@The_Good_Captain Game History
Round: 1 Combat Move - Germans 1 mech and 2 tanks moved from El Agheila to Zella 1 mech, 1 scoutcar and 2 tanks moved from Zella to Mersa Brega 1 G-antitank and 1 artillery moved from El Agheila to Mersa Brega 1 G-bomber and 1 G-fighter moved from Tripoli to Mersa Brega Combat - Germans Non Combat Move - Germans Trigger AddCoastRoadTripoli: Germans has 1 coast_road placed in Tripoli Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from El Agheila: 1 5-supply EDIT: Adding units owned by Italians to El Agheila: 3 1-supplys EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Mersa Brega: 1 5-supply EDIT: Adding units owned by Uncontrolled to Mersa Brega: 3 1-supplys EDIT: Removing units owned by Italians from El Agheila: 2 1-supplys EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Mersa Brega: 1 scoutcar EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Mersa Brega: 1 artillery and 1 mech EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Mersa Brega: 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 matilda EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Mersa Brega: 1 UK-truck EDIT: Adding units owned by Germans to Mersa Brega: 1 UK-truck EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Trigger RemoveCoastRoadTripoli: has removed 1 coast_road owned by Germans in Tripoli 1 G-bomber and 1 G-fighter moved from Mersa Brega to El Agheila 1 mech moved from Tripoli to Mersa Brega Place Units - Germans 1 1-supply and 2 G-fighters placed in Tripoli Convoy G Assign Convoy Escorts - Germans Trigger AllowGermanFighterToStayAtSea: Setting carrierCost to 0 for unitAttachment attached to G-fighter Trigger AllowGermanBomberToStayAtSea: Setting carrierCost to 0 for unitAttachment attached to G-bomber Trigger ReduceMovementGermanAircraft: Setting movement to 2 for unitAttachment attached to G-fighter Trigger ReduceMovementGermanAircraft: Setting movement to 2 for unitAttachment attached to G-bomber Trigger 1British5-supplyCairo: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2British1-supplyMalta: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British1-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2British5-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2British1-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2German1-supplyTripoli: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2British1-supplyBenghazi: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British5-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 3British1-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 3British1-supplyBenghazi: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British1-supplyBenghazi: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1German1-supplyTripoli Convoy G: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 3German1-supplyTripoli: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1Italian1-supplyEl Agheila: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1German1-supplyTripoli: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British1-supplyMalta: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 3British5-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger IncreaseAircraftMovementTo4: Setting movement to 4 for unitAttachment attached to G-fighter Trigger IncreaseAircraftMovementTo4: Setting movement to 4 for unitAttachment attached to G-bomber 1 G-bomber moved from Sicily to Sea Zone 13 2 G-fighters moved from Tripoli Convoy G to Sea Zone 13 End Turn - Germans Germans collect 0 PUs; end with 4 PUs Objective Germans Base Income: Germans met a national objective for an additional 25 PUs; end with 29 PUsExperimental Alpha 4 Game - Wrongway Corrigan vs. Noll
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since the expected number of hits is 6, probably greater than you believe, certainly greater than 5%,
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Something like 45% instead of 33% in the attacker favor? :-D
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Anyway I had something in mind but it might need a lot of tweak.
Removing Anzac to play, making Australia part of UK, making UK a very big power, giving it also the Anzac NOs.
Removing 10 to 20 NOs from USA.
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Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 416@2: (4, 2, 5, 3, 6, 1, 3, 5, 6, 5, 4, 6, 4, 1, 4, 1)1@4: (6)
Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 816@2: (4, 5, 1, 3, 1, 4, 2, 1, 5, 2, 2, 6, 2, 2, 4, 4)1@4: (6)
Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 616@2: (6, 3, 1, 2, 1, 1, 6, 5, 6, 4, 6, 3, 4, 6, 1, 3)1@4: (1)
Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 716@2: (4, 4, 4, 5, 4, 2, 6, 6, 2, 1, 1, 5, 4, 1, 4, 1)1@4: (1)
Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 916@2: (6, 2, 1, 6, 1, 1, 3, 1, 3, 1, 6, 4, 4, 6, 2, 1)1@4: (3)
Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 516@2: (6, 5, 5, 6, 4, 1, 1, 5, 5, 5, 5, 2, 6, 6, 2, 1)1@4: (6)
Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 1216@2: (1, 2, 1, 3, 2, 3, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 4, 2, 6)1@4: (3)
Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 716@2: (1, 4, 3, 2, 2, 1, 6, 1, 3, 6, 6, 5, 1, 6, 5, 2)1@4: (6)
Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 316@2: (2, 4, 3, 5, 5, 3, 5, 6, 5, 6, 3, 6, 5, 6, 1, 3)1@4: (2)
Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 616@2: (2, 5, 3, 2, 5, 6, 2, 4, 4, 2, 4, 2, 3, 3, 4, 1)1@4: (6) -
less than 5hits = 2/10
6+ hits = 7/105%? :-D
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I said certainly greater than 5%.
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try 121 shots at 2, 10 times or even a hundred times. Then try 12 shots at 2, you’ll see there’s a lot more variability as a percentage of the expected in the smaller number of dice.
