, 1, 6, 5, 5, 3, 5, 4, 6, 1, 5, 1, 4, 5, 2, 4, 4, 5, 2, 5, 1, 3, 5, 5, 5, 4, 5, 2, 4, 6, 3)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 37120@2: (6, 1, 3, 5, 6, 6, 3, 3, 6, 4, 1, 1, 1, 5, 2, 4, 3, 1, 6, 2, 1, 2, 6, 6, 6, 4, 5, 1, 1, 4, 4, 1, 5, 1, 5, 4, 1, 2, 6, 1, 6, 1, 1, 6, 6, 3, 4, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 4, 3, 5, 2, 1, 6, 3, 5, 4, 3, 3, 5, 2, 1, 5, 4, 1, 5, 3, 1, 6, 2, 1, 3, 6, 3, 6, 3, 1, 3, 2, 5, 6, 6, 6, 1, 5, 2, 6, 3, 5, 3, 1, 6, 3, 5, 3, 3, 4, 5, 4, 4, 1, 5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 2, 3, 5, 6, 3, 4, 6, 4)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 41120@2: (3, 1, 3, 5, 6, 5, 5, 5, 1, 4, 2, 4, 2, 1, 1, 6, 2, 6, 1, 3, 6, 1, 6, 2, 4, 4, 2, 6, 1, 1, 4, 4, 2, 6, 2, 1, 4, 1, 6, 5, 5, 2, 3, 1, 3, 4, 1, 4, 3, 1, 1, 3, 1, 6, 4, 4, 3, 6, 4, 4, 6, 1, 1, 2, 6, 3, 3, 4, 4, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 3, 6, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 4, 4, 4, 1, 6, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 4, 2, 1, 1, 5, 3, 4, 2, 6, 2, 4, 6, 4, 1, 3, 2, 4, 1, 2, 2, 4, 6, 2, 4, 3) -
Expected result is 40 so my rolls where quite balanced.
Let’s try again
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 35120@2: (5, 3, 3, 6, 3, 4, 4, 4, 1, 1, 2, 2, 6, 1, 3, 1, 5, 3, 1, 6, 6, 3, 3, 6, 5, 6, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 1, 5, 1, 1, 2, 5, 4, 6, 5, 5, 1, 1, 4, 2, 4, 5, 1, 6, 5, 1, 5, 1, 3, 4, 6, 3, 1, 2, 6, 3, 6, 6, 2, 1, 6, 3, 5, 4, 2, 4, 2, 3, 5, 6, 5, 2, 4, 5, 1, 3, 5, 5, 4, 2, 3, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 6, 4, 4, 2, 4, 3, 4, 3, 1, 5, 1, 2, 2, 5, 2, 6, 6, 5, 4, 6, 2, 3, 5, 5, 5, 2, 2, 4, 5)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 42120@2: (6, 2, 5, 4, 5, 6, 2, 2, 4, 4, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 5, 3, 2, 4, 1, 1, 6, 4, 6, 4, 3, 1, 5, 1, 6, 5, 2, 5, 2, 1, 5, 4, 2, 2, 1, 4, 5, 5, 2, 3, 1, 1, 6, 3, 5, 1, 3, 4, 4, 3, 1, 1, 4, 6, 1, 4, 5, 3, 2, 6, 3, 6, 4, 5, 2, 5, 2, 1, 3, 4, 3, 4, 4, 2, 1, 2, 2, 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 1, 3, 6, 1, 6, 4, 4, 2, 4, 6, 2, 1, 5, 4, 5, 1, 4, 2, 4, 6, 6, 1, 2, 6, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 47120@2: (5, 1, 4, 5, 5, 1, 6, 2, 1, 1, 3, 5, 5, 2, 6, 2, 3, 3, 2, 3, 4, 3, 2, 6, 6, 5, 1, 3, 1, 3, 5, 5, 3, 2, 4, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 6, 2, 2, 2, 1, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6, 1, 2, 2, 6, 2, 6, 1, 4, 6, 3, 3, 5, 6, 5, 2, 2, 1, 5, 5, 4, 2, 5, 6, 4, 6, 1, 2, 3, 4, 1, 3, 4, 2, 5, 4, 4, 4, 5, 1, 4, 2, 4, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 6, 3, 5, 5, 1, 4, 5, 2, 1, 3, 2, 4, 1, 4, 2, 4, 1, 6, 2)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 35120@2: (2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 4, 6, 1, 6, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 5, 5, 4, 3, 4, 6, 4, 6, 2, 2, 6, 5, 3, 4, 5, 3, 5, 1, 5, 2, 5, 3, 6, 5, 3, 6, 6, 4, 1, 6, 1, 6, 4, 5, 2, 1, 4, 6, 1, 6, 1, 6, 4, 4, 3, 3, 6, 2, 3, 5, 4, 2, 1, 4, 6, 3, 4, 5, 1, 4, 