@The_Good_Captain Game History
Round: 5 Place Submarines - Germans 3 submarines placed in Sea Zone 1 Combat Move - Germans Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode 3 submarines moved from Sea Zone 1 to Sea Zone 8 1 G-bomber and 1 G-fighter moved from Sicily to Sea Zone 8 1 G-bomber and 4 G-fighters moved from El Agheila to Tobruk 2 mechs moved from Mersa Brega to Benghazi 1 G-antitank, 3 artilleries, 1 infantry and 2 mechs moved from Benghazi to Tobruk 1 scoutcar moved from Mersa Brega to Bir Hacheim Combat - Germans Battle in Sea Zone 8 Germans attack with 1 G-bomber, 1 G-fighter and 3 submarines British defend with 1 UK-destroyer and 2 battleships Germans roll dice for 3 submarines in Sea Zone 8, round 2 : 5,9,1 Germans roll dice for 1 G-bomber and 1 G-fighter in Sea Zone 8, round 2 : 7,10 British roll dice for 1 UK-destroyer and 2 battleships in Sea Zone 8, round 2 : 6,8,7 1 UK-destroyer owned by the British lost in Sea Zone 8 Germans roll dice for 2 submarines in Sea Zone 8, round 3 : 6,9 Germans roll dice for 1 G-bomber and 1 G-fighter in Sea Zone 8, round 3 : 3,4 British roll dice for 2 battleships in Sea Zone 8, round 3 : 8,3 Germans win with 1 G-bomber, 1 G-fighter and 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 22 Casualties for Germans: 2 submarines Casualties for British: 1 UK-destroyer and 2 battleships Non Combat Move - Germans Trigger AddCoastRoadTripoli: Germans has 1 coast_road placed in Tripoli Trigger AddCoastRoadBenghazi: Germans has 1 coast_road placed in Benghazi Trigger AddCoastRoadMersa Brega: Germans has 1 coast_road placed in Mersa Brega Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Sea Zone 8: 1 G-bomber and 1 submarine EDIT: Adding units owned by British to Sea Zone 8: 1 battleship EDIT: Changing unit hit damage for these British owned units to: battleship = 1 EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Tobruk: 1 G-bomber and 2 G-fighters EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Tobruk: 1 UK-aaGun, 1 UK-antitank, 1 UK-fighter and 1 matilda EDIT: Changing ownership of Tobruk from British to Germans EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Trigger RemoveCoastRoadBenghazi: has removed 1 coast_road owned by Germans in Benghazi 1 G-fighter moved from Sea Zone 8 to Italy EDIT: 1 scoutcar moved from Bir Hacheim to Tobruk 2 G-fighters moved from Tobruk to Benghazi 2 tanks moved from Mersa Brega to Tobruk 1 UK-truck moved from Tripoli to Benghazi Place Units - Germans 1 1-supply placed in Benghazi Convoy G Assign Convoy Escorts - Germans Trigger SetGermanAircraftToKamikaze: Setting isKamikaze to true for unitAttachment attached to G-fighter Trigger SetGermanAircraftToKamikaze: Setting isKamikaze to true for unitAttachment attached to G-bomber Trigger ReduceMovementGermanAircraft: Setting movement to 2 for unitAttachment attached to G-fighter Trigger ReduceMovementGermanAircraft: Setting movement to 2 for unitAttachment attached to G-bomber Trigger RemoveSupplySaharaDesert: has removed 7 1-supplys and 5 5-supplys owned by Uncontrolled in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British5-supplyCairo: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1Italian1-supplyBenghazi Convoy I: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2British5-supplyCairo: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1German1-supplyBenghazi Convoy G: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British1-supplyCairo: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2German1-supplyBenghazi: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 3British5-supplyCairo: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British5-supplyMersa Matruh: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1German1-supplyBenghazi: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British1-supplyMalta Convoy: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1German1-supplyTripoli: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2British1-supplyCairo: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1German5-supplyBenghazi: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger IncreaseAircraftMovementTo4: Setting movement to 4 for unitAttachment attached to G-fighter Trigger IncreaseAircraftMovementTo4: Setting movement to 4 for unitAttachment attached to G-bomber Trigger RemoveKamikaze: Setting isKamikaze to false for unitAttachment attached to G-fighter Trigger RemoveKamikaze: Setting isKamikaze to false for unitAttachment attached to G-bomber Trigger AddCarrierToSea Zone 15Germans: Germans has 1 carrier placed in Sea Zone 15 1 G-fighter moved from Italy to Sea Zone 15 End Turn - Germans Germans collect 0 PUs; end with 0 PUs Objective Germans Base Income: Germans met a national objective for an additional 25 PUs; end with 25 PUsExperimental Alpha 4 Game - Wrongway Corrigan vs. Noll
-
In battles like that everything is decided round#1, and I’m sure you know it.