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of course.
Things get “standard” on bigger numbers actually. Something like 1000dices.
For example the 120 dices
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 33120@2: (4, 6, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 2, 3, 6, 6, 6, 3, 6, 3, 1, 1, 5, 3, 1, 1, 5, 5, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 4, 4, 2, 4, 5, 6, 6, 1, 6, 6, 6, 3, 5, 3, 4, 6, 2, 6, 6, 2, 4, 5, 5, 2, 2, 2, 6, 1, 5, 3, 2, 3, 1, 4, 6, 5, 4, 6, 5, 4, 5, 5, 6, 4, 2, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 5, 6, 2, 4, 2, 4, 5, 1, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6, 4, 3, 6, 3, 6, 5, 2, 3, 4, 1, 3, 1, 2, 5, 4, 5, 1, 6, 4, 6, 1, 1, 1, 4, 6)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 43120@2: (2, 2, 3, 5, 6, 2, 3, 3, 2, 6, 2, 6, 1, 5, 3, 1, 1, 4, 3, 6, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 6, 1, 5, 1, 5, 4, 3, 1, 6, 2, 6, 2, 5, 2, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 6, 5, 4, 4, 1, 4, 4, 2, 4, 4, 6, 4, 5, 5, 5, 4, 2, 1, 4, 2, 3, 4, 4, 1, 6, 1, 5, 4, 4, 2, 6, 4, 1, 4, 1, 2, 1, 5, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 6, 6, 3, 1, 3, 5, 4, 1, 3, 4, 6, 3, 2, 4, 1, 4, 4, 5, 4, 1, 6, 5, 1, 4, 2, 5, 1, 5, 1, 2)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 36120@2: (6, 1, 1, 3, 1, 4, 2, 4, 4, 4, 2, 4, 1, 4, 1, 2, 2, 5, 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, 6, 3, 6, 5, 3, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 5, 1, 6, 3, 2, 4, 6, 6, 6, 4, 6, 4, 5, 1, 5, 3, 6, 4, 2, 5, 2, 1, 1, 2, 6, 4, 6, 5, 2, 4, 4, 1, 5, 3, 3, 1, 1, 3, 1, 1, 6, 6, 4, 5, 1, 2, 1, 1, 5, 3, 5, 6, 3, 6, 1, 2, 3, 1, 6, 5, 5, 3, 5, 4, 6, 1, 5, 1, 4, 5, 2, 4, 4, 5, 2, 5, 1, 3, 5, 5, 5, 4, 5, 2, 4, 6, 3)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 37120@2: (6, 1, 3, 5, 6, 6, 3, 3, 6, 4, 1, 1, 1, 5, 2, 4, 3, 1, 6, 2, 1, 2, 6, 6, 6, 4, 5, 1, 1, 4, 4, 1, 5, 1, 5, 4, 1, 2, 6, 1, 6, 1, 1, 6, 6, 3, 4, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 4, 3, 5, 2, 1, 6, 3, 5, 4, 3, 3, 5, 2, 1, 5, 4, 1, 5, 3, 1, 6, 2, 1, 3, 6, 3, 6, 3, 1, 3, 2, 5, 6, 6, 6, 1, 5, 2, 6, 3, 5, 3, 1, 6, 3, 5, 3, 3, 4, 5, 4, 4, 1, 5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 2, 3, 5, 6, 3, 4, 6, 4)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 41120@2: (3, 1, 3, 5, 6, 5, 5, 5, 1, 4, 2, 4, 2, 1, 1, 6, 2, 6, 1, 3, 6, 1, 6, 2, 4, 4, 2, 6, 1, 1, 4, 4, 2, 6, 2, 1, 4, 1, 6, 5, 5, 2, 3, 1, 3, 4, 1, 4, 3, 1, 1, 3, 1, 6, 4, 4, 3, 6, 4, 4, 6, 1, 1, 2, 6, 3, 3, 4, 4, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 3, 6, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 4, 4, 4, 1, 6, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 4, 2, 1, 1, 5, 3, 4, 2, 6, 2, 4, 6, 4, 1, 3, 2, 4, 1, 2, 2, 4, 6, 2, 4, 3) -
Expected result is 40 so my rolls where quite balanced.
