Allied bid placement strategies

if i get it good it is illegal to place units in the territory and sz where your nation already do not have any units right?

For A&A.org:
Units must be joining unit(s) of the same power, and must be put on a territory controlled by the power (relevant for 1942 scenario).

So Germany can’t place units on Libya in 1942 and USA can’t put units on Great Britain.
DD blocking in Z8 and Russian subs in Pacific are not allowed (as Darth said) because there are no UK units in Z8 and no Russian units anywhere in the Pacific at game start.

Russian bomber on Bry to sink destroyer at 51 plus 2 transports is very risky. I would never do it against good competition. There is only a 57% chance the bomber sinks everything and survives. There is a 29% chance you trade the bomber for the destroyer. There is a 14.3% chance you lose and don’t sink the destroyer. Any part of the 43% is a horrible failure for your 12 bid, and you have no help in Egypt or Russia or the Atlantic.

Bids are over-rated, more often than not. Unlike Jenn, I have no problem allowing more than 2 units. I gave a bid of 19 to a very worthy opponent, and he took fighter to Bry (free sink of transport and fighter for rest of game like Zhuk said) and 3 infantry to Egypt (he could have added SIX units!). It’s now round 15, and I think it’s been a lock for my Axis for a couple of rounds now.
http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=24311.600

As Darth said, bids greater than 12 can be appropriate, depending on the players. In my experience, what happens with the dice on round 1 far outweighs any puny little bid of 12 or less. Bids are a great way to agree on sides, and not much more.

To address the original question, I think all the obvious places are good.
Russian front but not in BSt, Ukr, or EPl.
Fighter to Bry
At LEAST one infantry to Egypt (I agree with Zhuk - go with 2 units or more to prevent disaster) As Axis, I will attack Egypt on G1 even with one extra infantry there. Hit and run and let the Italians clean up on I1. In round 2 of the tournament I did precisely that, and the Germans took it over with a tank and bomber remaining. Opening round dice always matter a lot more than a bid. I’ve seen so many bids completely negated by round 1 dice or be rendered useless.
Sub to 35 may or may not be very effective. Sometimes it is, sometimes not so much.
Have thought about destroyer to 12, but never done it or had it done against me. Would increase your chances of saving Z2, but if you don’t add anything to Egypt at the same time, you’re just asking the German player to paste Egypt and hit zone 12 hard, leaving Z2. Yes, you get to start with 2 transports and a battleship, but pretty much losing your bid and Egypt would not be pretty. Maybe if you got a 13 bid and put a destroyer in 12 and a tank in Egypt?

I put an infantry and tank in Egypt in my Semi-Finals tournament game against the great Yoshi, and he went after North Africa hard - transporting Germans there for a couple turns and keeping some German air south, chasing my enlarged Egypt force south for the rest of the game. So even 8 IPC’s added to Egypt don’t ensure you trap the Italian fleet in the Med. At this point I’m thinking I should have let him have the Allies at 9 or 11 or whatever. But then again, he was blessed with no disasters on the first round, and I had a huge disaster on R2 so that pretty much set the direction for the game. It’s in about round 8 - you can see it here: http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=25806.240 So against a lesser opponent 8 may be ample for Egypt, but this game seems to indicate that 3-4 units in Egypt are not overkill.

good post gamer :)

i think the game will evolve in the future and that the bid will rise

i agree with U DM. i would even say maybe nothing to egy and all to eastern front

Enjoyed the post, DM
Good points

Combined with an early Allied assault on the Med navy, the heavy allied african bid can really slow Germany/Italy’s expansion.  Some players think it’s a bit costly, trading either USA planes or UK planes for the med fleet.  Keeping Italy from getting both her NO’s can make up for some of this sacrifice.

Allot depends on how well Russia is played as well, because if Germany’s all over Eastern Europe, Africa is a non-factor.

DM I agree with your reasoning–you are fine placing only 1 inf in Egy.  That attack is only 40% for Germany and requires the use of their bomber, which means there will be a higher risk of failure in sz12 and sz2.  That deployment is just too risky and will benefit Allies on average.