-
Expected number of hits with 121 shots at 2 = 121/3 = 40.33.
Variance of the distribution is 121 x (1/3) x (2/3) = 26.89.
St Deviation = sqr (26.89) = 5.19.
You got 48 hits, so that’s 48 - 40.33 = 7.67 or 7.67/5.19 = 1.48 standard deviations above the mean.
-
109 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
2 aa 74 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tacAttack
Rolls: 80@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 4680@1: (1, 4, 3, 6, 2, 1, 5, 6, 1, 5, 4, 1, 3, 4, 1, 5, 5, 2, 3, 1, 1, 6, 5, 2, 5, 6, 5, 6, 5, 2, 6, 5, 5, 3, 4, 1, 3, 3, 6, 4, 1, 4, 4, 4, 2, 4, 2, 6, 6, 4, 6, 1, 4, 4, 2, 2, 4, 6, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 4, 4, 1, 1, 6, 1, 4, 1, 4, 2, 4, 5, 5, 6, 5, 5)62@2: (4, 4, 5, 1, 2, 1, 2, 6, 1, 4, 1, 2, 5, 1, 3, 2, 5, 4, 3, 5, 4, 1, 5, 2, 2, 3, 6, 1, 2, 4, 6, 6, 2, 4, 6, 4, 5, 2, 3, 5, 5, 4, 1, 4, 5, 4, 6, 3, 1, 2, 1, 4, 2, 6, 5, 4, 2, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3)10@3: (3, 5, 1, 3, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 3)5@4: (2, 5, 6, 1, 2)
DefendRolls: 121@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 49121@2: (5, 3, 2, 1, 4, 6, 3, 4, 5, 6, 5, 3, 3, 3, 6, 6, 6, 5, 6, 2, 1, 5, 6, 6, 2, 3, 2, 6, 3, 2, 1, 1, 4, 3, 2, 2, 2, 4, 5, 6, 3, 4, 3, 6, 1, 3, 5, 6, 2, 5, 2, 2, 3, 2, 1, 5, 4, 2, 5, 6, 3, 6, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 1, 4, 3, 5, 1, 2, 5, 3, 1, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 2, 2, 1, 6, 5, 2, 4, 5, 5, 3, 6, 6, 4, 1, 2, 2, 1, 3, 5, 3, 1, 5, 4, 6, 2, 5, 5, 6, 3, 5, 6, 4, 6, 6, 4, 5, 2, 1)12@3: (3, 6, 4, 2, 5, 2, 3, 1, 3, 3, 3, 1)2@4: (6, 4) -
60 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
30 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tacAttack
Rolls: 31@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2531@1: (1, 1, 2, 6, 4, 3, 4, 4, 6, 1, 4, 1, 5, 4, 3, 3, 5, 6, 4, 6, 3, 3, 3, 2, 4, 2, 6, 5, 3, 5, 1)62@2: (4, 6, 3, 3, 3, 5, 6, 6, 5, 6, 4, 6, 5, 2, 2, 2, 6, 2, 5, 6, 4, 1, 2, 6, 4, 4, 5, 2, 6, 4, 3, 3, 3, 5, 5, 5, 4, 5, 5, 2, 5, 3, 2, 3, 4, 3, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 4, 5, 2, 1, 2, 6, 3, 2, 4, 6)10@3: (4, 6, 5, 3, 5, 2, 2, 4, 4, 6)5@4: (6, 5, 3, 3, 2)
