@gamerman01:
My question was when should one expect to hit their first tech, on average, when rolling 1 die per round. In other words, at one point does one get to a 50/50 chance of getting a tech?
In more technical terms, the “average” is the “population mean”. In our case, each “individual” of the population is a single rolling sequence until you get a tech and its value is the number of rolls needed to get it. If you try until you get a tech an infinite or at least an extremely high number of times (let’s say a million times or even more), you will find that the average number of rolls done to get a tech is 6. It’s that simple. Yes, you can get it on your first roll; however, you could need 20 rolls to get it. On average however, you will need 6 rolls i.e. you will get it with your 6th roll.
You have about a 50/50 chance (48.2%) to miss your first 4 rolls so the fifth roll may be the “point” you’re looking for…
@gamerman01:
In fact, I hit 4 straight techs with the Axis in a game I’m playing from round 2 into round 3. So my point is, you have a 100% of getting zero tech if you never buy a research die and if you never buy a research die you are not projecting the threat of hitting an instant tech to your opponent, who can play less defensively in accordance with the lack of threat. :-)
I agree with you. However, the effective (average) cost for acquiring techs could be much lower and it would not hurt the game at all. I know Larry doesn’t like techs and it shows more than ever. IMO, the AA50 system is much more interesting (and fun).