@The_Good_Captain Game History
Round: 1 Combat Move - Germans 1 mech and 2 tanks moved from El Agheila to Zella 1 mech, 1 scoutcar and 2 tanks moved from Zella to Mersa Brega 1 G-antitank and 1 artillery moved from El Agheila to Mersa Brega 1 G-bomber and 1 G-fighter moved from Tripoli to Mersa Brega Combat - Germans Non Combat Move - Germans Trigger AddCoastRoadTripoli: Germans has 1 coast_road placed in Tripoli Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from El Agheila: 1 5-supply EDIT: Adding units owned by Italians to El Agheila: 3 1-supplys EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Mersa Brega: 1 5-supply EDIT: Adding units owned by Uncontrolled to Mersa Brega: 3 1-supplys EDIT: Removing units owned by Italians from El Agheila: 2 1-supplys EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Mersa Brega: 1 scoutcar EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Mersa Brega: 1 artillery and 1 mech EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Mersa Brega: 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 matilda EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Mersa Brega: 1 UK-truck EDIT: Adding units owned by Germans to Mersa Brega: 1 UK-truck EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Trigger RemoveCoastRoadTripoli: has removed 1 coast_road owned by Germans in Tripoli 1 G-bomber and 1 G-fighter moved from Mersa Brega to El Agheila 1 mech moved from Tripoli to Mersa Brega Place Units - Germans 1 1-supply and 2 G-fighters placed in Tripoli Convoy G Assign Convoy Escorts - Germans Trigger AllowGermanFighterToStayAtSea: Setting carrierCost to 0 for unitAttachment attached to G-fighter Trigger AllowGermanBomberToStayAtSea: Setting carrierCost to 0 for unitAttachment attached to G-bomber Trigger ReduceMovementGermanAircraft: Setting movement to 2 for unitAttachment attached to G-fighter Trigger ReduceMovementGermanAircraft: Setting movement to 2 for unitAttachment attached to G-bomber Trigger 1British5-supplyCairo: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2British1-supplyMalta: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British1-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2British5-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2British1-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2German1-supplyTripoli: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2British1-supplyBenghazi: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British5-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 3British1-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 3British1-supplyBenghazi: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British1-supplyBenghazi: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1German1-supplyTripoli Convoy G: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 3German1-supplyTripoli: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1Italian1-supplyEl Agheila: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1German1-supplyTripoli: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British1-supplyMalta: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 3British5-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger IncreaseAircraftMovementTo4: Setting movement to 4 for unitAttachment attached to G-fighter Trigger IncreaseAircraftMovementTo4: Setting movement to 4 for unitAttachment attached to G-bomber 1 G-bomber moved from Sicily to Sea Zone 13 2 G-fighters moved from Tripoli Convoy G to Sea Zone 13 End Turn - Germans Germans collect 0 PUs; end with 4 PUs Objective Germans Base Income: Germans met a national objective for an additional 25 PUs; end with 29 PUsExperimental Alpha 4 Game - Wrongway Corrigan vs. Noll
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21 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 36 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac
Attack
Rolls: 54@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2554@2: (3, 3, 3, 1, 3, 3, 3, 1, 6, 5, 1, 4, 2, 3, 4, 6, 5, 3, 6, 5, 2, 4, 3, 1, 5, 2, 2, 6, 5, 4, 6, 2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 4, 4, 5, 4, 1, 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, 2, 5, 3, 3, 2, 5)10@3: (4, 1, 1, 6, 1, 5, 3, 1, 1, 4)5@4: (2, 3, 1, 1, 2)
Defend
Rolls: 36@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 1636@2: (4, 4, 6, 1, 5, 6, 1, 4, 5, 5, 5, 3, 1, 2, 5, 6, 5, 5, 6, 5, 5, 4, 2, 6, 4, 5, 1, 1, 5, 1, 3, 3, 5, 3, 4, 4)12@3: (2, 4, 1, 6, 2, 6, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 6)2@4: (5, 6) -
5 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 11 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac
Attack
Rolls: 38@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2038@2: (1, 2, 6, 6, 6, 1, 4, 5, 1, 1, 2, 6, 2, 3, 5, 5, 3, 2, 6, 5, 1, 2, 1, 5, 1, 2, 6, 6, 6, 5, 3, 6, 1, 3, 6, 6, 4, 3)10@3: (5, 4, 4, 6, 4, 6, 3, 2, 4, 6)5@4: (4, 4, 4, 4, 5)
Defend
Rolls: 11@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 811@2: (5, 2, 6, 6, 1, 5, 6, 6, 2, 5, 6)12@3: (4, 5, 6, 2, 1, 4, 5, 5, 3, 3, 4, 6)2@4: (5, 2) -
30 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 2 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac
Attack
Rolls: 30@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2430@2: (1, 5, 5, 1, 4, 2, 5, 4, 4, 4, 6, 2, 5, 6, 1, 2, 1, 3, 4, 1, 1, 5, 4, 2, 2, 3, 6, 3, 1, 1)10@3: (3, 1, 5, 1, 2, 3, 3, 6, 1, 1)5@4: (3, 6, 2, 2, 6)
Defend
Rolls: 2@3 2@4; Total Hits: 12@3: (3, 4)2@4: (6, 5) -
I’m sorry Corrigan but this time I’m going to tell you something.
