Life has been in a bit of an upheaval the past few days.
I’m looking forward to sitting down and playing the next move, but not sure when, right now
I hope you don’t mind, thanks
@JWW:
Really? going 0-9 for a one is 20% likely? and 1-9 over 54%?? I am NOT a math guy and I have NO IDEA how you come to those calculations but they seem like really big numbers.
Yes.
I have an accurate A&A calculator.
I put in 9 bombers against 9 bombers for 1 round only, and looked at the % distribution.
Yes, there is a 20% chance that 9 1’s will miss completely.
G17 rpr 8 purch 3 inf & art spend 21 (save 1)
combat
#1a ukr (arm) v inf, art (bul)
#1 nwe (3inf, aa) v 4inf, art, arm & 3 fgt (ger)
#2 pol (inf) v 2inf (bul) & 4 fgt (ger)
#3 cze (inf) v 5inf & 10 arm (bul)
this is not looking good……
ukr attackRolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 12@2: (4, 2)v arm
Rolls: 1@3; Total Hits: 01@3: (6)
0.hit 19,38 %
1.hit 34,89 %
2.hit 27,91 %
3.hit 13,02 %
4.hit 3,91 %
5.hit 0,78 %
6.hit 0,10 %
7.hit 0,01 %
8.hit 0,00 %
9.hit 0,00 %
100,00 %
Just tought i should end the discussion. This is for 9 planes running against an AA. The probability is for that exact outcome. So for hitting 3 or less you have to add up 0.hit trough 3.hit etc.
ukr twol
NWE aa fireRolls: 3@1; Total Hits: 13@1: (1, 6, 3)this must be like 70% there isn’t a one?
BS, I don’t believe your math. doesn’t account for the randomness of dice. I prefer to hang in the quantum mechanics world where there is just too much chaos for lack of a better world to make such bold presumptions.
NWE attackRolls: 3@3 2@2 3@1; Total Hits: 33@3: (1, 4, 5)2@2: (1, 1)3@1: (3, 3, 4)v 3inf
Rolls: 3@2; Total Hits: 03@2: (3, 5, 4)
@JWW:
ukr twol
NWE aa fire
Rolls: 3@1; Total Hits: 13@1: (1, 6, 3)this must be like 70% there isn’t a one?
0.hit 57,87 %
1.hit 34,72 %
2.hit 6,94 %
3.hit 0,46 %
nwe twlo fgt
pol attackRolls: 4@3 2@1; Total Hits: 04@3: (6, 6, 6, 6)2@1: (3, 3)v inf
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (1)
really
Rolls: 4@3 1@1; Total Hits: 04@3: (6, 6, 4, 4)1@1: (6)v inf
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (2)
@JWW:
this must be like 70% there isn’t a one?
57.9%
Evil omens -
Looks like your sign to quit, JW
@Pin:
@JWW:
ukr twol
NWE aa fire
Rolls: 3@1; Total Hits: 13@1: (1, 6, 3)this must be like 70% there isn’t a one?
0.hit 57,87 %
1.hit 34,72 %
2.hit 6,94 %
3.hit 0,46 %
so basically, according to your chart you got lucky seeing as I had a 55% chance of not getting hit?
last post ill make about statistics, sorry but i love statistics :p
1st round 0,72 %
2nd round 0,87 %
total 0,01 %
This is the Poland battle odds for what happened, thats one sick sick outlier. You probably wont see such a skewed fight in most games you roll on this site :p
Evil omens -
Looks like your sign to quit, JW
yeah those odds are like stupid huh?
3rd waveRolls: 3@3 1@1; Total Hits: 43@3: (1, 3, 2)1@1: (1)v inf
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (3)
pol twlo fgt, inf
cze attackRolls: 10@3 5@1; Total Hits: 410@3: (4, 4, 1, 1, 6, 6, 6, 1, 6, 3)5@1: (5, 5, 3, 3, 2)v inf
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (6)
@JWW:
so basically, according to your chart you got lucky seeing as I had a 55% chance of not getting hit?
JWW, again you seem clueless. Pin has jumped in and made all these statistics posts. Not me.
Calculating the odds of a certain number of AA missing is easy. Take 5/6 to the Nth power.
5/6 to the 3rd (NWE) = 57.9%
5/6 to the 9th (USA’s) = 19.4%
Excel can do that.
And Pin, believe me, man, I have seen MANY dice results just as strange as Poland, there. Many. How about 5 of 6 aircraft shot down by AA on one turn? How about 13 tanks all missing, and the 3 defending tanks all hitting? I could go on.
cze twol
ncm:
all fgt’s fra
bul arm > ger
bul aa > cze
ger 8inf & 4 arm > fra
G collects 32
Pin, if you are going to jump into a hot game and start posting, you need to clearly identify yourself.
JWW understandably thought you were me.
That could cause some serious misunderstandings if you’re not careful. Thanks.
Think I’ll grab some McDonald’s first before making Russian move…
Shouldn’t move on an empty stomach.