Game History
Round: 3 Combat Move - Germans 2 G-bombers and 4 G-fighters moved from Sicily to Sea Zone 8 1 tank moved from Benghazi to Mersa Brega 2 mechs moved from Mersa Brega to Benghazi Combat - Germans Battle in Sea Zone 8 Germans attack with 2 G-bombers and 4 G-fighters British defend with 1 UK-battleship, 3 UK-destroyers and 1 UK-submarine 1 UK-submarine owned by the British submerged Germans roll dice for 2 G-bombers and 4 G-fighters in Sea Zone 8, round 2 : 4,1,1,8,10,7 British roll dice for 1 UK-battleship and 3 UK-destroyers in Sea Zone 8, round 2 : 3,5,6,2 2 G-fighters owned by the Germans lost in Sea Zone 8 1 UK-battleship owned by the British and 2 UK-destroyers owned by the British lost in Sea Zone 8 Germans roll dice for 2 G-bombers and 2 G-fighters in Sea Zone 8, round 3 : 10,7,9,2 British roll dice for 1 UK-destroyer in Sea Zone 8, round 3 : 5 1 UK-destroyer owned by the British lost in Sea Zone 8 Germans win with 2 G-bombers and 2 G-fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 17 Casualties for Germans: 2 G-fighters Casualties for British: 1 UK-battleship and 3 UK-destroyers Non Combat Move - Germans Trigger AddCoastRoadBenghazi: Germans has 1 coast_road placed in Benghazi Trigger AddCoastRoadMersa Brega: Germans has 1 coast_road placed in Mersa Brega Trigger RemoveCoastRoadMersa Brega: has removed 1 coast_road owned by Germans in Mersa Brega Trigger RemoveCoastRoadBenghazi: has removed 1 coast_road owned by Germans in Benghazi 2 G-bombers and 2 G-fighters moved from Sea Zone 8 to Italy Place Units - Germans 1 1-supply, 1 G-bomber, 1 artillery and 1 tank placed in Benghazi Convoy G Assign Convoy Escorts - Germans Trigger AllowGermanFighterToStayAtSea: Setting carrierCost to 0 for unitAttachment attached to G-fighter Trigger AllowGermanBomberToStayAtSea: Setting carrierCost to 0 for unitAttachment attached to G-bomber Trigger ReduceMovementGermanAircraft: Setting movement to 2 for unitAttachment attached to G-fighter Trigger ReduceMovementGermanAircraft: Setting movement to 2 for unitAttachment attached to G-bomber Trigger RemoveSupplySaharaDesert: has removed 10 1-supplys and 7 5-supplys owned by Uncontrolled in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British5-supplyCairo: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British1-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1Italian5-supplyBenghazi Convoy I: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 4British1-supplyCairo: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2British5-supplyCairo: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British5-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1German1-supplyBenghazi Convoy G: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British1-supplyCairo: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1German1-supplyEl Agheila: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2German5-supplyBenghazi: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2German1-supplyBenghazi: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 3British5-supplyCairo: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1German1-supplyBenghazi: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1German1-supplyTripoli: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2British1-supplyCairo: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 3British1-supplyCairo: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 3German1-supplyBenghazi: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1German5-supplyBenghazi: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger IncreaseAircraftMovementTo4: Setting movement to 4 for unitAttachment attached to G-fighter Trigger IncreaseAircraftMovementTo4: Setting movement to 4 for unitAttachment attached to G-bomber 2 G-bombers and 2 G-fighters moved from Italy to Sea Zone 15 End Turn - Germans Germans collect 0 PUs; end with 0 PUs Objective Germans Base Income: Germans met a national objective for an additional 25 PUs; end with 25 PUsExperimental Alpha 4 Game - Wrongway Corrigan vs. Noll
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Germany – Winter 1943-44
With 49 ipcs,
12 mechs = 48
Save 1 ipcGermans assassinate hitler, renounce fascism, this is a war to end communism – all Jews and concentration camps are emptied, please God bless our efforts and allow us to liberate Ukraine!
