@The_Good_Captain Game History
Round: 1 Combat Move - Germans 1 mech and 2 tanks moved from El Agheila to Zella 1 mech, 1 scoutcar and 2 tanks moved from Zella to Mersa Brega 1 G-antitank and 1 artillery moved from El Agheila to Mersa Brega 1 G-bomber and 1 G-fighter moved from Tripoli to Mersa Brega Combat - Germans Non Combat Move - Germans Trigger AddCoastRoadTripoli: Germans has 1 coast_road placed in Tripoli Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from El Agheila: 1 5-supply EDIT: Adding units owned by Italians to El Agheila: 3 1-supplys EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Mersa Brega: 1 5-supply EDIT: Adding units owned by Uncontrolled to Mersa Brega: 3 1-supplys EDIT: Removing units owned by Italians from El Agheila: 2 1-supplys EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Mersa Brega: 1 scoutcar EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Mersa Brega: 1 artillery and 1 mech EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Mersa Brega: 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 matilda EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Mersa Brega: 1 UK-truck EDIT: Adding units owned by Germans to Mersa Brega: 1 UK-truck EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Trigger RemoveCoastRoadTripoli: has removed 1 coast_road owned by Germans in Tripoli 1 G-bomber and 1 G-fighter moved from Mersa Brega to El Agheila 1 mech moved from Tripoli to Mersa Brega Place Units - Germans 1 1-supply and 2 G-fighters placed in Tripoli Convoy G Assign Convoy Escorts - Germans Trigger AllowGermanFighterToStayAtSea: Setting carrierCost to 0 for unitAttachment attached to G-fighter Trigger AllowGermanBomberToStayAtSea: Setting carrierCost to 0 for unitAttachment attached to G-bomber Trigger ReduceMovementGermanAircraft: Setting movement to 2 for unitAttachment attached to G-fighter Trigger ReduceMovementGermanAircraft: Setting movement to 2 for unitAttachment attached to G-bomber Trigger 1British5-supplyCairo: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2British1-supplyMalta: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British1-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2British5-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2British1-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2German1-supplyTripoli: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2British1-supplyBenghazi: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British5-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 3British1-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 3British1-supplyBenghazi: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British1-supplyBenghazi: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1German1-supplyTripoli Convoy G: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 3German1-supplyTripoli: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1Italian1-supplyEl Agheila: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1German1-supplyTripoli: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British1-supplyMalta: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 3British5-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger IncreaseAircraftMovementTo4: Setting movement to 4 for unitAttachment attached to G-fighter Trigger IncreaseAircraftMovementTo4: Setting movement to 4 for unitAttachment attached to G-bomber 1 G-bomber moved from Sicily to Sea Zone 13 2 G-fighters moved from Tripoli Convoy G to Sea Zone 13 End Turn - Germans Germans collect 0 PUs; end with 4 PUs Objective Germans Base Income: Germans met a national objective for an additional 25 PUs; end with 29 PUsExperimental Alpha 4 Game - Wrongway Corrigan vs. Noll
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I think we agree that this is a game of dice, and the dice can be crazy.
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anyway, at the end of the day, I’m not ready to comment on balance after 1 game, but I do believe that it played out like WW II.
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1.) UK fleet in 91, 98, 110, 112 move to 111 (includes tac bomb on cv)
2.) Naval base in Scotland
3.) airbase on Gibraltar
4.) fighter on Malta and gib removed, moved to Scotland
5.) interceptors shoot at 2
6.) USSR Dow rights delayed to Round 6
7.) USA DOW rights delayed to Round 8
8.) One consolidated income for UK, to be used as they see fit
9.) Amphib Assaults attack at -1
10.) France and Italy switch sides? -
I wanna add something else to the luck factor
what’s the chance of 16chinese inf +1chinese fig hitting 4 total in defense?
