@Bunnies:
I’d say that if the Germans build a German bomber after the UK/US have already committed to KGF, that’s fine and appropriate. But until then, I do not see a need for a German bomber. So why build one, considering that every bomber means 4 less early infantry pressing on Moscow? UK1/US1 landing in Libya (in Africa) should already be easily covered by German fighters / bomber in Western Europe with German subs in the Atlantic.
I think that if you see an Allied fleet build coming, then you can counter with the necessary number of bombers.
If you buy no bomber, then that means UK may be able to build SZ2 or SZ8 UK1. Consider the odds Hobbes posted on SZ2
Germany: 1 ftr, 2 bmrs, 2 subs
Allies: 2 ftrs, 2 DDs, 1 AC, 1 sub
33.1% win, 66.9% loss
Germany: 2 ftrs, 2 bmrs, 2 subs
Allies: 2 ftrs, 2 DDs, 1 AC, 1 sub
68.5% win, 31.5% loss
So if all you got is 2 figs 1 bmb 2 ss (an optimistic scenario) then your odds are only a tad better than 33%. If I’m UK, I’m happy to take that bet……even if I lose I’ll take u-boats and planes down with me. But with the extra bomber, G’s odds jump to 69%. A large part of why I prefer 2 bombers is for security on those (common) occasions when Germany loses 1-2 more figs in SZ13 or SZ2… With the 2 bmb buy, I can be confident I’ll have 70%+ for SZ2 G2 unless I got absolutely diced G1.
Now, that’s only a 1 turn delay…is 1 turn worth missing out on the extra inf? The delay translates into IPCs for Axis. There are the costs to UK in putting its cash into ACs and dds early. There’s the 6 swing of controlling Norway (ie you will control it through G3, if not longer). You also prevent a secure landing in Africa for an additional turn, which could be a significant IPC swing. Lastly, there’s the value of having extra bombers each turn for the duration of the game.
If Allies see my bomber buy and decide to play a KJF strategy, then that’s great…the odds for Axis victory have gone up! I would think a KGF response is equally as likely since Germany will be perceived as thin on the ground for the first few turns. In reality, while the Soviets might score some temporary gains because Germany is inf light, they won’t be able to follow up unless the German player continues to invest in non land units like subs or bombers. Germany’s mass of air power ensures Russia will get the worst of the trades over the duration.
Like Hobbes I could see myself forgetting about the bombers and going all inf/art/arm against certain R1 moves, such as a successful Nor conquest.