Experimental Alpha 4 Game - Wrongway Corrigan vs. Noll

Noll

and for you taking back Java was costly, and that was my point

you get back 9 ipcs but you pay at least 13 for it.

corriganbp

ok - but I don’t believe that the game came down to that.

Noll

66% of giving you 1hit x3 rounds is luck?

corriganbp

but you sacrifice more than 13 to get it. Â

Noll

What I mean is that I don’t cry bad luck for all the things that happened to me in this game, so it always sounds like I’m the only one getting lucky rolls.

corriganbp

I’m not crying here, I’m just trying to confirm that I can trust the odds calculators or not.

Noll

also, what’s the chance of 4dd in 4different seazones all hitting me back?

Making me lose 1anzac fighter, 1american fighter, 1submarine, 1dd?

corriganbp

although it is a shame, because it would have been awesome to play out the game with the expected result.

corriganbp

I think we agree that this is a game of dice, and the dice can be crazy.

corriganbp

anyway, at the end of the day, I’m not ready to comment on balance after 1 game, but I do believe that it played out like WW II.

corriganbp

1.) UK fleet in 91, 98, 110, 112 move to 111 (includes tac bomb on cv)
2.) Naval base in Scotland
3.) airbase on Gibraltar
4.) fighter on Malta and gib removed, moved to Scotland
5.) interceptors shoot at 2
6.) USSR Dow rights delayed to Round 6
7.) USA DOW rights delayed to Round 8
8.) One consolidated income for UK, to be used as they see fit
9.) Amphib Assaults attack at -1
10.) France and Italy switch sides?

Noll

I wanna add something else to the luck factor

what’s the chance of 16chinese inf +1chinese fig hitting 4 total in defense?

Noll

@corriganbp:

1.) UK fleet in 91, 98, 110, 112 move to 111 (includes tac bomb on cv)
2.) Naval base in Scotland
3.) airbase on Gibraltar
4.) fighter on Malta and gib removed, moved to Scotland
5.) interceptors shoot at 2
6.) USSR Dow rights delayed to Round 6
7.) USA DOW rights delayed “end of” Round 8
8.) One consolidated income for UK, to be used as they see fit

France and Italy switch sides = no! It’s too complicated, also, if Italy switches side I think it will help the Axis more xD

corriganbp

since the expected number of hits is 6, probably greater than you believe, certainly greater than 5%,

Noll

Something like 45% instead of 33% in the attacker favor? :-D

Noll

Anyway I had something in mind but it might need a lot of tweak.

Removing Anzac to play, making Australia part of UK, making UK a very big power, giving it also the Anzac NOs.

Removing 10 to 20 NOs from USA.

Noll

Dice Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 416@2: (4, 2, 5, 3, 6, 1, 3, 5, 6, 5, 4, 6, 4, 1, 4, 1)1@4: (6)
Dice Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 816@2: (4, 5, 1, 3, 1, 4, 2, 1, 5, 2, 2, 6, 2, 2, 4, 4)1@4: (6)
Dice Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 616@2: (6, 3, 1, 2, 1, 1, 6, 5, 6, 4, 6, 3, 4, 6, 1, 3)1@4: (1)
Dice Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 716@2: (4, 4, 4, 5, 4, 2, 6, 6, 2, 1, 1, 5, 4, 1, 4, 1)1@4: (1)
Dice Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 916@2: (6, 2, 1, 6, 1, 1, 3, 1, 3, 1, 6, 4, 4, 6, 2, 1)1@4: (3)
Dice Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 516@2: (6, 5, 5, 6, 4, 1, 1, 5, 5, 5, 5, 2, 6, 6, 2, 1)1@4: (6)
Dice Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 1216@2: (1, 2, 1, 3, 2, 3, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 4, 2, 6)1@4: (3)
Dice Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 716@2: (1, 4, 3, 2, 2, 1, 6, 1, 3, 6, 6, 5, 1, 6, 5, 2)1@4: (6)
Dice Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 316@2: (2, 4, 3, 5, 5, 3, 5, 6, 5, 6, 3, 6, 5, 6, 1, 3)1@4: (2)
Dice Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 616@2: (2, 5, 3, 2, 5, 6, 2, 4, 4, 2, 4, 2, 3, 3, 4, 1)1@4: (6)

Noll

less than 5hits = 2/10
6+ hits = 7/10

5%? :-D

corriganbp

I said certainly greater than 5%.

corriganbp

try 121 shots at 2, 10 times or even a hundred times. Then try 12 shots at 2, you’ll see there’s a lot more variability as a percentage of the expected in the smaller number of dice.

Experimental Alpha 4 Game - Wrongway Corrigan vs. Noll

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