DefendRolls: 77@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 3777@2: (1, 6, 6, 4, 3, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 4, 3, 6, 3, 1, 6, 1, 4, 4, 3, 5, 1, 6, 5, 1, 5, 2, 3, 1, 2, 3, 6, 5, 6, 1, 5, 6, 3, 6, 2, 4, 3, 5, 4, 6, 6, 3, 1, 4, 6, 3, 3, 1, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 2, 4, 1, 1, 3, 6, 1, 2, 6, 3, 2, 2, 1, 5, 1, 4)12@3: (4, 1, 6, 4, 4, 6, 1, 1, 6, 3, 2, 6)2@4: (5, 4) -
Please, stop this, you were unlucky, you can’t possibly lose any game if not by bad luck, that’s the point?
-
23 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
5 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tacAttack
Rolls: 56@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 3156@2: (1, 1, 4, 2, 6, 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 3, 4, 1, 5, 2, 2, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4, 6, 2, 6, 1, 1, 4, 2, 1, 4, 5, 3, 4, 5, 5, 1, 3, 2, 5, 1, 1, 1, 4, 2, 6, 6, 4, 4, 5, 2, 3, 3, 2)10@3: (5, 2, 2, 5, 5, 4, 6, 3, 2, 3)5@4: (1, 1, 1, 1, 3)
DefendRolls: 52@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 1952@2: (2, 6, 4, 3, 6, 1, 5, 6, 1, 2, 4, 6, 3, 1, 2, 5, 5, 3, 6, 4, 2, 4, 3, 5, 5, 6, 5, 5, 6, 5, 2, 1, 4, 5, 4, 4, 6, 2, 4, 1, 3, 1, 6, 6, 2, 1, 4, 6, 4, 4, 3, 5)12@3: (1, 6, 3, 6, 5, 1, 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 4)2@4: (4, 3) -
4 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
21 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tacAttack
Rolls: 37@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2637@2: (2, 5, 2, 4, 6, 5, 2, 5, 6, 6, 3, 3, 4, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 1, 2, 2, 2, 1, 3, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 6, 3, 5, 6, 1)10@3: (1, 4, 1, 6, 6, 4, 3, 6, 5, 5)5@4: (3, 3, 4, 4, 4)
DefendRolls: 21@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 1821@2: (5, 5, 5, 2, 1, 1, 3, 2, 1, 3, 4, 1, 5, 2, 6, 6, 2, 3, 6, 2, 3)12@3: (3, 5, 3, 2, 3, 5, 4, 1, 2, 2, 6, 1)2@4: (6, 2) -
19 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
6 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tacAttack
Rolls: 19@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 1319@2: (5, 3, 6, 5, 4, 2, 4, 3, 4, 6, 3, 6, 6, 5, 2, 1, 5, 5, 2)10@3: (2, 1, 2, 5, 6, 5, 2, 1, 2, 5)5@4: (2, 5, 3, 5, 4)
DefendRolls: 7@3 2@4; Total Hits: 57@3: (2, 2, 5, 5, 5, 3, 5)2@4: (1, 2) -
56@2 10@3 5@4 = 31hits
52@2 12@3 2@4 = 19hitshow’s the luck in this battle? Favor anyone?