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1.) UK fleet in 91, 98, 110, 112 move to 111 (includes tac bomb on cv)
2.) Naval base in Scotland
3.) airbase on Gibraltar
4.) fighter on Malta and gib removed, moved to Scotland
5.) interceptors shoot at 2
6.) USSR Dow rights delayed to Round 6
7.) USA DOW rights delayed “end of” Round 8
8.) One consolidated income for UK, to be used as they see fitFrance and Italy switch sides = no! It’s too complicated, also, if Italy switches side I think it will help the Axis more xD
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since the expected number of hits is 6, probably greater than you believe, certainly greater than 5%,
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Something like 45% instead of 33% in the attacker favor? :-D
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Anyway I had something in mind but it might need a lot of tweak.
Removing Anzac to play, making Australia part of UK, making UK a very big power, giving it also the Anzac NOs.
Removing 10 to 20 NOs from USA.
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Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 416@2: (4, 2, 5, 3, 6, 1, 3, 5, 6, 5, 4, 6, 4, 1, 4, 1)1@4: (6)
Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 816@2: (4, 5, 1, 3, 1, 4, 2, 1, 5, 2, 2, 6, 2, 2, 4, 4)1@4: (6)
Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 616@2: (6, 3, 1, 2, 1, 1, 6, 5, 6, 4, 6, 3, 4, 6, 1, 3)1@4: (1)
Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 716@2: (4, 4, 4, 5, 4, 2, 6, 6, 2, 1, 1, 5, 4, 1, 4, 1)1@4: (1)
Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 916@2: (6, 2, 1, 6, 1, 1, 3, 1, 3, 1, 6, 4, 4, 6, 2, 1)1@4: (3)
Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 516@2: (6, 5, 5, 6, 4, 1, 1, 5, 5, 5, 5, 2, 6, 6, 2, 1)1@4: (6)
Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 1216@2: (1, 2, 1, 3, 2, 3, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 4, 2, 6)1@4: (3)
Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 716@2: (1, 4, 3, 2, 2, 1, 6, 1, 3, 6, 6, 5, 1, 6, 5, 2)1@4: (6)
Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 316@2: (2, 4, 3, 5, 5, 3, 5, 6, 5, 6, 3, 6, 5, 6, 1, 3)1@4: (2)
Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 616@2: (2, 5, 3, 2, 5, 6, 2, 4, 4, 2, 4, 2, 3, 3, 4, 1)1@4: (6) -
less than 5hits = 2/10
6+ hits = 7/105%? :-D
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I said certainly greater than 5%.
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try 121 shots at 2, 10 times or even a hundred times. Then try 12 shots at 2, you’ll see there’s a lot more variability as a percentage of the expected in the smaller number of dice.
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of course.
Things get “standard” on bigger numbers actually. Something like 1000dices.
For example the 120 dices
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 33120@2: (4, 6, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 2, 3, 6, 6, 6, 3, 6, 3, 1, 1, 5, 3, 1, 1, 5, 5, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 4, 4, 2, 4, 5, 6, 6, 1, 6, 6, 6, 3, 5, 3, 4, 6, 2, 6, 6, 2, 4, 5, 5, 2, 2, 2, 6, 1, 5, 3, 2, 3, 1, 4, 6, 5, 4, 6, 5, 4, 5, 5, 6, 4, 2, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 5, 6, 2, 4, 2, 4, 5, 1, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6, 4, 3, 6, 3, 6, 5, 2, 3, 4, 1, 3, 1, 2, 5, 4, 5, 1, 6, 4, 6, 1, 1, 1, 4, 6)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 43120@2: (2, 2, 3, 5, 6, 2, 3, 3, 2, 6, 2, 6, 1, 5, 3, 1, 1, 4, 3, 6, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 6, 1, 5, 1, 5, 4, 3, 1, 6, 2, 6, 2, 5, 2, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 6, 5, 4, 4, 1, 4, 4, 2, 4, 4, 6, 4, 5, 5, 5, 4, 2, 1, 4, 2, 3, 4, 4, 1, 6, 1, 5, 4, 4, 2, 6, 4, 1, 4, 1, 2, 1, 5, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 6, 6, 3, 1, 3, 5, 4, 1, 3, 4, 6, 3, 2, 4, 1, 4, 4, 5, 4, 1, 6, 5, 1, 4, 2, 5, 1, 5, 1, 2)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 36120@2: (6, 1, 1, 3, 1, 4, 2, 4, 4, 4, 2, 4, 1, 4, 1, 2, 2, 5, 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, 6, 3, 6, 5, 3, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 5, 1, 6, 3, 2, 4, 6, 6, 6, 4, 6, 4, 5, 1, 5, 3, 6, 4, 2, 5, 2, 1, 1, 2, 6, 4, 6, 5, 2, 4, 4, 1, 5, 3, 3, 1, 1, 3, 1, 1, 6, 6, 4, 5, 1, 2, 1, 1, 5, 3, 5, 6, 3, 6, 1, 2, 3, 1, 6, 5, 5, 3, 5, 4, 6, 1, 5, 1, 4, 5, 2, 4, 4, 5, 2, 5, 1, 3, 5, 5, 5, 4, 5, 2, 4, 6, 3)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 37120@2: (6, 1, 3, 5, 6, 6, 3, 3, 6, 4, 1, 1, 1, 5, 2, 4, 3, 1, 6, 2, 1, 2, 6, 6, 6, 4, 5, 1, 1, 4, 4, 1, 5, 1, 5, 4, 1, 2, 6, 1, 6, 1, 1, 6, 6, 3, 4, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 4, 3, 5, 2, 1, 6, 3, 5, 4, 3, 3, 5, 2, 1, 5, 4, 1, 5, 3, 1, 6, 2, 1, 3, 6, 3, 6, 3, 1, 3, 2, 5, 6, 6, 6, 1, 5, 2, 6, 3, 5, 3, 1, 6, 3, 5, 3, 3, 4, 5, 4, 4, 1, 5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 2, 3, 5, 6, 3, 4, 6, 4)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 41120@2: (3, 1, 3, 5, 6, 5, 5, 5, 1, 4, 2, 4, 2, 1, 1, 6, 2, 6, 1, 3, 6, 1, 6, 2, 4, 4, 2, 6, 1, 1, 4, 4, 2, 6, 2, 1, 4, 1, 6, 5, 5, 2, 3, 1, 3, 4, 1, 4, 3, 1, 1, 3, 1, 6, 4, 4, 3, 6, 4, 4, 6, 1, 1, 2, 6, 3, 3, 4, 4, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 3, 6, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 4, 4, 4, 1, 6, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 4, 2, 1, 1, 5, 3, 4, 2, 6, 2, 4, 6, 4, 1, 3, 2, 4, 1, 2, 2, 4, 6, 2, 4, 3) -
Expected result is 40 so my rolls where quite balanced.
Let’s try again
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 35120@2: (5, 3, 3, 6, 3, 4, 4, 4, 1, 1, 2, 2, 6, 1, 3, 1, 5, 3, 1, 6, 6, 3, 3, 6, 5, 6, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 1, 5, 1, 1, 2, 5, 4, 6, 5, 5, 1, 1, 4, 2, 4, 5, 1, 6, 5, 1, 5, 1, 3, 4, 6, 3, 1, 2, 6, 3, 6, 6, 2, 1, 6, 3, 5, 4, 2, 4, 2, 3, 5, 6, 5, 2, 4, 5, 1, 3, 5, 5, 4, 2, 3, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 6, 4, 4, 2, 4, 3, 4, 3, 1, 5, 1, 2, 2, 5, 2, 6, 6, 5, 4, 6, 2, 3, 5, 5, 5, 2, 2, 4, 5)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 42120@2: (6, 2, 5, 4, 5, 6, 2, 2, 4, 4, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 5, 3, 2, 4, 1, 1, 6, 4, 6, 4, 3, 1, 5, 1, 6, 5, 2, 5, 2, 1, 5, 4, 2, 2, 1, 4, 5, 5, 2, 3, 1, 1, 6, 3, 5, 1, 3, 4, 4, 3, 1, 1, 4, 6, 1, 4, 5, 3, 2, 6, 3, 6, 4, 5, 2, 5, 2, 1, 3, 4, 3, 4, 4, 2, 1, 2, 2, 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 1, 3, 6, 1, 6, 4, 4, 2, 4, 6, 2, 1, 5, 4, 5, 1, 4, 2, 4, 6, 6, 1, 2, 6, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 47120@2: (5, 1, 4, 5, 5, 1, 6, 2, 1, 1, 3, 5, 5, 2, 6, 2, 3, 3, 2, 3, 4, 3, 2, 6, 6, 5, 1, 3, 1, 3, 5, 5, 3, 2, 4, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 6, 2, 2, 2, 1, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6, 1, 2, 2, 6, 2, 6, 1, 4, 6, 3, 3, 5, 6, 5, 2, 2, 1, 5, 5, 4, 2, 5, 6, 4, 6, 1, 2, 3, 4, 1, 3, 4, 2, 5, 4, 4, 4, 5, 1, 4, 2, 4, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 