There’s also an argument for omitting the inf and giving the entire bid to Russia, based on the theory that Germany shouldn’t be attacking Egy even without the bid unit.  The attack on Egy is only 75%, and it involves greater risk at sz2 and sz12.

So far I rarely have the guts to go without the Egy bid though, since I’m not comfortable risking the possibility that Germany could attack 2, 12, and Egy and succeed everywhere.

@Zhukov44:

So far I rarely have the guts to go without the Egy bid though, since I’m comfortable risking the possibility that Germany could attack 2, 12, and Egy and succeed everywhere.

Did you mean not comfortable?  You don’t want someone to succeed on 2, 12 and Egypt all at once, right?  :-)

There is only one way allies should bid in 41.
Bid should be:

inf egypt
rest goes to soviet, use it only against germany

No fishy bids against japan, no navy bid for uk, if axis knows what to do you have lost already. Germany will hit Karelia, Egypt, Baltic, EP and Ukraine on the same time, game over…

If anyone disagree ill show the move.

@Gamerman01:

@Zhukov44:

So far I rarely have the guts to go without the Egy bid though, since I’m comfortable risking the possibility that Germany could attack 2, 12, and Egy and succeed everywhere.

Did you mean not comfortable?  You don’t want someone to succeed on 2, 12 and Egypt all at once, right?  :-)

Lol true that.

Expanding on this discussion……for a while some elite triplea players were in the habit of placing the entire bid in Russia (eg with the ll/nt ladder bid of 13, you buy inf 2 arm or 2 art arm and exert pressure on Germany early).  However, in a low luck game, that gives Germany a 90% chance of winning in Egy…too good to pass up imho.

It seems forgoing the bid placement in Egy was too costly for many and since then I’ve seen more placements of an inf in Egy plus 2 tanks in Russia then all bid units to Russia.

When it comes to dice games, I think there is a solid argument that hitting Egy is not a good idea even if there is no bid unit there…it’s a gambler’s play.  However for the Allies, forgoing that bid unit is also gamble…which doesn’t always pay off!

@Zhukov44:

When it comes to dice games, I think there is a solid argument that hitting Egy is not a good idea even if there is no bid unit there….it’s a gambler’s play.  However for the Allies, forgoing that bid unit is also gamble…which doesn’t always pay off!

TOTALLY agree with this!

@ErwinRommel:

There is only one way allies should bid in 41.
Bid should be:

inf egypt
rest goes to soviet, use it only against germany

No fishy bids against japan, no navy bid for uk, if axis knows what to do you have lost already. Germany will hit Karelia, Egypt, Baltic, EP and Ukraine on the same time, game over…

If anyone disagree ill show the move.

Sounds like more of a gambit to me, especially with the Karelia AAA being a huge variable.
Too many battles that can go wrong.  I’m sure when they all are successful, Germany wins easily.
How often does that happen?

Does Germany attack ANY UK shipping?

@axis_roll:

Sounds like more of a gambit to me, especially with the Karelia AAA being a huge variable.
Too many battles that can go wrong.  I’m sure when they all are successful, Germany wins easily.
How often does that happen?

Does Germany attack ANY UK shipping?

I was going to respond earlier, but thought I’d prefer if someone else weighed in on this one first.
I agree with axis_roll.  Attacking Karelia with everything available (except bomber which is going to Egypt) is a very aggressive move.  Sure, if all these battles work out well Germany would be in a great position.  But you can’t effectively attack the UK warships without any aircraft, and Karelia could be a disaster.  When you lose 2 or more planes there, it’s a major backfire.  Egypt is not a sure thing either.
Anyway, I do disagree, Erwin.  If I really want to make sure I win the game I will never attack Karelia on G1, and certainly not Karelia and Egypt at the same time.  When your 5 attacks work, you no doubt look like a genius.  But according to the odds, many times it will fail, and then you look incompetent, and might lose, too.
Enjoyed considering your idea, but no thanks.  There are reasons I have almost never seen anyone attack Karelia G1.  One of them is AA.  Another is reduced odds on BSt, EPl, and Ukr, Z6 (you have no air support).  If you lose one of them you lose the NO which would offset the one you get if you win in Karelia.  Another is no attack or less effective attack on Z2 and Z12.  If you don’t take down Russia fast, you will have severe issues with a powerful UK fleet with many transports.

