Technology is a bad strategic investment

USA can afford to spend money on tech and the fleet one would be very useful as they will need to control both oceans.

@allweneedislove:

i used 30ipc for my analysis as i think it is a representation of what you will pay to acquire a tech. i am not sure what other number to use, as it is so variable…

Ummm. The entire premise for your analysis is flawed right from the get go.

30 IPC’s is not the average cost to aquire a tech. In truth there is no average cost. Each time you roll the d6 it is a distinct and seperate event that has no history or bearing on any past d6 rolls you may have made.

This misconception is extremely common and is known as “the Gamblers Fallacy” or “the Law of Averages”. It is the false belief that past failures of a singular random event in some way contribute to a possible future success. It’s like that old joke where someone brings a bomb on board a plane because the odds of there being two bombs on a plane are astronomical.

If you spend 30 IPC’s on tech you have 6 seperate 1 in 6 chances to aquire a tech.

BTW: if you want to calculate what the odds are that you will roll any given number on a d6 with a certain number of rolls use the following equation: 1-(5/6)x (where x=the number of dice rolled).

Therefore if you rolled 6d6 the odds of attaining a result of 6 is 66.5% (however this is largely meaningless as the results of getting any other result is also 66.5%).

@allweneedislove:

Paratroopers – the bestest and super most fun idea. but the worst of the 12 techs. Can someone actually find a way to take advantage of this rule laden technology? Here are the steps

1 you must control a territory within 3 spaces of your target
2 you must have or build an airbase
3 you must get 2infantry to that airbase
4 you must position other non paratrooper land units to also get to your target

There is no power that can take advantage of this technology.

In my first game, I took UK with Germany and their paratroopers on G2.

I kind of agree that Technology Development can be a bad investment.  Especially early on in the game.  It’s hard to risk IPCs on a maybe chance of getting the tech you want when they could be better spent on units for an attack or defense.  Then you leave yourself open to an opponent’s attack, even if you did get the tech you wanted.  In most games I’ve played, usually the only time a nation tries for a tech breakthrough is when they are pretty much already winning anyway (like if Germany controls Europe and has taken Russia out, or if the USA and UK have smashed Germany and Italy and everyone is turning on Japan).
I also don’t like the randomness of it.  It really sucks if you need Heavy Bombers for a big air attack and end up getting Super Subs or Radar.  I like the Revised version better where you direct your research.  It’s still pretty much the same chance but at least you are trying for the research you want and don’t end up with one that is useless to you.  I also use the research tokens from the Anniversary game.  That was a fantastic idea I think.
One thing I DON’T like is the way they have changed Heavy Bombers.  You use 2 dice but only get to pick one of them?  To me, that totally negates the concept of “Heavy” Bombers.  A Heavy bomber carries a bigger bomb load and therefore can get more hits in combat or cause more damage to facilities.  You still have the chance of rolling a 5 or 6 with one or even both dice, (which could represent faulty bombsights, dud bombs, bad directing, etc.) but you still should be able to count BOTH dice.  Heck, on my most recent game, I had an attack with 2 heavy bombers and 1 fighter supported TAC bomber (5 dice) and ended up rolling just 1 hit out of all of that.  So, even heavy bombers aren’t a sure thing.  Plus, they are still vulnerable to AA fire and interceptors and still only take 1 hit to down.  In my games, we will always count BOTH dice for heavy bombers.

knp I’m with you on the heavy bomber complaint.  There were so many whiners who called it overpowered that they castrated them, and here we are.  :|

@gamerman01:

knp I’m with you on the heavy bomber complaint.  There were so many whiners who called it overpowered that they castrated them, and here we are.  :|

They should change the name to “precision bombers”

@calvinhobbesliker:

@gamerman01:

knp I’m with you on the heavy bomber complaint.  There were so many whiners who called it overpowered that they castrated them, and here we are.  :|

They should change the name to “precision bombers”

Agreed!!

@gamerman01:

knp I’m with you on the heavy bomber complaint.  There were so many whiners who called it overpowered that they castrated them, and here we are.  :|

Er, that was a little ambiguous.

They castrated the heavy bombers, not the whiners, although some may wish they had castrated the whiners (then they could whine with higher voices, though).  :roll:

@allweneedislove:

the most cost effective way to acquire tech is by rolling only one die a turn as not to waste two or more rolls of a 6 in the same turn.

if you roll for one tech a turn the average cost to acquire a tech is 30ipc which is 6 rolls at 5ipc each. if you roll more dice per turn the average goes up.

Got any numbers or fomula to back this up at all? What exactly do you mean “most cost effective way?” Do you mean that this leaves you with some IPC’s left over for purchasing? If so I tend to agree. If you are only interested in aquiring a single tech then spending 5 IPC’s per turn is a good way to ensure that you don’t spend more than you have to, but it doesn’t change the odds at all if you spend all 30 IPC’s at once (it just means you might get some additional techs).

@allweneedislove:

you can figure out the average cost to acquire tech if you always roll 6 dice per turn. i am not that good at math so i can not give you the formula, however i estimate it to cost an average of 43ipc. maybe math teacher gamerman can help me by posting the formula.

I’m not really sure of what you’re talking about here. If you always roll 6 dice per turn (unlikely) then you will spend 30 IPC’s each turn and you will have a 67% chance to develop a tech each turn. I’m not sure where 43 IPC’s came from.

