@simon33 in our game last year, Adam had a similar axis approach but he did both 110 and 111. I believe he still won both, but I had good dice and forced him to trade 7 air against my 4. My dice were certainly above average but it wasn’t an implausible outcome either. I think it is usually the right move to scramble the UK if it improves the TUV exchange for the allies and gives at least a small chance of winning. My guess here is Adam didn’t want to risk a repeat of that and opted for a safer attack.
The last time, he also avoided doing Yunnan. The extra China inf makes that a more difficult combat if Japan wants to do a J1 and hit the UK Battleship. In addition, he ultimately conserves Japanese land units. He still gets India J4 with pretty overwhelming numbers. and chases China away from Yunnan fairly quickly as well. In the end, in BM, the allies get 3 art instead of 4 inf and maybe an extra 4 to 8 income. Definitely useful but not game changing.
The US cruiser is a big swing first because if the Germans win outright they knock out 19 tuv. If they lose, they lose 6. They also convoy on the US and it denies the UK its BM bonus of a sub free Atlantic. Delaying Brazil by a turn also delays the entry of those 3 inf by a turn too. And in BM it also means the US can’t grab 5 with a landing in Morocco. And generally it will set the allies back by a turn in the atlantic and it probably mean they have to spend more on the atlantic early to compensate. Thiis also gives Germany more time to make landings in Europe difficult and reduces the early US spending on the pacific. These round 1 combats often have a larger impact throughout the game and if you are going to do a J1 anyway, its a good move in my view.
This is the third time I’ve beaten Adam’s Axis. But its the first time I’ve won where I feel that the dice didn’t do most of the work for me.