Do you know how to play online?  :-)

Here is a open if allies choose a bad bid (destroyer or bid against japan)

Germany round one:
Buy 7inf and 2tnk or
      2inf and 5tnk

CM:

attack karelia with 3inf art 4fighter and cruiser shot

odds 91% in dice, low luck its 100%

attack egypt with 2inf art 2tank bmb

odds 75win, 82% draw, if england rolls good round 1 retreat

attack zone 6 with sub

attack zone 9 two subs

attack baltic 3inf,art,tnk

attack EP inf,3tnk

attack ukraine 3inf,art,2,tnk

If you get seruis unlucky just pull out, no problem.

If your playing against very inexperienced players and its only a question of time before you win its okey do do a safer move…

Thanks for the details, Rommel
I look forward to reviewing your opening again when I have a few minutes…

@ErwinRommel:

attack karelia with 3inf art 4fighter and cruiser shot

odds 91% in dice, low luck its 100%

Upper 25% result - Lose 1 infantry, 1 fighter
Median result - Lose 3 infantry, 1 fighter
Bottom 25% result - Lose 3 infantry, 2 fighters
So if you get “seriously unlucky”, you might lose all your ground units and a couple of planes and not even take Karelia.

attack egypt with 2inf art 2tank bmb

odds 75win, 82% draw, if england rolls good round 1 retreat

OK.

attack zone 6 with sub

40% chance you win, 40% chance you lose, 20% chance you both lose boat.  This is one of the things you’re giving up with your Karelia attack.  Using a fighter makes it highly unlikely the UK destroyer survives.

attack zone 9 two subs

40.7% chance you sink them both, 57% chance you lose both subs and the cruiser (or both) survives, 23.6% chance that you lose both subs and sink nothing at all.

attack baltic 3inf,art,tnk

OK

attack EP inf,3tnk

OK…. but you could lose 3 tanks this way after the counterattack…

attack ukraine 3inf,art,2,tnk

OK…

If you get seruis unlucky just pull out, no problem.

Depending on how unlucky and where and how many battles you lose, you could have huge problems.  It is pretty likely the UK will have a battleship, cruiser, destroyer, and 2 transports to start with (could have 3 destroyers if you are unlucky).  AA could shoot down a plane or 2 in Karelia, and/or you could lose a plane or two trying to take the territory.

This is a very aggressive and risky opening - not just for the G1 dice you will roll, but it’s also risky because you’re likely leaving the UK with too many starting ships.  Anyway, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anyone try attacking Karelia on G1, and definitely not Karelia and Egypt at the same time….

Again, you would “look like a genius” if you get good dice, and like a greedy novice if you don’t.   :-)

@ErwinRommel:

Here is a open if allies choose a bad bid (destroyer or bid against japan)

Germany round one:
Buy 7inf and 2tnk or
      2inf and 5tnk

CM:

attack karelia with 3inf art 4fighter and cruiser shot

odds 91% in dice, low luck its 100%

attack egypt with 2inf art 2tank bmb

odds 75win, 82% draw, if england rolls good round 1 retreat

attack zone 6 with sub

attack zone 9 two subs

attack baltic 3inf,art,tnk

attack EP inf,3tnk

attack ukraine 3inf,art,2,tnk

If you get seruis unlucky just pull out, no problem.

If your playing against very inexperienced players and its only a question of time before you win its okey do do a safer move…

Since Allies will place thier bid in egypt since keeping egypt has many  benefits and the discussion has led to a Kare attack.

If you go for Karelia(which i HIGHLY disagree with)
Any thought to…

Germany round one:
Buy 7inf and 2tnk

CM

attack sz6 with a sub and a cruiser
attack East poland 2 inf 3tanks
attack Kare 4fighters 3 inf, art
attack Ukraine, 2inf 1 art
attack baltics 3inf 1 art 3 tanks
attack 9 one bomber
attack 12 with two subs,

problem with egypt is if you lose(chances are there is a bid there) the italian navy is going to be attacked and the axis will never see africa so you need one hit in 12 to solve that problem
you need to hit 9 to get a transport.