@allweneedislove:

assuming you only roll 1 die at a cost of 5ipc per die roll then the average number of rolls to acquire a tech is 6. 5ipc * 6rolls = 30ipc = average cost to acquire tech.

This is not how averages are calculated. The question is largely meaningless. If you really wanted to calculate the average cost then you’d have to record every game of Axis and Allied played and find out how many IPC’s were spent to aquire tech by the multitude of players. Then you’d have to add those numbers all together and divide by the total number of players.

You’re just making up some arbitrary fomula that sort of seems that it should fit and calling it the average cost. Then your claiming that your average cost cannot be disputed and building an entire thread around it.

@Holden:

If you are only interested in aquiring a single tech then spending 5 IPC’s per turn is a good way to ensure that you don’t spend more than you have to, but it doesn’t change the odds at all if you spend all 30 IPC’s at once (it just means you might get some additional techs).

Er, this isn’t Classic.  Limit one breakthrough per turn.  That’s why buy a single die is the most “cost effective”.  It avoids waste.

Ok… I have more to do than read every post on these forums but as far as I’ve been, allweneed is totally correct. The average cost to get a technology if you buy a number x of die every turn is given by the relation (cost by turn)/(probability to get a tech) where the probability is expressed by a number between 0 and 1. In mathematical terms, we have costaverage = 5*x/(1-(5/6)x).

-Buying 1 die a turn gives an average of 5*1/(1-(5/6)1) = 30 IPCs.

-Buying 2 dice a turn gives an average of 5*2/(1-(5/6)2) = 32.7 IPCs.

-Buying 6 dice a turn gives an average of 5*6/(1-(5/6)6) = 45.1 IPCs.

@Holden:

@allweneedislove:

assuming you only roll 1 die at a cost of 5ipc per die roll then the average number of rolls to acquire a tech is 6. 5ipc * 6rolls = 30ipc = average cost to acquire tech.

This is not how averages are calculated. The question is largely meaningless. If you really wanted to calculate the average cost then you’d have to record every game of Axis and Allied played and find out how many IPC’s were spent to aquire tech by the multitude of players. Then you’d have to add those numbers all together and divide by the total number of players.

You’re just making up some arbitrary fomula that sort of seems that it should fit and calling it the average cost. Then your claiming that your average cost cannot be disputed and building an entire thread around it.

No, allweneed is right. Holden, your method doesn’t work in theory unless you try it an infinite number of times. Good luck… :wink:

In conclusion, yes, techs really suck in this game…  :-(

Fine, San Chillos, but work on this:

Obviously if you took a million rolls (1 per turn), you would be paying right around 30 IPC’s per tech.

But if I roll 1 die a turn, on average how many turns until I hit my first breakthrough?  Is it (1+6)/2 = 3.5?  Or is the 6th round average?  I could figure this out, but too tired and lazy right now, and it looks like you could handle it.

The number of turns you need on average with x die each turn is given by 1/(probability to get a tech each turn). So, it is n_turnsaverage = 1/(1-(5/6)x).

So, with 1 die every turn, on average, you will get a tech every 6 turns.

@San:

The number of turns you need on average with x die each turn is given by 1/(probability to get a tech each turn). So, it is n_turnsaverage = 1/(1-(5/6)x).

So, with 1 die every turn, on average, you will get a tech every 6 turns.

I know that 6 is the average number of turns that you would get a given result (in this case, a “6”).

But if you take a set of 6 rolls and assume that one is a hit (a “6”) wouldn’t that hit, on average, be in the middle of the 6 rolls?  Wouldn’t the average (expected, if you will) first hit of a 6 (a breakthrough) come between attempt #3 and attempt #4?

I worked about 12 hours today and it’s time for bed.  When I’m not fatigued, I could probably figure this out, but do you understand my question?

If I roll a die per turn, on average when would I hit my first 6?  Are you saying on the 6th attempt?  Because I’m not sure that’s right (but without crunching the numbers or using formulas).  I’m thinking I could expect on average to hit it sooner.

Put another way - after rolling a die 3 times, would I not have a 50/50 chance of hitting a tech by that point?  Isn’t that when I would hit my first tech, on average, after 3 rolls?  Above average luck - hitting on roll 1, 2, and or 3, and below average luck, hitting on turn 4 or later?

@gamerman01:

I know that 6 is the average number of turns that you would get a given result (in this case, a “6”). But if you take a set of 6 rolls and assume that one is a hit (a “6”) wouldn’t that hit, on average, be in the middle of the 6 rolls?  Wouldn’t the average (expected, if you will) first hit of a 6 (a breakthrough) come between attempt #3 and attempt #4?

Average simply means that you should expect to need 6 turns to get a tech if you buy one die every turn i.e, you will get it on your 6th turn with absolute average luck. If it was to hit in the middle of the 6 rolls, the average would be 3.5. However, it’s interesting to note that the probability to hit with the first die (1/6 = 16.7%) is higher than with any other die simply because the probability to need a specific die decreases with the number of dice rolled before it. You only have a probability of (1/6)*(5/6)5 = 6.7% to hit on your 6th turn in fact. However, you have more chances to need at least 10 rolls (you need to miss (5 chances out of 6) on your 9 first rolls (exponent 9) -> (5/6)9 = 19.4% probability) than to hit on your first roll. So, yes, 6 is the average but you should not rely too much on “average luck” simply because the probability to get a very different result (better or worse) is relatively high. (In probability theory, this is related to the variance if you’re interested…)