4, 1, 3, 1, 6, 5, 2, 4, 4, 2, 3, 5, 2, 6, 3, 5, 2, 3, 6, 5, 1, 4, 6, 2, 1, 6, 5, 5, 4, 5, 2, 1, 5, 4, 2, 5, 3, 4, 2, 6, 6, 4, 5, 1, 4, 1)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 39120@2: (5, 6, 3, 5, 4, 4, 3, 4, 5, 3, 3, 3, 1, 1, 2, 3, 1, 1, 6, 3, 5, 2, 6, 6, 2, 6, 4, 1, 6, 1, 1, 5, 6, 4, 4, 4, 2, 6, 2, 6, 3, 4, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 5, 5, 6, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3, 4, 1, 6, 4, 1, 1, 5, 5, 1, 3, 3, 5, 4, 3, 6, 4, 5, 4, 1, 2, 2, 5, 2, 1, 3, 1, 2, 6, 3, 3, 2, 6, 4, 2, 4, 4, 3, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 1, 1, 2, 1, 4, 6, 4, 4, 2, 6, 3, 4, 6, 5, 4, 2, 5, 1, 5, 6, 1, 2, 2) -
The best roll had 47 hits, 7more than expected is nothing in a 120dice count.
Indeed you had bad dices on your side, still this can be expected unfortunately. And I think it’s part of the fun of the game. If you can predict the outcome of a battle 100% of the times, the game become boring.
You had 86% chances of winning that battle. I guess the 14% striked you back.
14% is not that hard to achieve, it happens around 1/6 of the times.
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In my local game group I’m not very lucky, actually I’m always very cursed with the dices. I still win the games though, 'cause they’re not as experienced as I am.
In one game I was able to lose India with something like:
12inf 10rtl 3arm 12+ aircrafts
vs
20inf -
the fact that it came down to a battle the axis could have won, and possibly won the game if they won the battle, is some indication that the game isn’t horribly unbalanced – now I realize that you and Jen want to teach me how a crush Russia strategy will unbalance this setup.
Truthfully, although this is interesting for me - and I really believe this plays out like WWII more than any other version, I think we need to give the new Krieghund modifications a chance.
Amazing how we had a major battle in Ukraine in the Winter of 1943-44, how the italians pushed on Stalingrad - albeit from a different direction in Winter 1942-43, how the destroyer-submarine warfare in DEI played out.
The stalemate in the Pacific is a bit of a problem; however, even the standard 1940 game doesn’t really promote action that reminds me of the actual war. I think we need cheaper transports and amphib assault rules.
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and thanks for at least acknowledging that I had some bad dice in that last battle.
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you hit 54 out of 121 in your opening round, in your simulated results right now, you didn’t even get close to that, best of 10 was 47 hits, 7 less than what actually occurred, so I stand by my statement that the result was flukey.
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believe it or not, once I survived the aa gun shots with only 1 hit, my chances were even above 90%, the chance of the aa hitting 2 or 3 planes is what kept the original odds around 90%.
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