After Axis capture Gibraltar, Allies can’t suicide attack Germany fleet since there’s no place to land. Even if there is, there’s that much left attacking/defending Europe. So concentrate too much in Africa, you’ll lose Russia. Concentrate too much in Europe, you’ll lose Africa.
If UK tran the 2 Inf from India on Turn 1, they gave up India without a fight. Japan will move her entire fleet south (1 Tran from Philippine to India, the other Tran from Japan to IndoChina). Turn 2, India->South Africa, IndoChina->Egypt/Iraq/E Africa. Also, Jap will now push Rus from the south via India->Siakang instead of Kakut->E Russia.
If UK/US land in Algeria Turn 1, those 2 Trans are sitting duck. Grant, UK/US now have 2 Inf & 1 Arm in W Africa (probability is only 60% of Armor surviving against Ger Inf). If US buy 2 Trans to transport 4 Inf or 2 Inf & 1 Armor to Africa on Turn 2, those 2 Trans will then be sitting duck. Kiss Normandy good-bye for another 3-5 turns. Without Allies pressure on Europe, Germany, by Turn 3, will have enough Inf to push Russia.
I’ll try Allies-heavy in Africa tonight and see how that pan out. Just have a lot of misgivings in abandonning India and sacrificing 2 Trans to land in W Africa on Turn 1.
Germany best chance for victory had always been Africa. The only question is whether to use the optimal strategy and build up in Africa before attacking or to gamble and hit Egypt/Iraq first turn. Allies best strategy is delay Africa/Asia until the conveyor belt start going.