-
taken with 14 arts and 9 tanks, again a reasonable outcome
-
reasonable outcome
56@2 10@3 5@4 = 31hits
52@2 12@3 2@4 = 19hitsRolls: 56@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2656@2: (2, 6, 4, 5, 4, 5, 3, 5, 2, 6, 1, 4, 5, 5, 3, 4, 3, 4, 5, 1, 4, 4, 6, 4, 5, 1, 6, 2, 2, 3, 1, 4, 2, 4, 3, 6, 3, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 3, 3, 4, 5, 1, 1, 3, 5, 1, 6, 2, 1, 4, 1)10@3: (2, 4, 3, 4, 6, 3, 1, 2, 1, 3)5@4: (2, 3, 2, 6, 2)
Rolls: 52@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 2552@2: (6, 5, 4, 3, 3, 2, 3, 3, 4, 2, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2, 4, 6, 5, 6, 3, 5, 2, 4, 6, 2, 1, 1, 5, 2, 1, 6, 2, 6, 3, 4, 2, 5, 1, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 5, 5, 2, 2, 5, 6, 1, 2, 4)12@3: (3, 5, 4, 5, 6, 4, 3, 1, 5, 3, 3, 4)2@4: (6, 1) -
you hit with 9 out of 12 of your shots at 3 in the first round though, and the overall outcome is pretty close to what was predicted.
-
Rolls: 31@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 1831@2: (4, 5, 3, 1, 2, 4, 6, 3, 2, 3, 2, 5, 3, 6, 1, 1, 5, 4, 2, 4, 1, 3, 6, 1, 5, 6, 6, 6, 5, 2, 4)10@3: (2, 6, 6, 3, 1, 3, 2, 4, 5, 4)5@4: (5, 4, 1, 4, 5)
Rolls: 26@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 1726@2: (2, 3, 2, 3, 6, 2, 5, 5, 3, 4, 5, 3, 3, 3, 4, 1, 5, 4, 1, 1, 5, 4, 2, 2, 2, 6)12@3: (1, 6, 1, 5, 4, 2, 1, 5, 4, 1, 1, 3)2@4: (6, 4) -
Rolls: 14@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 1414@2: (1, 1, 3, 3, 1, 6, 4, 3, 1, 1, 6, 2, 3, 6)10@3: (5, 6, 3, 2, 4, 6, 5, 3, 6, 2)5@4: (1, 3, 2, 5, 3)
Rolls: 8@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 148@2: (2, 5, 3, 2, 2, 6, 2, 1)12@3: (3, 4, 1, 3, 3, 2, 5, 3, 1, 5, 6, 2)2@4: (2, 5) -
Rolls: 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 610@3: (1, 2, 6, 3, 6, 4, 4, 6, 5, 6)5@4: (6, 3, 3, 5, 2)
Rolls: 8@3 2@4; Total Hits: 48@3: (4, 2, 4, 1, 5, 2, 4, 5)2@4: (4, 5) -
I’ll wait until your done and then roll this a 4th time.
-
Rolls: 6@3 5@4; Total Hits: 66@3: (3, 6, 5, 6, 3, 1)5@4: (4, 6, 1, 3, 5)
Rolls: 2@3 2@4; Total Hits: 32@3: (3, 5)2@4: (4, 3) -
Won with 3arm 3tac 2bmb
18+33+24 = 63 IPCs left, 37 less than expected.
