Game History
Round: 3 Purchase Units - Americans Americans buy 1 fighter, 4 infantry and 2 transports; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Americans Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode 1 destroyer and 1 submarine moved from British Convoy 2 Sea Zone to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from Denmark Strait Sea Zone to Soviet Convoy Sea Zone 1 bomber moved from United Kingdom to Soviet Convoy Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from Finland to Soviet Convoy Sea Zone 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from United States to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to South Atlantic Sea Zone 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from South Atlantic Sea Zone to Morocco Americans take Morocco from Germans Combat - Americans Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone: 1 submarine EDIT: Removing units owned by Americans from Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone: 1 submarine EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Soviet Convoy Sea Zone: 2 submarines EDIT: Removing units owned by Russians from Soviet Convoy Sea Zone: 1 submarine EDIT: Changing ownership of Soviet Convoy Sea Zone from Germans to Russians EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Battle in Soviet Convoy Sea Zone Americans attack with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter Battle in Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone Americans attack with 1 destroyer Non Combat Move - Americans 1 aaGun and 5 infantry moved from United States to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone 4 infantry and 2 transports moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Atlantic Sea Zone 4 infantry moved from Atlantic Sea Zone to United Kingdom 1 aaGun, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to South Atlantic Sea Zone 1 aaGun and 1 infantry moved from South Atlantic Sea Zone to Morocco 1 fighter moved from United Kingdom to Norway 1 bomber moved from Soviet Convoy Sea Zone to United Kingdom 1 fighter moved from Soviet Convoy Sea Zone to Norway Place Units - Americans 1 fighter and 4 infantry placed in United States 2 transports placed in U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone Turn Complete - Americans Americans collect 41 PUs; end with 41 PUsLemming (Allies) v Wheatbeer (Axis) g40 a2
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POL
A 2 inf, 1 art
Rolls: 1@1 2@2; Total Hits: 01@1: (6)2@2: (5, 5)D 1 inf
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (6) -
POL r2
A 2 inf, 1 art
Rolls: 1@1 2@2; Total Hits: 11@1: (4)2@2: (3, 2)D 1 inf
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (5) -
pol twol
EPL
aa fire
Rolls: 1@1; Total Hits: 01@1: (4) -
EPL
A 23 inf, 2 mech, 17 art, 6 tank, 1 fig
Rolls: 8@1 34@2 7@3; Total Hits: 258@1: (1, 5, 6, 1, 6, 6, 2, 3)34@2: (1, 6, 2, 1, 2, 1, 6, 2, 3, 3, 1, 3, 4, 3, 4, 2, 2, 5, 4, 1, 1, 6, 1, 1, 4, 1, 1, 3, 1, 3, 5, 1, 2, 1)7@3: (2, 3, 2, 1, 5, 4, 4)D 28 inf, 11 art, 7 tank, 1 tact, 1 fig
Rolls: 39@2 8@3 1@4; Total Hits: 1539@2: (5, 6, 1, 2, 4, 3, 3, 2, 6, 4, 3, 6, 5, 3, 3, 6, 4, 6, 6, 6, 5, 1, 2, 5, 2, 4, 6, 3, 3, 3, 6, 1, 3, 1, 3, 1, 3, 6, 3)8@3: (3, 3, 5, 2, 2, 2, 4, 1)1@4: (5) -
Did not expect that. I need to think.
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I guess I’ll push on.