Let’s try again
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 35120@2: (5, 3, 3, 6, 3, 4, 4, 4, 1, 1, 2, 2, 6, 1, 3, 1, 5, 3, 1, 6, 6, 3, 3, 6, 5, 6, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 1, 5, 1, 1, 2, 5, 4, 6, 5, 5, 1, 1, 4, 2, 4, 5, 1, 6, 5, 1, 5, 1, 3, 4, 6, 3, 1, 2, 6, 3, 6, 6, 2, 1, 6, 3, 5, 4, 2, 4, 2, 3, 5, 6, 5, 2, 4, 5, 1, 3, 5, 5, 4, 2, 3, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 6, 4, 4, 2, 4, 3, 4, 3, 1, 5, 1, 2, 2, 5, 2, 6, 6, 5, 4, 6, 2, 3, 5, 5, 5, 2, 2, 4, 5)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 42120@2: (6, 2, 5, 4, 5, 6, 2, 2, 4, 4, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 5, 3, 2, 4, 1, 1, 6, 4, 6, 4, 3, 1, 5, 1, 6, 5, 2, 5, 2, 1, 5, 4, 2, 2, 1, 4, 5, 5, 2, 3, 1, 1, 6, 3, 5, 1, 3, 4, 4, 3, 1, 1, 4, 6, 1, 4, 5, 3, 2, 6, 3, 6, 4, 5, 2, 5, 2, 1, 3, 4, 3, 4, 4, 2, 1, 2, 2, 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 1, 3, 6, 1, 6, 4, 4, 2, 4, 6, 2, 1, 5, 4, 5, 1, 4, 2, 4, 6, 6, 1, 2, 6, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 47120@2: (5, 1, 4, 5, 5, 1, 6, 2, 1, 1, 3, 5, 5, 2, 6, 2, 3, 3, 2, 3, 4, 3, 2, 6, 6, 5, 1, 3, 1, 3, 5, 5, 3, 2, 4, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 6, 2, 2, 2, 1, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6, 1, 2, 2, 6, 2, 6, 1, 4, 6, 3, 3, 5, 6, 5, 2, 2, 1, 5, 5, 4, 2, 5, 6, 4, 6, 1, 2, 3, 4, 1, 3, 4, 2, 5, 4, 4, 4, 5, 1, 4, 2, 4, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 6, 3, 5, 5, 1, 4, 5, 2, 1, 3, 2, 4, 1, 4, 2, 4, 1, 6, 2)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 35120@2: (2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 4, 6, 1, 6, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 5, 5, 4, 3, 4, 6, 4, 6, 2, 2, 6, 5, 3, 4, 5, 3, 5, 1, 5, 2, 5, 3, 6, 5, 3, 6, 6, 4, 1, 6, 1, 6, 4, 5, 2, 1, 4, 6, 1, 6, 1, 6, 4, 4, 3, 3, 6, 2, 3, 5, 4, 2, 1, 4, 6, 3, 4, 5, 1, 4, 4, 1, 3, 1, 6, 5, 2, 4, 4, 2, 3, 5, 2, 6, 3, 5, 2, 3, 6, 5, 1, 4, 6, 2, 1, 6, 5, 5, 4, 5, 2, 1, 5, 4, 2, 5, 3, 4, 2, 6, 6, 4, 5, 1, 4, 1)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 39120@2: (5, 6, 3, 5, 4, 4, 3, 4, 5, 3, 3, 3, 1, 1, 2, 3, 1, 1, 6, 3, 5, 2, 6, 6, 2, 6, 4, 1, 6, 1, 1, 5, 6, 4, 4, 4, 2, 6, 2, 6, 3, 4, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 5, 5, 6, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3, 4, 1, 6, 4, 1, 1, 5, 5, 1, 3, 3, 5, 4, 3, 6, 4, 5, 4, 1, 2, 2, 5, 2, 1, 3, 1, 2, 6, 3, 3, 2, 6, 4, 2, 4, 4, 3, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 1, 1, 2, 1, 4, 6, 4, 4, 2, 6, 3, 4, 6, 5, 4, 2, 5, 1, 5, 6, 1, 2, 2) -
The best roll had 47 hits, 7more than expected is nothing in a 120dice count.
Indeed you had bad dices on your side, still this can be expected unfortunately. And I think it’s part of the fun of the game. If you can predict the outcome of a battle 100% of the times, the game become boring.
You had 86% chances of winning that battle. I guess the 14% striked you back.
14% is not that hard to achieve, it happens around 1/6 of the times.
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In my local game group I’m not very lucky, actually I’m always very cursed with the dices. I still win the games though, 'cause they’re not as experienced as I am.
In one game I was able to lose India with something like:
12inf 10rtl 3arm 12+ aircrafts
vs
20inf -
the fact that it came down to a battle the axis could have won, and possibly won the game if they won the battle, is some indication that the game isn’t horribly unbalanced – now I realize that you and Jen want to teach me how a crush Russia strategy will unbalance this setup.
Truthfully, although this is interesting for me - and I really believe this plays out like WWII more than any other version, I think we need to give the new Krieghund modifications a chance.
Amazing how we had a major battle in Ukraine in the Winter of 1943-44, how the italians pushed on Stalingrad - albeit from a different direction in Winter 1942-43, how the destroyer-submarine warfare in DEI played out.
The stalemate in the Pacific is a bit of a problem; however, even the standard 1940 game doesn’t really promote action that reminds me of the actual war. I think we need cheaper transports and amphib assault rules.
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and thanks for at least acknowledging that I had some bad dice in that last battle.
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you hit 54 out of 121 in your opening round, in your simulated results right now, you didn’t even get close to that, best of 10 was 47 hits, 7 less than what actually occurred, so I stand by my statement that the result was flukey.
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believe it or not, once I survived the aa gun shots with only 1 hit, my chances were even above 90%, the chance of the aa hitting 2 or 3 planes is what kept the original odds around 90%.
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