@jim010:
You can just do as Cmdr Jen suggested, but land in Scotland on turn 3 instead and then hit turn 4. The odds are very good, but you have emptied Europe to do it.
The only option for UK is to hit Scotland for 2 turns and retreat, and hopefully the odds will have dropped for Germany.
Just out of curiosity, the UKs I play against usually have 4-5 air units, even with 6 I have the same question:
If I land 5 inf and 1 aagun in scotland turn 2(my standard sealion), or 17 inf and 1 aagun in Scotland on turn 3, would you attack these stacks, and would you use planes?
Typically you risk only losing one plane (however it feels like you either miss with everything or you hit twice), I like 5 units on turn 2 because its real easy to over hit and get stuck there. I generally build 2 carriers with Germany, and always favor a turn 4 capture, because I lose fewer men.
Your fear about Moscow taking Warsaw on turn 4 is less if you have 9-10 transports in sz 110 that can can bring land units to match your built land units on G4, this should give you enough to crack the Russian force unless it exceeds 50 units, at which case, you build 10 units in Berlin, drop off 18-20 along with the previous 10 units and your air force, this should drive Moscow back, and Lenningrad is easy pickings for you tranny fleet if he has a stack in Warsaw on turn 6.
Edit: If I’m going sea lion G4 and Russia is stacking my border, I also have 8-12 Italian land units in Berlin with 2-3 planes to calm my tummy down. That typically gives me 50+ land units with air to hold the Reich-stag. You ain’t blowing up my eagle that soon in the game.