Attack
N Ukraine (2 aa 74 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac) with
E poland,
3 tacs fr w Germany
2 bmbs fr s Italy
2 ftrs fr 115Aa guns
Rolls: 6@1; Total Hits: 16@1: (6, 3, 5, 5, 1, 3) -
109 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 2 aa 74 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac
Attack
Rolls: 80@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 4480@1: (4, 2, 1, 3, 1, 6, 6, 4, 5, 2, 4, 6, 6, 1, 2, 1, 3, 6, 1, 4, 6, 5, 2, 2, 6, 6, 2, 3, 5, 1, 4, 3, 2, 5, 5, 3, 5, 5, 6, 3, 1, 3, 3, 6, 4, 4, 6, 6, 4, 6, 3, 3, 5, 5, 5, 4, 4, 1, 1, 2, 1, 5, 4, 2, 3, 3, 4, 1, 1, 4, 4, 2, 6, 6, 1, 4, 4, 1, 3, 1)62@2: (1, 6, 4, 5, 4, 2, 3, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 1, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 4, 4, 6, 2, 5, 6, 2, 6, 3, 5, 6, 5, 5, 6, 5, 3, 5, 2, 4, 1, 3, 6, 4, 5, 2, 4, 5, 6, 2, 1, 2, 6, 5, 2, 1, 3, 1, 2, 2, 3, 6, 2, 2, 5)10@3: (2, 6, 1, 6, 2, 5, 6, 4, 5, 4)5@4: (3, 1, 1, 1, 1)
DefendRolls: 121@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 61121@2: (2, 2, 3, 1, 6, 4, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 1, 3, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 1, 3, 2, 1, 6, 6, 4, 3, 1, 5, 3, 1, 1, 5, 3, 2, 5, 1, 4, 2, 4, 1, 1, 5, 4, 1, 6, 5, 2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 3, 3, 3, 3, 1, 6, 3, 6, 3, 4, 6, 1, 6, 2, 6, 6, 5, 1, 4, 5, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 3, 2, 2, 6, 5, 5, 3, 2, 2, 3, 2, 5, 2, 4, 2, 2, 5, 2, 3, 4, 2, 1, 5, 5, 6, 5, 1, 1, 1, 3, 1, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 2, 5, 5, 3, 2, 1, 1)12@3: (4, 4, 2, 5, 2, 4, 2, 5, 5, 3, 3, 4)2@4: (2, 2) -
I seriously can’t imagine the opening round of that battle going any better for you.
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45% of your shots at 2 hit.
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sometimes 90% odds are just not enough, now what to do???
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Attack
N Ukraine (2 aa 74 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac) with
E poland,
3 tacs fr w Germany
2 bmbs fr s Italy
2 ftrs fr 11548 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 32 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac
Attack
Rolls: 19@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2919@1: (4, 3, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 6, 4, 3, 3, 6, 4, 5, 6, 2, 5, 6, 3)62@2: (5, 1, 4, 6, 4, 1, 2, 4, 6, 5, 6, 6, 2, 3, 1, 4, 4, 4, 5, 4, 2, 1, 1, 2, 5, 5, 1, 6, 3, 1, 3, 2, 2, 6, 2, 5, 6, 3, 3, 5, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 1, 3, 3, 6, 1, 4, 1, 1, 5, 5, 6, 6, 5, 3, 6, 1)10@3: (5, 1, 1, 6, 6, 1, 3, 3, 6, 4)5@4: (5, 4, 1, 4, 2)
DefendRolls: 79@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 3679@2: (2, 6, 5, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 6, 1, 1, 5, 3, 1, 5, 1, 2, 6, 6, 1, 6, 3, 4, 5, 1, 2, 2, 1, 5, 4, 3, 5, 2, 3, 5, 4, 4, 6, 5, 4, 6, 5, 2, 3, 6, 1, 3, 1, 6, 3, 2, 5, 5, 5, 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 5, 3, 2, 3, 5, 5, 2, 3, 3, 1, 1, 6, 1, 6, 1, 3, 5, 1, 6)12@3: (5, 1, 2, 1, 6, 1, 5, 3, 6, 5, 2, 6)2@4: (3, 5) -
didn’t get any better there
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40% of your shots at 2 hit that time.
