Experimental Alpha 4 Game - Wrongway Corrigan vs. Noll

corriganbp

of course it can happen, but it’s not likely, and there is absolutely no comparison between the outcome of the first vs. the second battle in terms of luck.

The first battle was absolutely flukey.

Noll

In battles like that everything is decided round#1, and I’m sure you know it.

corriganbp

Expected number of hits with 121 shots at 2 = 121/3 = 40.33.

Variance of the distribution is 121 x (1/3) x (2/3) = 26.89.

St Deviation = sqr (26.89) = 5.19.

You got 48 hits, so that’s 48 - 40.33 = 7.67 or 7.67/5.19 = 1.48 standard deviations above the mean.

corriganbp

109 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
2 aa 74 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

Attack Dice Rolls: 80@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 4680@1: (1, 4, 3, 6, 2, 1, 5, 6, 1, 5, 4, 1, 3, 4, 1, 5, 5, 2, 3, 1, 1, 6, 5, 2, 5, 6, 5, 6, 5, 2, 6, 5, 5, 3, 4, 1, 3, 3, 6, 4, 1, 4, 4, 4, 2, 4, 2, 6, 6, 4, 6, 1, 4, 4, 2, 2, 4, 6, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 4, 4, 1, 1, 6, 1, 4, 1, 4, 2, 4, 5, 5, 6, 5, 5)62@2: (4, 4, 5, 1, 2, 1, 2, 6, 1, 4, 1, 2, 5, 1, 3, 2, 5, 4, 3, 5, 4, 1, 5, 2, 2, 3, 6, 1, 2, 4, 6, 6, 2, 4, 6, 4, 5, 2, 3, 5, 5, 4, 1, 4, 5, 4, 6, 3, 1, 2, 1, 4, 2, 6, 5, 4, 2, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3)10@3: (3, 5, 1, 3, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 3)5@4: (2, 5, 6, 1, 2)
Defend Dice Rolls: 121@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 49121@2: (5, 3, 2, 1, 4, 6, 3, 4, 5, 6, 5, 3, 3, 3, 6, 6, 6, 5, 6, 2, 1, 5, 6, 6, 2, 3, 2, 6, 3, 2, 1, 1, 4, 3, 2, 2, 2, 4, 5, 6, 3, 4, 3, 6, 1, 3, 5, 6, 2, 5, 2, 2, 3, 2, 1, 5, 4, 2, 5, 6, 3, 6, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 1, 4, 3, 5, 1, 2, 5, 3, 1, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 2, 2, 1, 6, 5, 2, 4, 5, 5, 3, 6, 6, 4, 1, 2, 2, 1, 3, 5, 3, 1, 5, 4, 6, 2, 5, 5, 6, 3, 5, 6, 4, 6, 6, 4, 5, 2, 1)12@3: (3, 6, 4, 2, 5, 2, 3, 1, 3, 3, 3, 1)2@4: (6, 4)

corriganbp

60 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
30 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

Attack Dice Rolls: 31@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2531@1: (1, 1, 2, 6, 4, 3, 4, 4, 6, 1, 4, 1, 5, 4, 3, 3, 5, 6, 4, 6, 3, 3, 3, 2, 4, 2, 6, 5, 3, 5, 1)62@2: (4, 6, 3, 3, 3, 5, 6, 6, 5, 6, 4, 6, 5, 2, 2, 2, 6, 2, 5, 6, 4, 1, 2, 6, 4, 4, 5, 2, 6, 4, 3, 3, 3, 5, 5, 5, 4, 5, 5, 2, 5, 3, 2, 3, 4, 3, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 4, 5, 2, 1, 2, 6, 3, 2, 4, 6)10@3: (4, 6, 5, 3, 5, 2, 2, 4, 4, 6)5@4: (6, 5, 3, 3, 2)
Defend Dice Rolls: 77@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 3777@2: (1, 6, 6, 4, 3, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 4, 3, 6, 3, 1, 6, 1, 4, 4, 3, 5, 1, 6, 5, 1, 5, 2, 3, 1, 2, 3, 6, 5, 6, 1, 5, 6, 3, 6, 2, 4, 3, 5, 4, 6, 6, 3, 1, 4, 6, 3, 3, 1, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 2, 4, 1, 1, 3, 6, 1, 2, 6, 3, 2, 2, 1, 5, 1, 4)12@3: (4, 1, 6, 4, 4, 6, 1, 1, 6, 3, 2, 6)2@4: (5, 4)

Noll

Please, stop this, you were unlucky, you can’t possibly lose any game if not by bad luck, that’s the point?

corriganbp

23 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
5 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

