Experimental Alpha 4 Game - Wrongway Corrigan vs. Noll

Taken with 29 arts and 9 tanks, pretty close to expected and basically what I needed.

you have to consider the law of large numbers, 45% hits with 2 is exceptionally strange when you are rolling that number of dice.

of course it can happen, but it’s not likely, and there is absolutely no comparison between the outcome of the first vs. the second battle in terms of luck.

The first battle was absolutely flukey.

Expected number of hits with 121 shots at 2 = 121/3 = 40.33.

Variance of the distribution is 121 x (1/3) x (2/3) = 26.89.

St Deviation = sqr (26.89) = 5.19.

You got 48 hits, so that’s 48 - 40.33 = 7.67 or 7.67/5.19 = 1.48 standard deviations above the mean.

109 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
2 aa 74 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 80@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 4680@1: (1, 4, 3, 6, 2, 1, 5, 6, 1, 5, 4, 1, 3, 4, 1, 5, 5, 2, 3, 1, 1, 6, 5, 2, 5, 6, 5, 6, 5, 2, 6, 5, 5, 3, 4, 1, 3, 3, 6, 4, 1, 4, 4, 4, 2, 4, 2, 6, 6, 4, 6, 1, 4, 4, 2, 2, 4, 6, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 4, 4, 1, 1, 6, 1, 4, 1, 4, 2, 4, 5, 5, 6, 5, 5)62@2: (4, 4, 5, 1, 2, 1, 2, 6, 1, 4, 1, 2, 5, 1, 3, 2, 5, 4, 3, 5, 4, 1, 5, 2, 2, 3, 6, 1, 2, 4, 6, 6, 2, 4, 6, 4, 5, 2, 3, 5, 5, 4, 1, 4, 5, 4, 6, 3, 1, 2, 1, 4, 2, 6, 5, 4, 2, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3)10@3: (3, 5, 1, 3, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 3)5@4: (2, 5, 6, 1, 2)
DefendRolls: 121@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 49121@2: (5, 3, 2, 1, 4, 6, 3, 4, 5, 6, 5, 3, 3, 3, 6, 6, 6, 5, 6, 2, 1, 5, 6, 6, 2, 3, 2, 6, 3, 2, 1, 1, 4, 3, 2, 2, 2, 4, 5, 6, 3, 4, 3, 6, 1, 3, 5, 6, 2, 5, 2, 2, 3, 2, 1, 5, 4, 2, 5, 6, 3, 6, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 1, 4, 3, 5, 1, 2, 5, 3, 1, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 2, 2, 1, 6, 5, 2, 4, 5, 5, 3, 6, 6, 4, 1, 2, 2, 1, 3, 5, 3, 1, 5, 4, 6, 2, 5, 5, 6, 3, 5, 6, 4, 6, 6, 4, 5, 2, 1)12@3: (3, 6, 4, 2, 5, 2, 3, 1, 3, 3, 3, 1)2@4: (6, 4)

60 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
30 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 31@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2531@1: (1, 1, 2, 6, 4, 3, 4, 4, 6, 1, 4, 1, 5, 4, 3, 3, 5, 6, 4, 6, 3, 3, 3, 2, 4, 2, 6, 5, 3, 5, 1)62@2: (4, 6, 3, 3, 3, 5, 6, 6, 5, 6, 4, 6, 5, 2, 2, 2, 6, 2, 5, 6, 4, 1, 2, 6, 4, 4, 5, 2, 6, 4, 3, 3, 3, 5, 5, 5, 4, 5, 5, 2, 5, 3, 2, 3, 4, 3, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 4, 5, 2, 1, 2, 6, 3, 2, 4, 6)10@3: (4, 6, 5, 3, 5, 2, 2, 4, 4, 6)5@4: (6, 5, 3, 3, 2)
DefendRolls: 77@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 3777@2: (1, 6, 6, 4, 3, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 4, 3, 6, 3, 1, 6, 1, 4, 4, 3, 5, 1, 6, 5, 1, 5, 2, 3, 1, 2, 3, 6, 5, 6, 1, 5, 6, 3, 6, 2, 4, 3, 5, 4, 6, 6, 3, 1, 4, 6, 3, 3, 1, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 2, 4, 1, 1, 3, 6, 1, 2, 6, 3, 2, 2, 1, 5, 1, 4)12@3: (4, 1, 6, 4, 4, 6, 1, 1, 6, 3, 2, 6)2@4: (5, 4)

23 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
5 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 56@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 3156@2: (1, 1, 4, 2, 6, 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 3, 4, 1, 5, 2, 2, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4, 6, 2, 6, 1, 1, 4, 2, 1, 4, 5, 3, 4, 5, 5, 1, 3, 2, 5, 1, 1, 1, 4, 2, 6, 6, 4, 4, 5, 2, 3, 3, 2)10@3: (5, 2, 2, 5, 5, 4, 6, 3, 2, 3)5@4: (1, 1, 1, 1, 3)
DefendRolls: 52@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 1952@2: (2, 6, 4, 3, 6, 1, 5, 6, 1, 2, 4, 6, 3, 1, 2, 5, 5, 3, 6, 4, 2, 4, 3, 5, 5, 6, 5, 5, 6, 5, 2, 1, 4, 5, 4, 4, 6, 2, 4, 1, 3, 1, 6, 6, 2, 1, 4, 6, 4, 4, 3, 5)12@3: (1, 6, 3, 6, 5, 1, 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 4)2@4: (4, 3)

4 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
21 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 37@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2637@2: (2, 5, 2, 4, 6, 5, 2, 5, 6, 6, 3, 3, 4, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 1, 2, 2, 2, 1, 3, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 6, 3, 5, 6, 1)10@3: (1, 4, 1, 6, 6, 4, 3, 6, 5, 5)5@4: (3, 3, 4, 4, 4)
DefendRolls: 21@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 1821@2: (5, 5, 5, 2, 1, 1, 3, 2, 1, 3, 4, 1, 5, 2, 6, 6, 2, 3, 6, 2, 3)12@3: (3, 5, 3, 2, 3, 5, 4, 1, 2, 2, 6, 1)2@4: (6, 2)

19 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
6 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 19@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 1319@2: (5, 3, 6, 5, 4, 2, 4, 3, 4, 6, 3, 6, 6, 5, 2, 1, 5, 5, 2)10@3: (2, 1, 2, 5, 6, 5, 2, 1, 2, 5)5@4: (2, 5, 3, 5, 4)
DefendRolls: 7@3 2@4; Total Hits: 57@3: (2, 2, 5, 5, 5, 3, 5)2@4: (1, 2)

taken with 14 arts and 9 tanks, again a reasonable outcome

you hit with 9 out of 12 of your shots at 3 in the first round though, and the overall outcome is pretty close to what was predicted.