Experimental Alpha 4 Game - Wrongway Corrigan vs. Noll

corriganbp

I think we agree that this is a game of dice, and the dice can be crazy.

corriganbp

anyway, at the end of the day, I’m not ready to comment on balance after 1 game, but I do believe that it played out like WW II.

corriganbp

1.) UK fleet in 91, 98, 110, 112 move to 111 (includes tac bomb on cv)
2.) Naval base in Scotland
3.) airbase on Gibraltar
4.) fighter on Malta and gib removed, moved to Scotland
5.) interceptors shoot at 2
6.) USSR Dow rights delayed to Round 6
7.) USA DOW rights delayed to Round 8
8.) One consolidated income for UK, to be used as they see fit
9.) Amphib Assaults attack at -1
10.) France and Italy switch sides?

Noll

I wanna add something else to the luck factor

what’s the chance of 16chinese inf +1chinese fig hitting 4 total in defense?

Noll

@corriganbp:

1.) UK fleet in 91, 98, 110, 112 move to 111 (includes tac bomb on cv)
2.) Naval base in Scotland
3.) airbase on Gibraltar
4.) fighter on Malta and gib removed, moved to Scotland
5.) interceptors shoot at 2
6.) USSR Dow rights delayed to Round 6
7.) USA DOW rights delayed “end of” Round 8
8.) One consolidated income for UK, to be used as they see fit

France and Italy switch sides = no! It’s too complicated, also, if Italy switches side I think it will help the Axis more xD

corriganbp

since the expected number of hits is 6, probably greater than you believe, certainly greater than 5%,

Noll

Something like 45% instead of 33% in the attacker favor? :-D

Noll

Anyway I had something in mind but it might need a lot of tweak.

Removing Anzac to play, making Australia part of UK, making UK a very big power, giving it also the Anzac NOs.

Removing 10 to 20 NOs from USA.

Noll

Dice Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 416@2: (4, 2, 5, 3, 6, 1, 3, 5, 6, 5, 4, 6, 4, 1, 4, 1)1@4: (6)
Dice Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 816@2: (4, 5, 1, 3, 1, 4, 2, 1, 5, 2, 2, 6, 2, 2, 4, 4)1@4: (6)
Dice Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 616@2: (6, 3, 1, 2, 1, 1, 6, 5, 6, 4, 6, 3, 4, 6, 1, 3)1@4: (1)
Dice Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 716@2: (4, 4, 4, 5, 4, 2, 6, 6, 2, 1, 1, 5, 4, 1, 4, 1)1@4: (1)
Dice Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 916@2: (6, 2, 1, 6, 1, 1, 3, 1, 3, 1, 6, 4, 4, 6, 2, 1)1@4: (3)
Dice Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 516@2: (6, 5, 5, 6, 4, 1, 1, 5, 5, 5, 5, 2, 6, 6, 2, 1)1@4: (6)
Dice Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 1216@2: (1, 2, 1, 3, 2, 3, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 4, 2, 6)1@4: (3)
Dice Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 716@2: (1, 4, 3, 2, 2, 1, 6, 1, 3, 6, 6, 5, 1, 6, 5, 2)1@4: (6)
Dice Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 316@2: (2, 4, 3, 5, 5, 3, 5, 6, 5, 6, 3, 6, 5, 6, 1, 3)1@4: (2)
Dice Rolls: 16@2 1@4; Total Hits: 616@2: (2, 5, 3, 2, 5, 6, 2, 4, 4, 2, 4, 2, 3, 3, 4, 1)1@4: (6)

Noll

less than 5hits = 2/10
6+ hits = 7/10

5%? :-D

corriganbp

I said certainly greater than 5%.

corriganbp

try 121 shots at 2, 10 times or even a hundred times. Then try 12 shots at 2, you’ll see there’s a lot more variability as a percentage of the expected in the smaller number of dice.

Noll

of course.

Things get “standard” on bigger numbers actually. Something like 1000dices.