45% hit ratio and 40% hit ratio on a 33% expected result is not luck.
33% is the average expected result.
This means the result can vary from 20% to 50% and this still can’t be considered luck.
A result of a 66%+ hit ratio on an expected hit of 33% could be considered luck.
That’s why in Axis and Allies you need overwhelming forces to conduct a battle that big. And you didn’t had overwhelming forces. In fact the fight guaranteed a win for you with few units surviving (and for few I mean that 20 to 30 units in a battle of this scale are indeed few).
In round#1 you hitted 15times with @1 out of 80, that’s 3 more, so that’s a 40/45% too.
I know if I where Germany I wouldn’t have attacked that stack. (Although it was juicy, but that’s only because I didn’t notice the 3tac.bombers).
Still, remember the battle calculators are not gold. A battle with 300 units involved shouldn’t change from 67% to 90% with 3 more units.
And I’m sad you made that attack, 'cause the game was interesting, and I hate games where you decide everything in 1 battle (like the multi games where Jim tried Russia rush or Anzac rush)
5inf hitted 3 times my bombers.
5inf are expected to hit 1,66 times, they hitted double their expected chance. That’s luck
Then the round after 2 inf hitted 1 time the surviving bomber.
2 inf are expected to hit 0,66, still they hit 1 (+33%), that’s, again, luck, but nobody complained.
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Taken with 29 arts and 9 tanks, pretty close to expected and basically what I needed.
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Taken with 29 arts and 9 tanks, pretty close to expected and basically what I needed.
and you where lucky, hitted more than average, and still typed that the fight was on my side.
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you have to consider the law of large numbers, 45% hits with 2 is exceptionally strange when you are rolling that number of dice.
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It can still happen, and it can happen on either side. Actually on a large battle like that a +7% is not that crazy.
Anyway, did you like this module?
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of course it can happen, but it’s not likely, and there is absolutely no comparison between the outcome of the first vs. the second battle in terms of luck.
The first battle was absolutely flukey.
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In battles like that everything is decided round#1, and I’m sure you know it.
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Expected number of hits with 121 shots at 2 = 121/3 = 40.33.
Variance of the distribution is 121 x (1/3) x (2/3) = 26.89.
St Deviation = sqr (26.89) = 5.19.
You got 48 hits, so that’s 48 - 40.33 = 7.67 or 7.67/5.19 = 1.48 standard deviations above the mean.
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109 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
2 aa 74 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tacAttack
Rolls: 80@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 4680@1: (1, 4, 3, 6, 2, 1, 5, 6, 1, 5, 4, 1, 3, 4, 1, 5, 5, 2, 3, 1, 1, 6, 5, 2, 5, 6, 5, 6, 5, 2, 6, 5, 5, 3, 4, 1, 3, 3, 6, 4, 1, 4, 4, 4, 2, 4, 2, 6, 6, 4, 6, 1, 4, 4, 2, 2, 4, 6, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 4, 4, 1, 1, 6, 1, 4, 1, 4, 2, 4, 5, 5, 6, 5, 5)62@2: (4, 4, 5, 1, 2, 1, 2, 6, 1, 4, 1, 2, 5, 1, 3, 2, 5, 4, 3, 5, 4, 1, 5, 2, 2, 3, 6, 1, 2, 4, 6, 6, 2, 4, 6, 4, 5, 2, 3, 5, 5, 4, 1, 4, 5, 4, 6, 3, 1, 2, 1, 4, 2, 6, 5, 4, 2, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3)10@3: (3, 5, 1, 3, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 3)5@4: (2, 5, 6, 1, 2)
Defend
Rolls: 121@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 49121@2: (5, 3, 2, 1, 4, 6, 3, 4, 5, 6, 5, 3, 3, 3, 6, 6, 6, 5, 6, 2, 1, 5, 6, 6, 2, 3, 2, 6, 3, 2, 1, 1, 4, 3, 2, 2, 2, 4, 5, 6, 3, 4, 3, 6, 1, 3, 5, 6, 2, 5, 2, 2, 3, 2, 1, 5, 4, 2, 5, 6, 3, 6, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 1, 4, 3, 5, 1, 2, 5, 3, 1, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 2, 2, 1, 6, 5, 2, 4, 5, 5, 3, 6, 6, 4, 1, 2, 2, 1, 3, 5, 3, 1, 5, 4, 6, 2, 5, 5, 6, 3, 5, 6, 4, 6, 6, 4, 5, 2, 1)12@3: (3, 6, 4, 2, 5, 2, 3, 1, 3, 3, 3, 1)2@4: (6, 4) -
60 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
30 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tacAttack
Rolls: 31@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2531@1: (1, 1, 2, 6, 4, 3, 4, 4, 6, 1, 4, 1, 5, 4, 3, 3, 5, 6, 4, 6, 3, 3, 3, 2, 4, 2, 6, 5, 3, 5, 1)62@2: (4, 6, 3, 3, 3, 5, 6, 6, 5, 6, 4, 6, 5, 2, 2, 2, 6, 2, 5, 6, 4, 1, 2, 6, 4, 4, 5, 2, 6, 4, 3, 3, 3, 5, 5, 5, 4, 5, 5, 2, 5, 3, 2, 3, 4, 3, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 4, 5, 2, 1, 2, 6, 3, 2, 4, 6)10@3: (4, 6, 5, 3, 5, 2, 2, 4, 4, 6)5@4: (6, 5, 3, 3, 2)
Defend
Rolls: 77@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 3777@2: (1, 6, 6, 4, 3, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 4, 3, 6, 3, 1, 6, 1, 4, 4, 3, 5, 1, 6, 5, 1, 5, 2, 3, 1, 2, 3, 6, 5, 6, 1, 5, 6, 3, 6, 2, 4, 3, 5, 4, 6, 6, 3, 1, 4, 6, 3, 3, 1, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 2, 4, 1, 1, 3, 6, 1, 2, 6, 3, 2, 2, 1, 5, 1, 4)12@3: (4, 1, 6, 4, 4, 6, 1, 1, 6, 3, 2, 6)2@4: (5, 4) -
Please, stop this, you were unlucky, you can’t possibly lose any game if not by bad luck, that’s the point?
