I think the broader issue is whether the UK can afford to let the Italians into SZ98 completely uncontested. Egypt seems super weak in the early going, and just letting them dump 2 transport loads in for free is going to bury the UK.
USSR is basically a lost cause, so the only thing keeping the Axis from a VC win is UK holding out in Egypt, or a very early D-Day and recapture of Paris.