It is my opinion that the France battle was due to insufficient attackers to negate the effects of the RNG (Random Number Generator.)
Average outcome of 10,000 battles
***Attacker: 8 Inf, 3 Art, 2 Arm, 1 Fig, 1 Bom.
v.
***Defender: 7 Inf, 2 Art, 2 Arm, 1 Fig.
Average battle duration: 3.4 rounds of combat
Overall %*:
***A. survives: 80.7%
***D. survives: 17.8%
***No one survives: 1.5%
Given the number of units and the amount of attacking "3"s vs defending "2"s this result is not highly implausible. It is, however, unfortunate and I do empathize with Whitmann.
The lack of France to fall, but remain vacant may be a blessing in disguise for Italy. Now they are prepared to collect an extra 23 IPC (19 treasury + 4 territory) from France to use in the Mediterreanian Sea.
In regards to the battle at Amur, I see no real fault in the attack plan. Sufficient punch was brought to bear for any realistic scenario that could be suspected. It is a simple case of the RNG screwing with the universe.
Average outcome of 10,000 battles
***Attacker: Attacker: 12 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Arm, 6 Fig, 5 Tactical.
v.
***Defender: Defender: 17 Inf.
Average battle duration: 2.5 rounds of combat
Overall %*:
***A. survives: 99.9%
***D. survives: 0.1%
***No one survives: 0%
The loss of 3 tactical bombers and one fighter in opening fire certainly was very unlucky. That is near 50% accuracy with an AA Gun that usually gets 17% accuracy. Within reason one should expect some modulation in the results, perhaps 9-25% range of accuracy.
The follow-up was just plain deadly. 9 of 17 hits (53% Accuracy) with units that have 33% accuracy.
To be honest, before making a decision I would really like to see a final Japan map. I understand the demoralizing situation, I’ve been there myself, as I am sure most players have been.
This is how I am ruling the case.
1) The battle in France, while having 80% odds of success and failing, is not detrimental to the outcome of the game. Since there are no defenders left in Paris, and I highly suspect that England is not going to be flying fighters in there to be helplessly slaughtered by the Italians, I feel the European axis have good chances of recovery. It should be interesting to see how Italy chooses to spend their unforeseen gains, financially! Woe be to the Royal Navy and African Defenders. I suspect mass carnage is soon to follow here.
2) Yugoslavia went badly for the Germans, but given how the naval engagements went, I do not feel the Germans are negatively impacted by this battle, in an overall military strength situation.
3) Japan’s attack on Amur was devastating to Japan. Japan had 40 punch going into the battle, Russia had 34 punch. One would have rightly assumed the loss of 3 aircraft and 10 infantry in that attack, far less than the dice revealed.
It is my opinion that the situation in Europe is far from unsalvagable. I realize that it can feel demoralizing to lose France, especially if you took more casualties than you expected too. I just do not see the situation there as too far gone to overcome. It is my opinion that Italy should be able to make up the difference and coupled with Germany’s effects at sea, Europe can be salvaged.
It is my opinion that Japan is too far in the hole to be an effective ally of the Germans and Italians. The loss of 150 IPC in the fields of Amur depleted them of so many resources that they probably will not be able to recover before Allies can enter the war.
Given that both players appear to be in agreement, I am willing to rewind the clock to the Conduct Combat Phase of Japan’s First Turn. All purchases and combat moves are final, but all dice may be rerolled.
Note: All dice must be rerolled or no dice can be rerolled.
Your map is attached. I hope the ruling is to everyone’s satisfaction, if there is an issue and you’d like me to consider something I may have missed, please feel free to PM me.
~Jennifer
G40_Whitmann(Axis)_vs_JamesAleman(Allies)_01Cjapan_conductcombat.AAM
Rolls: 2@1 2@2 1@3 1@4; Total Hits: 42@1: (1, 1)2@2: (2, 5)1@3: (6)1@4: (4)