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23 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
5 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tacAttack
Rolls: 56@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 3156@2: (1, 1, 4, 2, 6, 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 3, 4, 1, 5, 2, 2, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4, 6, 2, 6, 1, 1, 4, 2, 1, 4, 5, 3, 4, 5, 5, 1, 3, 2, 5, 1, 1, 1, 4, 2, 6, 6, 4, 4, 5, 2, 3, 3, 2)10@3: (5, 2, 2, 5, 5, 4, 6, 3, 2, 3)5@4: (1, 1, 1, 1, 3)
Defend
Rolls: 52@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 1952@2: (2, 6, 4, 3, 6, 1, 5, 6, 1, 2, 4, 6, 3, 1, 2, 5, 5, 3, 6, 4, 2, 4, 3, 5, 5, 6, 5, 5, 6, 5, 2, 1, 4, 5, 4, 4, 6, 2, 4, 1, 3, 1, 6, 6, 2, 1, 4, 6, 4, 4, 3, 5)12@3: (1, 6, 3, 6, 5, 1, 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 4)2@4: (4, 3) -
4 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
21 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tacAttack
Rolls: 37@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2637@2: (2, 5, 2, 4, 6, 5, 2, 5, 6, 6, 3, 3, 4, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 1, 2, 2, 2, 1, 3, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 6, 3, 5, 6, 1)10@3: (1, 4, 1, 6, 6, 4, 3, 6, 5, 5)5@4: (3, 3, 4, 4, 4)
Defend
Rolls: 21@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 1821@2: (5, 5, 5, 2, 1, 1, 3, 2, 1, 3, 4, 1, 5, 2, 6, 6, 2, 3, 6, 2, 3)12@3: (3, 5, 3, 2, 3, 5, 4, 1, 2, 2, 6, 1)2@4: (6, 2) -
19 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs.
6 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tacAttack
Rolls: 19@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 1319@2: (5, 3, 6, 5, 4, 2, 4, 3, 4, 6, 3, 6, 6, 5, 2, 1, 5, 5, 2)10@3: (2, 1, 2, 5, 6, 5, 2, 1, 2, 5)5@4: (2, 5, 3, 5, 4)
Defend
Rolls: 7@3 2@4; Total Hits: 57@3: (2, 2, 5, 5, 5, 3, 5)2@4: (1, 2) -
56@2 10@3 5@4 = 31hits
52@2 12@3 2@4 = 19hitshow’s the luck in this battle? Favor anyone?
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taken with 14 arts and 9 tanks, again a reasonable outcome
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reasonable outcome
56@2 10@3 5@4 = 31hits
52@2 12@3 2@4 = 19hits
Rolls: 56@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2656@2: (2, 6, 4, 5, 4, 5, 3, 5, 2, 6, 1, 4, 5, 5, 3, 4, 3, 4, 5, 1, 4, 4, 6, 4, 5, 1, 6, 2, 2, 3, 1, 4, 2, 4, 3, 6, 3, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 3, 3, 4, 5, 1, 1, 3, 5, 1, 6, 2, 1, 4, 1)10@3: (2, 4, 3, 4, 6, 3, 1, 2, 1, 3)5@4: (2, 3, 2, 6, 2)
Rolls: 52@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 2552@2: (6, 5, 4, 3, 3, 2, 3, 3, 4, 2, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2, 4, 6, 5, 6, 3, 5, 2, 4, 6, 2, 1, 1, 5, 2, 1, 6, 2, 6, 3, 4, 2, 5, 1, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 5, 5, 2, 2, 5, 6, 1, 2, 4)12@3: (3, 5, 4, 5, 6, 4, 3, 1, 5, 3, 3, 4)2@4: (6, 1)





