@The:
My version of the polar express involves taking Alaska first
So no polar express doesn’t fail
Spring 1942: Central US adjacent to Eastern Canada, allowing US E Canada units and E US units to consolidate at Central US. Western Canada cannot be reached with one transport trip from Japan. Double whammy gives US plenty of time to react.
The timing is completely different.
If you’re going to set preconditions for Polar Express, like no US ground units in US, then you should mention it, because it’s so unusual. It’s like saying Germany should take and fortify Caucasus on G1 and Japan fly 4 fighters in. Against a Bel/WR opening, or WR/UKR opening, that’s nonsense. After a failed Russian triple attack, though, with 3 ground units surviving at Ukraine, and an 8 infantry Russia build, it’s an entirely different story. In one case, it’s suicide, in another it wins the game for Axis.