Curious….

I don’t know if there is ever a point where I think I won/lost till a capital has fallen, but I do have some goals I shoot for where I know I’m at an advantage or disadvantage:

• If the Axis combined IPC is over 70 for rd 3 and 4, the axis are in great shape. Otherwise, the weight of the combined allied economies will eventually crush you.
• If the allies can take and HOLD WE, and Russia still has Kar, Cauc, Eve, Novo, and Kaz, then an allied win is almost guarenteed.
• If the allies hold Africa and Russia isn’t threatened then that is bad news for the Axis.
• Anytime you have an IC that gets captured and held, an original one or newly placed, it is probably only a matter of time.

These are only a few things that may indicate who may win, but ultimately I feel it comes down to the economies. The quicker and longer the Axis can be over 70 IPC the better for them and there chances. And by 70, I mean Ger at about 28-30 and Jap at 40-45 or so. It does you no good if Jap is at 50+ and Ger is under 20, then the game is over.

I hope some of this help and I didn’t just ramble on.

1. SUD - i’d like to see your tech-war pitch
2. DM - i’d agree with you except for the “IC” bit for the following reasons:
   i) an Indian, S. African, or Egyptian IC may be taken by Japan or Germany (eventually) without serious consequences for the allies
   ii) Karelia IC may be taken by the Germans and held for a couple of turns, but they lose momentum if the allies take a stab at EEU or WEU

…… that was long.

But I pretty much agree with SUD. Tech is an important part of the game. When your game can last (in a standstill, with the Allies slowly winning) for 50 turns, 5 or 10 IPCs isn’t going to hurt much. If you manage to get IC or Heavy Bombers, you can break that Standstill.

My thoughts on the matter at hand…

These are not exhaustive, just some things I’ve noticed & have come to mind.

Obviously if an Axis power has fallen, odds are the Allies will win. Also if USSR falls, the Axis have a big advantage as well. But I think the original post was asking if there are any “early warning signs” the game might be in the bag…

I find if USSR is more or less intact by T4, this is a good indication the Allies will win. If the Axis haven’t taken at least 2 or 3 USSR territories by then, they probably never will…

If Japan has not taken all of China by T3, they are probably sunk, unless they have taken a lot of USSR…

If Germany or USSR ever loses all their FTRs that is baaad news for them & their allies!

I may be going out on a limb w/ these other ones but:

If Japan has no capital ships (CVs or BBs) & have not surrounded Moscow, the Axis will lose…

If UK has a BB left after T1, the Axis will lose…

If an Ally takes Eastern Europe & holds it for more than a turn, the Axis are in trouble…

And of course the classic: If the Axis meet one another in Persia or Iraq & remain in contact, the Axis will win…this one sure seems to work, but I don’t know exactly why!

Ozone27

“when axis meet in Persia, they won’t lose their inertia”

@cystic:

“when axis meet in Persia, they won’t lose their inertia”

…precisely! But why does that always seem to work? What does it mean when the Axis meet like that?

I thought of some others of a more humorous note:

1.) If Germany ever buys a capital ship (CV or BB) they are either just about to win, or just about to lose…

2.) The “Seppuku Maru” rule: if anyone ever purchases a BB, their side will lose…

3.) If Germany ever takes Great Britain, it means that all the players but you have left to go to the bar & you’d better go see what they are doing…

Ozone27

Haha. I have since become an expert tech-er. It should be learned by all players going to that final level of play. I also regarded it as a last-ditch effort, but if done carefully, it can be very potent, more potent even than taking Russia.

But…I’ve also formulated some nasty counters. Realizing the importance of tech for Japan can help balance the game, but isn’t an end-all be-all strategy.

Kobu

I agree that a technology advantage is a great help (2 IPC inf and Heavy bombers are most useful in my opinion).
:D

However, I’m not sure how one can counter tech. If Japan techs does the US also roll equallyt for tech to (hopefully) keep at the same level? Do you immediately attack Japan in Asia (or Germany in Europe) if they teched, hoping that their loss of inf., etc. by the cost of teching will set them back beyond repair before they can utilize the advantage they gain?

Any thoughts?

@Anonymous:

I agree that a technology advantage is a great help (2 IPC inf and Heavy bombers are most useful in my opinion).
:D

However, I’m not sure how one can counter tech. If Japan techs does the US also roll equallyt for tech to (hopefully) keep at the same level? Do you immediately attack Japan in Asia (or Germany in Europe) if they teched, hoping that their loss of inf., etc. by the cost of teching will set them back beyond repair before they can utilize the advantage they gain?

Any thoughts?

It all depends on what the tech is, & when it appears in the game (and for whom)…

I’ve seen people get a totally cool technology & be unable to bring it to affect the game. I’ve also seen people get the exact tech they need right at a critical time & have it totally win the game for them. It all depends. All I can give are some examples that spring to mind…

There was one game where Japan trounced the entire USA fleet by T2 and had won absolute mastery of the Pacific. Then USA won “Long-range Aircraft” with a single roll. Using the aircraft, a few SUBs and a flotilla of TRs, he had mopped up the floor with Japan’s fleet and was seizing islands within a few turns–having purchased NO capital ships whatsoever. With LRA, he didn’t need carriers to move the aircraft and went on to dominate the Pacific…

There was another game where the Axis were doing well & were within a turn or 2 from Economic Victory. Trouble was pesky Allied forces kept siezing territories just to prevent the win so the game was temporarily stalled. Then USA got “Heavy Bombers”. It transformed the game–now it was a desperate race for the Axis to win before enough BMRs could be built to make a difference. No one was playing conservative, it was all-out attacks on all sides! The Axis eventually won, but Heavy Bombers had really livened up what would’ve been an otherwise tedious “land-trading” excercise…

Then there was another game where Germany was losing badly in Europe, went for broke & won “Industrial Tech”. Unfortunately this only had the effect of prolonging what would’ve been a very short game. Germany didn’t have enough IPCs to make Industrial tech count, so they were limited to just hoarding INF and staving off the inevitable…

Those are the ones that spring to mind. Seems the only sure way to beat tech is to win before the opponent can make use of it…

Ozone27