For example the 120 dices

Dice Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 33120@2: (4, 6, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 2, 3, 6, 6, 6, 3, 6, 3, 1, 1, 5, 3, 1, 1, 5, 5, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 4, 4, 2, 4, 5, 6, 6, 1, 6, 6, 6, 3, 5, 3, 4, 6, 2, 6, 6, 2, 4, 5, 5, 2, 2, 2, 6, 1, 5, 3, 2, 3, 1, 4, 6, 5, 4, 6, 5, 4, 5, 5, 6, 4, 2, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 5, 6, 2, 4, 2, 4, 5, 1, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6, 4, 3, 6, 3, 6, 5, 2, 3, 4, 1, 3, 1, 2, 5, 4, 5, 1, 6, 4, 6, 1, 1, 1, 4, 6)
Dice Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 43120@2: (2, 2, 3, 5, 6, 2, 3, 3, 2, 6, 2, 6, 1, 5, 3, 1, 1, 4, 3, 6, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 6, 1, 5, 1, 5, 4, 3, 1, 6, 2, 6, 2, 5, 2, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 6, 5, 4, 4, 1, 4, 4, 2, 4, 4, 6, 4, 5, 5, 5, 4, 2, 1, 4, 2, 3, 4, 4, 1, 6, 1, 5, 4, 4, 2, 6, 4, 1, 4, 1, 2, 1, 5, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 6, 6, 3, 1, 3, 5, 4, 1, 3, 4, 6, 3, 2, 4, 1, 4, 4, 5, 4, 1, 6, 5, 1, 4, 2, 5, 1, 5, 1, 2)
Dice Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 36120@2: (6, 1, 1, 3, 1, 4, 2, 4, 4, 4, 2, 4, 1, 4, 1, 2, 2, 5, 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, 6, 3, 6, 5, 3, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 5, 1, 6, 3, 2, 4, 6, 6, 6, 4, 6, 4, 5, 1, 5, 3, 6, 4, 2, 5, 2, 1, 1, 2, 6, 4, 6, 5, 2, 4, 4, 1, 5, 3, 3, 1, 1, 3, 1, 1, 6, 6, 4, 5, 1, 2, 1, 1, 5, 3, 5, 6, 3, 6, 1, 2, 3, 1, 6, 5, 5, 3, 5, 4, 6, 1, 5, 1, 4, 5, 2, 4, 4, 5, 2, 5, 1, 3, 5, 5, 5, 4, 5, 2, 4, 6, 3)
Dice Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 37120@2: (6, 1, 3, 5, 6, 6, 3, 3, 6, 4, 1, 1, 1, 5, 2, 4, 3, 1, 6, 2, 1, 2, 6, 6, 6, 4, 5, 1, 1, 4, 4, 1, 5, 1, 5, 4, 1, 2, 6, 1, 6, 1, 1, 6, 6, 3, 4, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 4, 3, 5, 2, 1, 6, 3, 5, 4, 3, 3, 5, 2, 1, 5, 4, 1, 5, 3, 1, 6, 2, 1, 3, 6, 3, 6, 3, 1, 3, 2, 5, 6, 6, 6, 1, 5, 2, 6, 3, 5, 3, 1, 6, 3, 5, 3, 3, 4, 5, 4, 4, 1, 5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 2, 3, 5, 6, 3, 4, 6, 4)
Dice Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 41120@2: (3, 1, 3, 5, 6, 5, 5, 5, 1, 4, 2, 4, 2, 1, 1, 6, 2, 6, 1, 3, 6, 1, 6, 2, 4, 4, 2, 6, 1, 1, 4, 4, 2, 6, 2, 1, 4, 1, 6, 5, 5, 2, 3, 1, 3, 4, 1, 4, 3, 1, 1, 3, 1, 6, 4, 4, 3, 6, 4, 4, 6, 1, 1, 2, 6, 3, 3, 4, 4, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 3, 6, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 4, 4, 4, 1, 6, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 4, 2, 1, 1, 5, 3, 4, 2, 6, 2, 4, 6, 4, 1, 3, 2, 4, 1, 2, 2, 4, 6, 2, 4, 3)

Noll

Expected result is 40 so my rolls where quite balanced.

