I’ve gamed out German Sealions by myself using a Europe only map (note the category of this thread), and despite some differences, the main contours of the game are the same.
Germany can usually grab London, but that sucks up so much German power and gives the Soviets so much time and energy to prepare that, even if Italy does incredibly well in Africa and the Middle East, they’ll have a tough time defending their existing territory against Soviet attacks (really juicing Soviet industrial production), let alone actually going after Moscow. With every German unit needed just to have a fighting chance against the Soviets, the US can easily establish control of the seas and liberate London. The Germans, even with best Italian help, just don’t have the resources to win in the east and hold their existing territory west against the large American armies. And that alone is deadly to the Axis, given how many IPCs France, the Low Countries, and Scandanavia hold.
Even though I didn’t play the following 2 games to their conclusion, I think it’s obvious that victory at this point is impossible for the Axis in both games.