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and so a battle where I had 90% odds and should have come out 100 ipcs ahead,
by the third round has me down to 30% odds and 72 ipcs more in damage than expected.I’m pretty sure that’s a 1 in 100 type of victory for you.
At this point, if we play it out it’s just to see how long it takes you to capture the capitals.
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CRD in 105
Rolls: 1@3; Total Hits: 01@3: (4) -
I’d say it’s over.
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109 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 2 aa 74 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac
Attack
Rolls: 80@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 5180@1: (6, 1, 2, 4, 2, 4, 1, 3, 3, 3, 4, 2, 6, 1, 2, 1, 3, 5, 1, 4, 3, 4, 4, 6, 4, 1, 5, 3, 4, 4, 1, 3, 5, 3, 6, 1, 6, 1, 3, 3, 4, 1, 5, 3, 2, 6, 3, 4, 4, 4, 2, 1, 1, 5, 6, 5, 6, 4, 1, 4, 2, 1, 6, 1, 4, 6, 2, 3, 1, 5, 5, 4, 5, 4, 1, 1, 3, 4, 4, 1)62@2: (2, 6, 2, 3, 4, 1, 1, 4, 5, 2, 1, 6, 2, 1, 1, 6, 6, 2, 2, 1, 6, 1, 5, 5, 4, 6, 6, 1, 3, 3, 2, 4, 2, 3, 6, 6, 3, 1, 4, 2, 2, 4, 1, 4, 4, 2, 3, 4, 3, 4, 4, 3, 5, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1, 3, 4, 4, 4)10@3: (2, 6, 6, 2, 6, 3, 2, 3, 4, 4)5@4: (6, 5, 1, 4, 6)
DefendRolls: 121@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 55121@2: (4, 1, 3, 1, 5, 6, 6, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 6, 6, 2, 2, 6, 2, 4, 6, 4, 6, 2, 2, 3, 2, 1, 4, 5, 1, 1, 6, 4, 2, 5, 4, 1, 6, 5, 2, 2, 1, 6, 2, 1, 1, 4, 1, 2, 1, 6, 6, 6, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 5, 2, 2, 5, 2, 6, 6, 6, 3, 1, 6, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 2, 6, 4, 3, 6, 3, 3, 5, 4, 4, 1, 1, 5, 6, 2, 1, 5, 4, 6, 5, 3, 3, 5, 3, 4, 1, 3, 6, 2, 5, 2, 3, 5, 6, 6, 4, 3, 3, 3, 1, 6, 3, 1, 5)12@3: (2, 3, 5, 6, 6, 5, 4, 3, 1, 3, 5, 4)2@4: (3, 2) -
still not good but not crazily bad.
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54 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 25 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac
Attack
Rolls: 25@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 3625@1: (6, 1, 4, 6, 6, 5, 3, 2, 3, 4, 3, 2, 4, 2, 1, 6, 5, 5, 3, 1, 1, 4, 5, 6, 4)62@2: (1, 2, 5, 3, 4, 3, 2, 4, 1, 2, 4, 5, 5, 6, 2, 3, 2, 3, 6, 4, 4, 6, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 6, 1, 2, 4, 2, 4, 2, 4, 2, 5, 6, 6, 5, 1, 3, 4, 5, 2, 5, 1, 4, 2, 1, 1, 5, 6, 3, 1, 2, 5, 3, 2, 5, 5, 5)10@3: (6, 2, 1, 4, 4, 5, 3, 3, 4, 4)5@4: (5, 1, 2, 1, 5)
DefendRolls: 72@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 3372@2: (3, 4, 1, 4, 5, 5, 4, 1, 6, 5, 5, 2, 1, 4, 1, 5, 4, 3, 5, 1, 6, 4, 3, 2, 1, 6, 1, 2, 2, 2, 6, 5, 6, 6, 2, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4, 3, 6, 4, 1, 1, 2, 4, 3, 1, 4, 2, 4, 1, 4, 5, 1, 5, 6, 2, 6, 6, 1, 5, 6, 2, 3, 5, 6, 1, 3, 4)12@3: (4, 3, 1, 4, 3, 2, 1, 5, 3, 5, 1, 1)2@4: (6, 4) -
I’d still say this is going your way, but it’s at least reasonable.
