Germany attacks with:
28 - Infantry
3 - Mech Infantry
14 - Artillery
20 - Tanks
Russia defends with:
58 - Infantry
2 - Mech Infantry
2 - Tanks
2 - AA guns
1 - Strategic Bomber
1 - Tactical Bomber
7 - Fighters
Result?
Who will win that battle the majority of the time? (let’s say out of 5 times)
Russia - over 90%, as I’m getting.
Anyone know the result of this battle using low luck?
Not counting the AA guns my calc shows low 90% wins for Russia, less than 1% chance of MAD with around 160 IPC loss for Russia which is most of their infantry.
Note I don’t have a calculator for the AA guns as casualties.
Sorry to barge in, but while were on the subject……
What would the odds be of 5 inf 2 fig and 1 tac bomber -vs- 7 inf?
@Young:
Germany attacks with:
28 - Infantry
3 - Mech Infantry
14 - Artillery
20 - TanksRussia defends with:
58 - Infantry
2 - Mech Infantry
2 - Tanks
2 - AA guns
1 - Strategic Bomber
1 - Tactical Bomber
7 - FightersResult?
Who will win that battle the majority of the time? (let’s say out of 5 times)
It doesn’t include the new unit and unit values from Global but you can replace those (mechs are placed on the infantry box, tactical bombers on the bombers box if there’s also armor, etc). There’s isn’t no easy way to set it for naval battles that include carriers though.
DON’T ATTACK with Germany is the bottom line, I can tell you that without running the dice…
What would the odds be of 5 inf 2 fig and 1 tac bomber -vs- 7 inf?
Not too bad… 5 + 6 + 4 = 15 over 8 hits, vs 14 over 7 hits…
Thing is you are losing guys at 1, to his guys at 2 so… first round looks like this…
2.5 hits vs 2.2 hits… Assume 2 each
Second round
2.2 vs 1.8 assume 2 and 2…
In your last round… My guts going to tell me, you’ll have 1 or 2 inf + planes vs your opponents 1 or 2 inf…
So it all really depends on your luck in the first round, and your purpose for the attack… IE, is it his capital? Is it an NO? can you risk planes? Do you have to keep your INF alive? etc etc…
The pourpuse is to destroy the germany inf stack in finlan plus if u succeed and also take norway then thats 2 territories for that russian NO. Tonight i will probably roll it out a few times to get a better understanding.
If you have the means and the resources, then by all means ATTACK. You’ll kill units he can’t replace.
That said… judge after each round, dice can do amazing things… I would go in for 1 round, and see what happens. Your Worst case is you’ll roll bad / or he good, and you lose an extra infantry… Big deal.
If you can’t stand the risk of losing some units on a few different bets, then don’t even play the game!
I just figured the russians needed as many units they can get. I was going to do it anyway to destroy or just wound that stack
DON’T ATTACK with Germany is the bottom line, I can tell you that without running the dice…
What would the odds be of 5 inf 2 fig and 1 tac bomber -vs- 7 inf?
Not too bad… 5 + 6 + 4 = 15 over 8 hits, vs 14 over 7 hits…
Thing is you are losing guys at 1, to his guys at 2 so… first round looks like this…
2.5 hits vs 2.2 hits… Assume 2 each
Second round
2.2 vs 1.8 assume 2 and 2…
In your last round… My guts going to tell me, you’ll have 1 or 2 inf + planes vs your opponents 1 or 2 inf…
So it all really depends on your luck in the first round, and your purpose for the attack… IE, is it his capital? Is it an NO? can you risk planes? Do you have to keep your INF alive? etc etc…
79-81% chance to win that fight as the attacker. You lose around 21 IPCs at the cost of the defender’s 19 IPC. My guess is somewhere around losing 4 Inf and a Fighter when it is all said and done. Its uncommon from a land battle to not want to take the territory you are attacking, so you’d have to take that last fighter as a loss in order to take the territory and collect the IPC’s from it.
And that my friends, is why Guts, confidence, and RESOLVE, will beat any odds calculator. Any time.
……
So Germany should attack, assuming it has the guts?
:lol:
www.dskelly.com has an odds calculator with the 1940 rules
So Germany should attack, assuming it has the guts?
As I said, Guts, confidence, and resolve - will beat any odds calculator.
Clearly, when you have a weak attack, you might have the guts, but… you certainly won’t have the confidence, and the lack of units is your lack of resolve… so. Based on my gut, it’s a bad attack :P
So Germany should attack, assuming it has the guts?
As I said, Guts, confidence, and resolve - will beat any odds calculator.
Clearly, when you have a weak attack, you might have the guts, but… you certainly won’t have the confidence, and the lack of units is your lack of resolve… so. Based on my gut, it’s a bad attack :P
Wow, are you a politician in real life?
As a matter of fact… I DO do alot of political work.
If you net the losses in the small attack (presumed Russian counter) into the big attack on Moscow (which assumes nothing else changed):
Its still a 90-93% win for Russia with the same amount of losses.
That means net-net you didn’t change a damn thing by counter attacking and were better off playing turtle unless that counter attack bought you another turn before Germany got to Moscow.
I believe they are two seperate games Spendo… but good observations!
