I think Japan still would have invaded the Soviet Union though, if the Second Sino-Japanese War continued (the oil embargo only really happened once they invaded Indochina).
Other than that I agree with you. That would be curious alternate reality.
September 2, 2025, marks the formal surrender of the Empire of Japan on the USS Missouri to the Allies.
The surrender was primarily caused by the US dropping nuclear bombs on the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki (the only use of nuclear weapons in wartime) and the Soviet invasion of Japanese held Manchuria and the looming threat of the massive Red Army turning its sights on Japan.
And that, my friends, concludes the 80th anniversary of World War 2.