EPL r2
A 8 inf, 2 mech, 17 art, 6 tank, 1 fig
Rolls: 27@2 7@3; Total Hits: 1027@2: (1, 2, 4, 6, 5, 3, 4, 4, 5, 4, 4, 3, 4, 5, 2, 2, 4, 1, 3, 1, 5, 4, 3, 6, 1, 1, 5)7@3: (2, 5, 3, 6, 6, 5, 4)D 3 inf, 11 art, 7 tank, 1 tact, 1 fig
Rolls: 14@2 8@3 1@4; Total Hits: 1014@2: (5, 3, 6, 3, 6, 5, 1, 3, 1, 4, 2, 2, 6, 6)8@3: (3, 2, 6, 2, 6, 3, 2, 6)1@4: (4) -
EPL r3
A 17 art, 6 tank, 1 fig
Rolls: 17@2 7@3; Total Hits: 817@2: (2, 5, 5, 2, 5, 3, 2, 3, 5, 6, 2, 2, 6, 1, 3, 2, 5)7@3: (6, 2, 5, 4, 6, 6, 4)D 4 art, 7 tank, 1 tact, 1 fig
Rolls: 4@2 8@3 1@4; Total Hits: 74@2: (1, 6, 6, 2)8@3: (6, 5, 3, 2, 4, 2, 3, 2)1@4: (5) -
EPL r4
A 10 art, 6 tank, 1 fig
Rolls: 10@2 7@3; Total Hits: 910@2: (6, 2, 4, 3, 6, 1, 1, 2, 1, 5)7@3: (5, 5, 1, 5, 1, 1, 2)D 3 tank, 1 tact, 1 fig
Rolls: 4@3 1@4; Total Hits: 14@3: (5, 5, 4, 6)1@4: (2) -
epl twlo 23 inf, 2 mech, 8 art
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NCM:
1 fig epl >> hun
1 aa gun hun >> epl
2 mech sita >> fra
2 carrier, 1 fig, 2 tact SZ98 >> SZ92
2 trans SZ98 >> SZ97
1 fig SZ98 >> sita
1 sub SZ95 >> SZ98
2 inf nita >> fra
4 inf wgr >> ger
4 inf, 3 art ger >> polMobilize:
7 inf wgr
10 inf gerCollect 44 IPC
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Think I can concede. The luck was just not realistic
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If you want me to reroll, I’m willing to do that rather than simply end the game.
But I have to point out that there was 5.4% chance of Germany doing that well or better and a 38.8% chance of Germany winning the battle overall (unless the odds calculator at frood.net is in error).
I am not denying I was lucky, but it wasn’t that improbable either.
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- the end result being 5.4% chance or better
After running round 1 probability, Germany’s hits on Round 1 alone being so effective was only a 0.8% chance.
Let me know whether you want a reroll or what.
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I’m not trying to worm my way out. I had a guy just quit on me after bad dice roll in fights he should never have tried, so I know it’s frustrating.
My calculator says your average IPC loss 169, mine 149, with a 40% chance you win vs a 60% chance I win.
By low-luck, you should have 81+342+73=97/6=16 MOD 1 hits
I should have 392+83+14=106/6=17 MOD 4 hits.
A difference of 10 more hits is way too huge in the first roll of a a near 50 dice per side battle.
I’m ok if you actually win, just not with 9 Art, 6 tanks and 1 fighter left :-)The kind of naval battle off Egypt earlier when my Med fleet was wiped out, or the crazy roll in Fin last round, I can certainly accept as part and parcel of the game. It’s high stakes and calculated risk, but with 50 dice a side and plenty of inf to soak the hits, you would think luck will even out. There’s no way I can change my strat to address this kind of extremes, unless you double my IPCs. It would be unplayable.
It’s a shame to end. I fought off a NZ kill but your Japs are ruling the Pacific. I’m just making Normandy but your Africa is rock solid, eastern front v balanced until this. Certainly a great game.
In my ftf games our house rule is not allowed to even try such mega fights with low margins, unless we are about to stop the game anyway. Just leaves a bad taste in everyone’s mouth otherwise.
I’ll leave it to you, we continue with low luck if you still want to roll for this? Unfair to make you swallow a lousy result too. I know you’re trying a hit and run, but normally I only do it when I have overwhelmingly superior hitting power which you do not. Your call.
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I just wanted to weaken EPL enough that it could not take POL and perhaps dissuade it from entering Romania again.
Low like is hitting power divided by 6 then rolling the remainder right?
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So MOD 4 means you’d roll 4@1 or 1@4?
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1@4.
Really if you are uncomfortable it’s cool too. -
I don’t mind using low luck for this battle given that I already risked significant losses. I don’t want to use low luck for the whole game though.
So I will roll for EPL r1 remainders
A
Rolls: 1@1; Total Hits: 01@1: (3)D
Rolls: 1@4; Total Hits: 01@4: (6) -
leaves us with
Germany
2 mech, 6 inf, 17 art, 6 tank, 1 fig
USSR
12 inf, 11 art, 7 tank, 1 tact, 1 fig
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still too many Russians :-P
Round 2 would be:
25@2 7@3 = 71, 11 hits mod5
23@2 8@3 1@4 = 12 hits mod2
right?





