Japan is the most flexible power, you can easily shift gears, build minors on Malaya and French Indo China and Hong Kong and a naval base in Hainan and airbase on Kwangsi, and hold the 4 money islands while you build up ground troops.
In the meantime kill off China and convoy all India’s money away with 2 subs. You can even strat bomb them but your bombers are usually needed for China.
Or work your way out to the Philippines/Carolines with the fleet and kill Queensland.
Japan can go a lot of ways. No need to throw away the Pacific on a 25% chance.