average outcome? No way, either you get lucky or you are cursed by unluck
-
Rolling 4times this:
56@2 10@3 5@4 = 31hits
52@2 12@3 2@4 = 19hitsRolls: 56@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 3756@2: (1, 6, 3, 6, 5, 3, 2, 2, 3, 1, 2, 1, 1, 6, 4, 1, 6, 4, 1, 1, 5, 3, 5, 2, 5, 5, 6, 6, 4, 1, 4, 4, 1, 1, 4, 5, 3, 6, 1, 6, 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 5, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 5, 6, 2, 3)10@3: (5, 1, 3, 3, 1, 1, 6, 2, 2, 4)5@4: (6, 4, 3, 6, 4)
Rolls: 52@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 2352@2: (3, 2, 5, 4, 3, 3, 5, 5, 5, 1, 6, 5, 5, 6, 6, 2, 4, 1, 4, 6, 1, 4, 6, 3, 5, 3, 2, 3, 6, 2, 1, 2, 4, 5, 5, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 3, 4, 4, 2, 3, 4, 3, 6, 4, 1, 6, 5)12@3: (5, 6, 1, 4, 2, 3, 1, 2, 4, 2, 3, 2)2@4: (1, 1)Rolls: 56@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 3056@2: (2, 2, 4, 6, 2, 1, 3, 6, 2, 6, 3, 5, 6, 1, 6, 5, 5, 5, 4, 6, 2, 6, 2, 3, 1, 6, 4, 4, 1, 4, 5, 2, 5, 2, 2, 1, 3, 4, 6, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 1, 1, 1, 5, 1, 2, 5, 2, 5, 5)10@3: (1, 2, 3, 2, 5, 1, 4, 4, 3, 5)5@4: (4, 5, 3, 3, 3)
Rolls: 52@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 2452@2: (6, 6, 6, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 2, 1, 3, 4, 5, 5, 2, 4, 5, 3, 1, 1, 2, 1, 4, 5, 3, 3, 3, 2, 5, 6, 4, 4, 5, 3, 6, 6, 5, 2, 2, 6, 3, 5, 4, 2, 3, 5, 6, 2, 2, 6, 2, 4)12@3: (6, 6, 3, 3, 2, 5, 5, 1, 4, 2, 5, 2)2@4: (5, 4)Rolls: 56@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2656@2: (2, 4, 6, 4, 3, 2, 2, 1, 4, 4, 6, 3, 6, 1, 2, 2, 5, 2, 1, 1, 5, 3, 6, 3, 3, 3, 5, 1, 5, 4, 5, 6, 1, 5, 3, 4, 6, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 6, 2, 4, 1, 3, 2, 3, 4, 3, 1, 6, 2, 3, 3)10@3: (4, 1, 4, 3, 4, 3, 3, 4, 1, 6)5@4: (1, 1, 4, 5, 4)
Rolls: 52@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 2152@2: (6, 1, 3, 2, 5, 4, 5, 6, 6, 2, 3, 1, 2, 4, 3, 5, 2, 3, 3, 4, 1, 5, 1, 5, 5, 6, 5, 5, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 6, 5, 2, 3, 3, 2, 3, 5, 4, 3, 6, 2, 5, 5, 3, 2, 1, 1, 3)12@3: (5, 1, 1, 4, 6, 6, 3, 3, 3, 5, 6, 6)2@4: (4, 4)Rolls: 56@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2756@2: (2, 1, 6, 3, 3, 4, 1, 6, 4, 2, 5, 3, 5, 6, 3, 6, 2, 2, 1, 3, 5, 6, 2, 1, 3, 4, 6, 2, 4, 4, 5, 5, 4, 5, 2, 1, 3, 2, 6, 1, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 6, 2, 5, 1, 2, 2, 6, 2, 3, 1, 4)10@3: (6, 6, 6, 3, 3, 5, 2, 1, 3, 3)5@4: (1, 6, 5, 6, 6)
Rolls: 52@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 2052@2: (2, 3, 3, 4, 6, 3, 5, 5, 3, 1, 6, 3, 2, 2, 3, 5, 2, 2, 5, 5, 5, 3, 6, 5, 6, 3, 5, 5, 1, 4, 5, 2, 1, 2, 6, 6, 4, 5, 4, 1, 5, 4, 3, 6, 6, 5, 5, 1, 1, 3, 6, 5)12@3: (6, 6, 3, 5, 2, 2, 4, 3, 6, 2, 5, 6)2@4: (4, 4) -
Never achieved 31/19
So, please, the point is you lost only by bad dices right? Can we stop this now?
Suggested Topics
