@San:
The number of turns you need on average with x die each turn is given by 1/(probability to get a tech each turn). So, it is n_turnsaverage = 1/(1-(5/6)x).
So, with 1 die every turn, on average, you will get a tech every 6 turns.
I know that 6 is the average number of turns that you would get a given result (in this case, a “6”).
But if you take a set of 6 rolls and assume that one is a hit (a “6”) wouldn’t that hit, on average, be in the middle of the 6 rolls? Wouldn’t the average (expected, if you will) first hit of a 6 (a breakthrough) come between attempt #3 and attempt #4?
I worked about 12 hours today and it’s time for bed. When I’m not fatigued, I could probably figure this out, but do you understand my question?
If I roll a die per turn, on average when would I hit my first 6? Are you saying on the 6th attempt? Because I’m not sure that’s right (but without crunching the numbers or using formulas). I’m thinking I could expect on average to hit it sooner.
Put another way - after rolling a die 3 times, would I not have a 50/50 chance of hitting a tech by that point? Isn’t that when I would hit my first tech, on average, after 3 rolls? Above average luck - hitting on roll 1, 2, and or 3, and below average luck, hitting on turn 4 or later?