Can you set-up without the charts?

People on FB and here are continuing the discussion of subs–worthless or worthy, so I’ma gonna pull this plan back up to the top as an example of a detailed, sub based plan.

@ShadowHAwk:

Well since you have to take odds a 75% odds is pretty decent though.

The 25% when you lose is more devastating, cumulatively, than the 75% when you win.  In the 75% when Allies win, Axis usually does well enough that Italy can easily mop up in 97 and avoid getting convoyed.  The tuv loss to Axis can be small to none when we take the counter into account, although a successful 97 attack constrains Italy strategically.  But in the 25% when Allies lose, that’s a devastating defeat for Allies and hard to recover from.

It’s hard for Allies to bring enough material that there isn’t a good argument for an Axis scramble.  Still, if you bring 8-9 units (including the ac) then that might be scary enough that Axis won’t want to take the risk and prefer to wait till G2 for a (comparatively) low-risk counter.

If germany does 110 without the BB but with 1 sub 3 figs 3 tacticals 1 bomber they also got 80% of winning if the UK scrambles. Would you take the 20% odds as allies? Why would the axis take 20% odds and be considered smart.

Mostly yes, because the tuv exchange would be more favorable to Allies.  But in some cases UK might need to hold back (especially if 111 is a better scramble option).   There’s more upside to the 97 scramble with those odds because Axis wants to prevent the Allied convoy.

not many folks playing alpha 2 anymore.

After my own experiences with the different (surprise) sea lion options GE can conjure out of its hat, I usually do 1 of the following with the UK:

In case of a planned Sea Lion (GE1 you will know). Kill the malta ‘fleet’ with 1ftr+1tac, leave a dd in SZ94 and move the CV(2ftr)+CA to SZ93. Land the tac in Gibraltar if it survives. The TRS can pick up the AAA and INF from Malta and transport them to Gibraltar as well. Together with the UK1 + UK2 buys this will save the allies from a disastrous fall of London. If GE chickens out, all Gibraltar and SZ93 stuff stays/returns into the med to give Italy hell. Saving London may cost you Egypt for a few turns, but as long as you can keep your army alive and reinforce it from India (RAF) and fast units from SA (you can even buy RAF units there), you will take it back. If GE does NOT chicken out you will have a much harder time in Africa but after a long game you should be able to drive the Italians out (again, Indian reinforcements!) and the axis are much more likely to loose the game due to a very strong Russia and (if Japan allows it) USA liberating London

In case of a surprise Sea Lion (GE1 all barbarossa buys and movements). Personally I still play cautious with the UK, in fear of a nasty German surprise. As a result, I keep the STR in London (and buy 2more to destroy any surprise TRS builds), don’t scramble and don’t move a single spitfire out of Britain (with UK2 buying 1 or 2 CVs in the channel, all 4 spitfires can reach any surprise built German fleet). Therefore I cannot do ‘Taranto’ if GE also has scramblers there. Instead, I attack SZ 96 and strafe Tobruk, killing as many Italians without using the TRS. SZ96+99 will be blocked off to protect Egypt while I stack Alexandria to the max. The CV will go into SZ81 to receive an Indian tac+ftr. Persia will be aligned (use the TRS). IF Italy brings more troops into Africa, they are insignificant to what UK has left and their TRS will all be dead (and their protectors, if any). Alternatively, you can just stack Alexandria with the blockers in place. Really, Italy can never win in Africa unless GE is stubborn in executing Sea Lion, which should cost the axis the game in the long run anyway (given LowLuck results, that is).

That is as valid an opinion as mine.  :evil:

That’s okay, I would also increase the number of German submarines on the board and put some convoy zones out in the mid North Atlantic that hurt US Economy (and UK Economy)

But then, if we implemented my changes, the Germans would need a significant bid again probably.  So yea, in the case of game balance, realism does need to take a back seat (that is not to say forget it completely!)

@special:

@Thantonous:

and to go through the straights Turkey has to be controlled.

They don’t need to go through, Greece borders the Black Sea

Thats why I thought of doing the attack.

Thanks for the speedy reply!

The other issue is that Japan in the global game has nothing to do until turn 3 either, so this could seriously backfire.

The Japanese player simply has to say “if you declare war on me it’s gonna cost you Siberia” and the Japanese make a serious push into Russia with all his planes and Russia is screwed.  Buys the Pacific allies some time but may cost you Russia.