I calculate the difference between the number of units the battle calculator says the attacker should end up with and what they actually finish the battle with.
Axisplaya (Axis) vs Wheatbear(Allies) G40-A3
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No problem
SZ115
sub sneak
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (4)
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SZ115 remainder
A 1 cru, 2 fig, 2 strat
Rolls: 3@3 2@4; Total Hits: 43@3: (6, 3, 1)2@4: (1, 4)
D 1 cru
Rolls: 1@3; Total Hits: 01@3: (6)
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sz115 Soviet cruiser sunk without loss
bal, epl, kar, vyb twolNCM:
2 sub sz93 >> sz95
2 fig sz115 >> ger
2 fig, 2 tact sita >> wgr
2 strat sz115 >> wgr
1 sub sz112 >> sz125
3 aa pol >> bal
1 aa fin >> vyb
4 mech yugo >> pol
1 art wfr >> fra
7 inf, 6 art ger >> hun
1 trans sz115 >> sz113
1 inf, 1 art wgr >> gerMobilize:
1 sub sz127
1 dest sz113
6 inf, 4 art ger
2 inf finCollect 47 + 5 = 52 IPC
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Russia 3
Buy:
5inf (15)
art (4)
3tnk (18)CM
Epl (inf)
inf Bel
fgt, tac NovKar (inf)
inf, fgt NovEpl
Rolls: 1@1 1@3 1@4; Total Hits: 11@1: (2)1@3: (5)1@4: (2)
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (4)
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Epl twol
Kar
Rolls: 1@1 1@3; Total Hits: 11@1: (3)1@3: (3)
Rolls: 1@1; Total Hits: 01@1: (3)
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Kar twol
NCM per map
Place units:
3inf Sukr
2inf, art, 3tnk RusCollect : 36 IPC
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Japan 3
Buy (48/48)
1 minor IC
2 dest
2 figSBR on IND major IC
2 fig escort, 2 strat yunSZ38
1 sub, 1 fig sz37
1 tact yunSZ43
1 sub, 1 fig, 1 tact sz37SZ41
1 dest, 2 cru, 2 bsh sz35SZ55
1 dest, 1 fig, 1 tact sz37SUM
1 inf, 1 art mal load trans sz37 >> sz41 unload sum
1 inf, 1 art phi load trans sz35 >> sz41 unload sum
2 inf hon load trans sz20 >> sz41 unload sum
1 trans sz35 >> sz36 load 1 inf fic >> sz37 load 1 inf shn >> sz41 unload sum
1 fig sz37BUR
1 inf, 1 fig, 1 tact yunSZE
1 inf kweneed intercept orders IND
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sz38
A 1 sub, 1 fig, 1 tact
Rolls: 1@2 1@3 1@4; Total Hits: 21@2: (2)1@3: (4)1@4: (1)
D 1 dest
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (6)
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sz38 cwol
SZ43
A 1 sub, 1 fig, 1 tact
Rolls: 1@2 1@3 1@4; Total Hits: 31@2: (1)1@3: (1)1@4: (3)
D 1 dest
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (1)
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sz43 cwlo 1 sub
SZ41
A 1 dest, 2 cru, 2 bsh
Rolls: 1@2 2@3 2@4; Total Hits: 11@2: (3)2@3: (5, 6)2@4: (5, 2)
D 1 dest
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (2)
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sz41 cleared w damage to bsh
SZ55
A 1 dest, 1 fig, 1 tact
Rolls: 1@2 1@3 1@4; Total Hits: 01@2: (4)1@3: (6)1@4: (6)
D 1 dest
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (2)
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gah!
SZ55 r2
A 1 fig, 1 tact
Rolls: 1@3 1@4; Total Hits: 01@3: (5)1@4: (6)
D 1 dest
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (5)
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SZ55 r3
A 1 fig, 1 tact
Rolls: 1@3 1@4; Total Hits: 11@3: (5)1@4: (2)
D 1 dest
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (4)
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sz55 cwlo dest
SUM
A 6 inf, 2 art, 1 fig
Rolls: 4@1 4@2 1@3; Total Hits: 44@1: (6, 4, 1, 3)4@2: (2, 3, 5, 2)1@3: (3)
D 2 inf
Rolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 02@2: (4, 4)
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sum twol
BUR
A 1 inf, 1 fig, 1 tact
Rolls: 1@1 1@3 1@4; Total Hits: 11@1: (5)1@3: (2)1@4: (5)
D 1 inf
Rolls: 1@1; Total Hits: 01@1: (6)
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bur, sze twol
Since if you intercept the worst case scenario for Japan is taking both fighters as casualties, I will go ahead and roll the aa and bomber rolls that the UK can’t stop.
IND major IC aa
Rolls: 2@1; Total Hits: 02@1: (2, 2)
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bomber rolls
Rolling 2d6:
(1, 1) -
6 damage to IND major IC
NCM:
2 fig, 2 strat ind >> yun
2 tact ksu >> phi
2 tact ksu >> sz20
2 fig sz6 >> sz20
1 tact sz43 >> phi
1 tact bur >> yun
1 tact sz38 >> yun
2 fig sz6 >> phi
1 fig sum >> sz41
1 fig, 1 tact sz55 >> sz41
1 fig sz38 >> sz41
1 fig sz43 >> sz41
1 fig bur >> sz41
3 carrier sz37 >> sz41
1 dest sz37 >> sz42
2 sub, 1 dest, 2 carrier sz6 >> ss20
1 dest sz6 >> sz35
1 inf hon >> kwa
6 inf, 3 art hun >> yun
1 tank jeh >> hun
3 inf, 1 aa anh >> hun
4 inf jeh >> anh
1 inf hop >> kweMobilize:
1 minor IC fic
2 fig jap
2 dest sz6Collect 53 IPC
If you want a roll a dogfight, remove a fighter per hit off YUN.
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Just posting to remind in case you forgot this match. I’m not in any special rush :-)