6, 3, 5, 5, 1, 4, 5, 2, 1, 3, 2, 4, 1, 4, 2, 4, 1, 6, 2)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 35120@2: (2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 4, 6, 1, 6, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 5, 5, 4, 3, 4, 6, 4, 6, 2, 2, 6, 5, 3, 4, 5, 3, 5, 1, 5, 2, 5, 3, 6, 5, 3, 6, 6, 4, 1, 6, 1, 6, 4, 5, 2, 1, 4, 6, 1, 6, 1, 6, 4, 4, 3, 3, 6, 2, 3, 5, 4, 2, 1, 4, 6, 3, 4, 5, 1, 4, 4, 1, 3, 1, 6, 5, 2, 4, 4, 2, 3, 5, 2, 6, 3, 5, 2, 3, 6, 5, 1, 4, 6, 2, 1, 6, 5, 5, 4, 5, 2, 1, 5, 4, 2, 5, 3, 4, 2, 6, 6, 4, 5, 1, 4, 1)
Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 39120@2: (5, 6, 3, 5, 4, 4, 3, 4, 5, 3, 3, 3, 1, 1, 2, 3, 1, 1, 6, 3, 5, 2, 6, 6, 2, 6, 4, 1, 6, 1, 1, 5, 6, 4, 4, 4, 2, 6, 2, 6, 3, 4, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 5, 5, 6, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3, 4, 1, 6, 4, 1, 1, 5, 5, 1, 3, 3, 5, 4, 3, 6, 4, 5, 4, 1, 2, 2, 5, 2, 1, 3, 1, 2, 6, 3, 3, 2, 6, 4, 2, 4, 4, 3, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 1, 1, 2, 1, 4, 6, 4, 4, 2, 6, 3, 4, 6, 5, 4, 2, 5, 1, 5, 6, 1, 2, 2) -
The best roll had 47 hits, 7more than expected is nothing in a 120dice count.
Indeed you had bad dices on your side, still this can be expected unfortunately. And I think it’s part of the fun of the game. If you can predict the outcome of a battle 100% of the times, the game become boring.
You had 86% chances of winning that battle. I guess the 14% striked you back.
14% is not that hard to achieve, it happens around 1/6 of the times.
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In my local game group I’m not very lucky, actually I’m always very cursed with the dices. I still win the games though, 'cause they’re not as experienced as I am.
In one game I was able to lose India with something like:
12inf 10rtl 3arm 12+ aircrafts
vs
20inf -
the fact that it came down to a battle the axis could have won, and possibly won the game if they won the battle, is some indication that the game isn’t horribly unbalanced – now I realize that you and Jen want to teach me how a crush Russia strategy will unbalance this setup.
Truthfully, although this is interesting for me - and I really believe this plays out like WWII more than any other version, I think we need to give the new Krieghund modifications a chance.
Amazing how we had a major battle in Ukraine in the Winter of 1943-44, how the italians pushed on Stalingrad - albeit from a different direction in Winter 1942-43, how the destroyer-submarine warfare in DEI played out.
The stalemate in the Pacific is a bit of a problem; however, even the standard 1940 game doesn’t really promote action that reminds me of the actual war. I think we need cheaper transports and amphib assault rules.
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and thanks for at least acknowledging that I had some bad dice in that last battle.
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you hit 54 out of 121 in your opening round, in your simulated results right now, you didn’t even get close to that, best of 10 was 47 hits, 7 less than what actually occurred, so I stand by my statement that the result was flukey.
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believe it or not, once I survived the aa gun shots with only 1 hit, my chances were even above 90%, the chance of the aa hitting 2 or 3 planes is what kept the original odds around 90%.
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