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21 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 36 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac
Attack
Rolls: 54@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2554@2: (3, 3, 3, 1, 3, 3, 3, 1, 6, 5, 1, 4, 2, 3, 4, 6, 5, 3, 6, 5, 2, 4, 3, 1, 5, 2, 2, 6, 5, 4, 6, 2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 4, 4, 5, 4, 1, 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, 2, 5, 3, 3, 2, 5)10@3: (4, 1, 1, 6, 1, 5, 3, 1, 1, 4)5@4: (2, 3, 1, 1, 2)
DefendRolls: 36@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 1636@2: (4, 4, 6, 1, 5, 6, 1, 4, 5, 5, 5, 3, 1, 2, 5, 6, 5, 5, 6, 5, 5, 4, 2, 6, 4, 5, 1, 1, 5, 1, 3, 3, 5, 3, 4, 4)12@3: (2, 4, 1, 6, 2, 6, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 6)2@4: (5, 6) -
5 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 11 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac
Attack
Rolls: 38@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2038@2: (1, 2, 6, 6, 6, 1, 4, 5, 1, 1, 2, 6, 2, 3, 5, 5, 3, 2, 6, 5, 1, 2, 1, 5, 1, 2, 6, 6, 6, 5, 3, 6, 1, 3, 6, 6, 4, 3)10@3: (5, 4, 4, 6, 4, 6, 3, 2, 4, 6)5@4: (4, 4, 4, 4, 5)
DefendRolls: 11@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 811@2: (5, 2, 6, 6, 1, 5, 6, 6, 2, 5, 6)12@3: (4, 5, 6, 2, 1, 4, 5, 5, 3, 3, 4, 6)2@4: (5, 2) -
30 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 2 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac
Attack
Rolls: 30@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2430@2: (1, 5, 5, 1, 4, 2, 5, 4, 4, 4, 6, 2, 5, 6, 1, 2, 1, 3, 4, 1, 1, 5, 4, 2, 2, 3, 6, 3, 1, 1)10@3: (3, 1, 5, 1, 2, 3, 3, 6, 1, 1)5@4: (3, 6, 2, 2, 6)
DefendRolls: 2@3 2@4; Total Hits: 12@3: (3, 4)2@4: (6, 5) -
I’m sorry Corrigan but this time I’m going to tell you something.
45% hit ratio and 40% hit ratio on a 33% expected result is not luck.
33% is the average expected result.
This means the result can vary from 20% to 50% and this still can’t be considered luck.
A result of a 66%+ hit ratio on an expected hit of 33% could be considered luck.
That’s why in Axis and Allies you need overwhelming forces to conduct a battle that big. And you didn’t had overwhelming forces. In fact the fight guaranteed a win for you with few units surviving (and for few I mean that 20 to 30 units in a battle of this scale are indeed few).
In round#1 you hitted 15times with @1 out of 80, that’s 3 more, so that’s a 40/45% too.
I know if I where Germany I wouldn’t have attacked that stack. (Although it was juicy, but that’s only because I didn’t notice the 3tac.bombers).
Still, remember the battle calculators are not gold. A battle with 300 units involved shouldn’t change from 67% to 90% with 3 more units.
And I’m sad you made that attack, 'cause the game was interesting, and I hate games where you decide everything in 1 battle (like the multi games where Jim tried Russia rush or Anzac rush)
5inf hitted 3 times my bombers.
5inf are expected to hit 1,66 times, they hitted double their expected chance. That’s luck
Then the round after 2 inf hitted 1 time the surviving bomber.
2 inf are expected to hit 0,66, still they hit 1 (+33%), that’s, again, luck, but nobody complained.
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Taken with 29 arts and 9 tanks, pretty close to expected and basically what I needed.
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