Attack Dice Rolls: 56@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 3156@2: (1, 1, 4, 2, 6, 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 3, 4, 1, 5, 2, 2, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4, 6, 2, 6, 1, 1, 4, 2, 1, 4, 5, 3, 4, 5, 5, 1, 3, 2, 5, 1, 1, 1, 4, 2, 6, 6, 4, 4, 5, 2, 3, 3, 2)10@3: (5, 2, 2, 5, 5, 4, 6, 3, 2, 3)5@4: (1, 1, 1, 1, 3)
Defend Dice Rolls: 52@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 1952@2: (2, 6, 4, 3, 6, 1, 5, 6, 1, 2, 4, 6, 3, 1, 2, 5, 5, 3, 6, 4, 2, 4, 3, 5, 5, 6, 5, 5, 6, 5, 2, 1, 4, 5, 4, 4, 6, 2, 4, 1, 3, 1, 6, 6, 2, 1, 4, 6, 4, 4, 3, 5)12@3: (1, 6, 3, 6, 5, 1, 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 4)2@4: (4, 3)

corriganbp

4 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
21 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

Attack Dice Rolls: 37@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2637@2: (2, 5, 2, 4, 6, 5, 2, 5, 6, 6, 3, 3, 4, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 1, 2, 2, 2, 1, 3, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 6, 3, 5, 6, 1)10@3: (1, 4, 1, 6, 6, 4, 3, 6, 5, 5)5@4: (3, 3, 4, 4, 4)
Defend Dice Rolls: 21@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 1821@2: (5, 5, 5, 2, 1, 1, 3, 2, 1, 3, 4, 1, 5, 2, 6, 6, 2, 3, 6, 2, 3)12@3: (3, 5, 3, 2, 3, 5, 4, 1, 2, 2, 6, 1)2@4: (6, 2)

corriganbp

19 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
6 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

Attack Dice Rolls: 19@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 1319@2: (5, 3, 6, 5, 4, 2, 4, 3, 4, 6, 3, 6, 6, 5, 2, 1, 5, 5, 2)10@3: (2, 1, 2, 5, 6, 5, 2, 1, 2, 5)5@4: (2, 5, 3, 5, 4)
Defend Dice Rolls: 7@3 2@4; Total Hits: 57@3: (2, 2, 5, 5, 5, 3, 5)2@4: (1, 2)

Noll

56@2 10@3 5@4 = 31hits
52@2 12@3 2@4 = 19hits

how’s the luck in this battle? Favor anyone?

corriganbp

taken with 14 arts and 9 tanks, again a reasonable outcome

Noll

reasonable outcome

56@2 10@3 5@4 = 31hits
52@2 12@3 2@4 = 19hits

Dice Rolls: 56@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2656@2: (2, 6, 4, 5, 4, 5, 3, 5, 2, 6, 1, 4, 5, 5, 3, 4, 3, 4, 5, 1, 4, 4, 6, 4, 5, 1, 6, 2, 2, 3, 1, 4, 2, 4, 3, 6, 3, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 3, 3, 4, 5, 1, 1, 3, 5, 1, 6, 2, 1, 4, 1)10@3: (2, 4, 3, 4, 6, 3, 1, 2, 1, 3)5@4: (2, 3, 2, 6, 2)
Dice Rolls: 52@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 2552@2: (6, 5, 4, 3, 3, 2, 3, 3, 4, 2, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2, 4, 6, 5, 6, 3, 5, 2, 4, 6, 2, 1, 1, 5, 2, 1, 6, 2, 6, 3, 4, 2, 5, 1, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 5, 5, 2, 2, 5, 6, 1, 2, 4)12@3: (3, 5, 4, 5, 6, 4, 3, 1, 5, 3, 3, 4)2@4: (6, 1)

corriganbp

you hit with 9 out of 12 of your shots at 3 in the first round though, and the overall outcome is pretty close to what was predicted.

Noll

Dice Rolls: 31@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 1831@2: (4, 5, 3, 1, 2, 4, 6, 3, 2, 3, 2, 5, 3, 6, 1, 1, 5, 4, 2, 4, 1, 3, 6, 1, 5, 6, 6, 6, 5, 2, 4)10@3: (2, 6, 6, 3, 1, 3, 2, 4, 5, 4)5@4: (5, 4, 1, 4, 5)
Dice Rolls: 26@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 1726@2: (2, 3, 2, 3, 6, 2, 5, 5, 3, 4, 5, 3, 3, 3, 4, 1, 5, 4, 1, 1, 5, 4, 2, 2, 2, 6)12@3: (1, 6, 1, 5, 4, 2, 1, 5, 4, 1, 1, 3)2@4: (6, 4)

Noll

Dice Rolls: 14@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 1414@2: (1, 1, 3, 3, 1, 6, 4, 3, 1, 1, 6, 2, 3, 6)10@3: (5, 6, 3, 2, 4, 6, 5, 3, 6, 2)5@4: (1, 3, 2, 5, 3)
Dice Rolls: 8@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 148@2: (2, 5, 3, 2, 2, 6, 2, 1)12@3: (3, 4, 1, 3, 3, 2, 5, 3, 1, 5, 6, 2)2@4: (2, 5)

Noll

Dice Rolls: 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 610@3: (1, 2, 6, 3, 6, 4, 4, 6, 5, 6)5@4: (6, 3, 3, 5, 2)
Dice Rolls: 8@3 2@4; Total Hits: 48@3: (4, 2, 4, 1, 5, 2, 4, 5)2@4: (4, 5)

corriganbp

I’ll wait until your done and then roll this a 4th time.

