“Bombing still gets a good rate of return for Germany, dont give me that childisih sh*t that a bomber does 3.5 a run, and losing a fighter escort is like losing your first born child.”
I am not above strategic bombing. Just let me know what part of the math I have wrong.
I believe:
A bomber survives an AA attack of 1 five out of six times.
The average roll or a D6 is 3.5 (1,2,3,4,5,&6 are the possible outcomes. Each is as likely as another. Figuring out the odds of any number coming up in craps which uses two die is more interesting)
Over six turns the bomber does an average of 5 x 3.5 damage. That is 17.5 IPCs of damage for a 12 IPC loss.
Throw in “X” number of fighters in defense and the math changes. A fighter rolling at 2 gets a kill 1/3 of the time. If you have 2 escort fighters for every 1 defending fighter that evens out.
Germany IS in a position to do damage to the UK. Strategic bombing with the damage it causes is really interesting because repairing the damage can be put off. The damage also caps at 20 (my rule book is away from me so let me know if I’m wrong!) so using more than 3 bombers changes the math since some of the permutations that cause more than 20 damage get discounted. That formula I need to look up.
Gimme 3 bombers sitting idly and no fighter defense or 2 to 1 escort odds and either Russia or the UK is likely to get bombed by me though!