Let’s try again

Dice Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 35120@2: (5, 3, 3, 6, 3, 4, 4, 4, 1, 1, 2, 2, 6, 1, 3, 1, 5, 3, 1, 6, 6, 3, 3, 6, 5, 6, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 1, 5, 1, 1, 2, 5, 4, 6, 5, 5, 1, 1, 4, 2, 4, 5, 1, 6, 5, 1, 5, 1, 3, 4, 6, 3, 1, 2, 6, 3, 6, 6, 2, 1, 6, 3, 5, 4, 2, 4, 2, 3, 5, 6, 5, 2, 4, 5, 1, 3, 5, 5, 4, 2, 3, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 6, 4, 4, 2, 4, 3, 4, 3, 1, 5, 1, 2, 2, 5, 2, 6, 6, 5, 4, 6, 2, 3, 5, 5, 5, 2, 2, 4, 5)
Dice Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 42120@2: (6, 2, 5, 4, 5, 6, 2, 2, 4, 4, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 5, 3, 2, 4, 1, 1, 6, 4, 6, 4, 3, 1, 5, 1, 6, 5, 2, 5, 2, 1, 5, 4, 2, 2, 1, 4, 5, 5, 2, 3, 1, 1, 6, 3, 5, 1, 3, 4, 4, 3, 1, 1, 4, 6, 1, 4, 5, 3, 2, 6, 3, 6, 4, 5, 2, 5, 2, 1, 3, 4, 3, 4, 4, 2, 1, 2, 2, 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 1, 3, 6, 1, 6, 4, 4, 2, 4, 6, 2, 1, 5, 4, 5, 1, 4, 2, 4, 6, 6, 1, 2, 6, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3)
Dice Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 47120@2: (5, 1, 4, 5, 5, 1, 6, 2, 1, 1, 3, 5, 5, 2, 6, 2, 3, 3, 2, 3, 4, 3, 2, 6, 6, 5, 1, 3, 1, 3, 5, 5, 3, 2, 4, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 6, 2, 2, 2, 1, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6, 1, 2, 2, 6, 2, 6, 1, 4, 6, 3, 3, 5, 6, 5, 2, 2, 1, 5, 5, 4, 2, 5, 6, 4, 6, 1, 2, 3, 4, 1, 3, 4, 2, 5, 4, 4, 4, 5, 1, 4, 2, 4, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 6, 3, 5, 5, 1, 4, 5, 2, 1, 3, 2, 4, 1, 4, 2, 4, 1, 6, 2)
Dice Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 35120@2: (2, 3, 4, 5, 4, 4, 6, 1, 6, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 5, 5, 4, 3, 4, 6, 4, 6, 2, 2, 6, 5, 3, 4, 5, 3, 5, 1, 5, 2, 5, 3, 6, 5, 3, 6, 6, 4, 1, 6, 1, 6, 4, 5, 2, 1, 4, 6, 1, 6, 1, 6, 4, 4, 3, 3, 6, 2, 3, 5, 4, 2, 1, 4, 6, 3, 4, 5, 1, 4, 4, 1, 3, 1, 6, 5, 2, 4, 4, 2, 3, 5, 2, 6, 3, 5, 2, 3, 6, 5, 1, 4, 6, 2, 1, 6, 5, 5, 4, 5, 2, 1, 5, 4, 2, 5, 3, 4, 2, 6, 6, 4, 5, 1, 4, 1)
Dice Rolls: 120@2; Total Hits: 39120@2: (5, 6, 3, 5, 4, 4, 3, 4, 5, 3, 3, 3, 1, 1, 2, 3, 1, 1, 6, 3, 5, 2, 6, 6, 2, 6, 4, 1, 6, 1, 1, 5, 6, 4, 4, 4, 2, 6, 2, 6, 3, 4, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 5, 5, 6, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3, 4, 1, 6, 4, 1, 1, 5, 5, 1, 3, 3, 5, 4, 3, 6, 4, 5, 4, 1, 2, 2, 5, 2, 1, 3, 1, 2, 6, 3, 3, 2, 6, 4, 2, 4, 4, 3, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 1, 1, 2, 1, 4, 6, 4, 4, 2, 6, 3, 4, 6, 5, 4, 2, 5, 1, 5, 6, 1, 2, 2)

Noll

The best roll had 47 hits, 7more than expected is nothing in a 120dice count.

Indeed you had bad dices on your side, still this can be expected unfortunately. And I think it’s part of the fun of the game. If you can predict the outcome of a battle 100% of the times, the game become boring.

You had 86% chances of winning that battle. I guess the 14% striked you back.

14% is not that hard to achieve, it happens around 1/6 of the times.

Noll

In my local game group I’m not very lucky, actually I’m always very cursed with the dices. I still win the games though, 'cause they’re not as experienced as I am.

In one game I was able to lose India with something like:
12inf 10rtl 3arm 12+ aircrafts
vs
20inf

corriganbp

the fact that it came down to a battle the axis could have won, and possibly won the game if they won the battle, is some indication that the game isn’t horribly unbalanced – now I realize that you and Jen want to teach me how a crush Russia strategy will unbalance this setup.

Truthfully, although this is interesting for me - and I really believe this plays out like WWII more than any other version, I think we need to give the new Krieghund modifications a chance.

Amazing how we had a major battle in Ukraine in the Winter of 1943-44, how the italians pushed on Stalingrad - albeit from a different direction in Winter 1942-43, how the destroyer-submarine warfare in DEI played out.

The stalemate in the Pacific is a bit of a problem; however, even the standard 1940 game doesn’t really promote action that reminds me of the actual war. I think we need cheaper transports and amphib assault rules.

corriganbp

and thanks for at least acknowledging that I had some bad dice in that last battle.

corriganbp

you hit 54 out of 121 in your opening round, in your simulated results right now, you didn’t even get close to that, best of 10 was 47 hits, 7 less than what actually occurred, so I stand by my statement that the result was flukey.

corriganbp

believe it or not, once I survived the aa gun shots with only 1 hit, my chances were even above 90%, the chance of the aa hitting 2 or 3 planes is what kept the original odds around 90%.

Experimental Alpha 4 Game - Wrongway Corrigan vs. Noll

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