Noll

Dice Rolls: 6@3 5@4; Total Hits: 66@3: (3, 6, 5, 6, 3, 1)5@4: (4, 6, 1, 3, 5)
Dice Rolls: 2@3 2@4; Total Hits: 32@3: (3, 5)2@4: (4, 3)

Noll

Won with 3arm 3tac 2bmb

18+33+24 = 63 IPCs left, 37 less than expected.

average outcome? No way, either you get lucky or you are cursed by unluck

Noll

Rolling 4times this:

56@2 10@3 5@4 = 31hits
52@2 12@3 2@4 = 19hits

Dice Rolls: 56@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 3756@2: (1, 6, 3, 6, 5, 3, 2, 2, 3, 1, 2, 1, 1, 6, 4, 1, 6, 4, 1, 1, 5, 3, 5, 2, 5, 5, 6, 6, 4, 1, 4, 4, 1, 1, 4, 5, 3, 6, 1, 6, 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 5, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 5, 6, 2, 3)10@3: (5, 1, 3, 3, 1, 1, 6, 2, 2, 4)5@4: (6, 4, 3, 6, 4)
Dice Rolls: 52@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 2352@2: (3, 2, 5, 4, 3, 3, 5, 5, 5, 1, 6, 5, 5, 6, 6, 2, 4, 1, 4, 6, 1, 4, 6, 3, 5, 3, 2, 3, 6, 2, 1, 2, 4, 5, 5, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 3, 4, 4, 2, 3, 4, 3, 6, 4, 1, 6, 5)12@3: (5, 6, 1, 4, 2, 3, 1, 2, 4, 2, 3, 2)2@4: (1, 1)

Dice Rolls: 56@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 3056@2: (2, 2, 4, 6, 2, 1, 3, 6, 2, 6, 3, 5, 6, 1, 6, 5, 5, 5, 4, 6, 2, 6, 2, 3, 1, 6, 4, 4, 1, 4, 5, 2, 5, 2, 2, 1, 3, 4, 6, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 1, 1, 1, 5, 1, 2, 5, 2, 5, 5)10@3: (1, 2, 3, 2, 5, 1, 4, 4, 3, 5)5@4: (4, 5, 3, 3, 3)
Dice Rolls: 52@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 2452@2: (6, 6, 6, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 2, 1, 3, 4, 5, 5, 2, 4, 5, 3, 1, 1, 2, 1, 4, 5, 3, 3, 3, 2, 5, 6, 4, 4, 5, 3, 6, 6, 5, 2, 2, 6, 3, 5, 4, 2, 3, 5, 6, 2, 2, 6, 2, 4)12@3: (6, 6, 3, 3, 2, 5, 5, 1, 4, 2, 5, 2)2@4: (5, 4)

Dice Rolls: 56@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2656@2: (2, 4, 6, 4, 3, 2, 2, 1, 4, 4, 6, 3, 6, 1, 2, 2, 5, 2, 1, 1, 5, 3, 6, 3, 3, 3, 5, 1, 5, 4, 5, 6, 1, 5, 3, 4, 6, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 6, 2, 4, 1, 3, 2, 3, 4, 3, 1, 6, 2, 3, 3)10@3: (4, 1, 4, 3, 4, 3, 3, 4, 1, 6)5@4: (1, 1, 4, 5, 4)
Dice Rolls: 52@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 2152@2: (6, 1, 3, 2, 5, 4, 5, 6, 6, 2, 3, 1, 2, 4, 3, 5, 2, 3, 3, 4, 1, 5, 1, 5, 5, 6, 5, 5, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 6, 5, 2, 3, 3, 2, 3, 5, 4, 3, 6, 2, 5, 5, 3, 2, 1, 1, 3)12@3: (5, 1, 1, 4, 6, 6, 3, 3, 3, 5, 6, 6)2@4: (4, 4)

Dice Rolls: 56@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2756@2: (2, 1, 6, 3, 3, 4, 1, 6, 4, 2, 5, 3, 5, 6, 3, 6, 2, 2, 1, 3, 5, 6, 2, 1, 3, 4, 6, 2, 4, 4, 5, 5, 4, 5, 2, 1, 3, 2, 6, 1, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 6, 2, 5, 1, 2, 2, 6, 2, 3, 1, 4)10@3: (6, 6, 6, 3, 3, 5, 2, 1, 3, 3)5@4: (1, 6, 5, 6, 6)
Dice Rolls: 52@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 2052@2: (2, 3, 3, 4, 6, 3, 5, 5, 3, 1, 6, 3, 2, 2, 3, 5, 2, 2, 5, 5, 5, 3, 6, 5, 6, 3, 5, 5, 1, 4, 5, 2, 1, 2, 6, 6, 4, 5, 4, 1, 5, 4, 3, 6, 6, 5, 5, 1, 1, 3, 6, 5)12@3: (6, 6, 3, 5, 2, 2, 4, 3, 6, 2, 5, 6)2@4: (4, 4)

Experimental Alpha 4 Game - Wrongway Corrigan vs. Noll

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