Australia IPC's not adding up

[b]New York ‘lone wolf’ was one hour away from finishing his bomb[/b]
She also praised the New York Police Department, saying, “I think they handled it well.”
Officials with the NYPD, which conducted the undercover investigation using a confidential informant and a bugged apartment, said the department had to move quickly because Pimentel was about to test a pipe bomb made out of match heads, nails and other ingredients bought at neighborhood hardware and discount stores.
Two law enforcement officials said Monday that the NYPD’s Intelligence Division had sought to get the FBI involved at least twice as the investigation unfolded. Both times, the FBI concluded that Pimentel lacked the mental capacity to act on his own, they said.
The FBI thought Pimentel “didn’t have the predisposition or the ability to do anything on his own,” one of the officials said.
The officials were not authorized to speak about the case and spoke on condition of anonymity. The FBI’s New York office and the U.S. attorney’s office in Manhattan both declined to comment on Monday.
Pimentel’s lawyer, Joseph Zablocki, said his client was never a true threat.
“If the goal here is to be stopping terror … I’m not sure that this is where we should be spending our resources,” he said.
Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly defended the handling of the case Monday, saying the NYPD kept federal authorities in the loop “all along” before circumstances forced investigators to take swift measures using state charges.
“No question in my mind that we had to take this case down,” Kelly said. “There was an imminent threat.”
Added Kelly: “This is a classic case of what we’ve been talking about �� the lone wolf, an individual, self-radicalized. This is the needle in the haystack problem we face as a country and as a city.”
Authorities described Pimentel as an unemployed U.S. citizen and “al-Qaida sympathizer” who was born in the Dominican Republic. He had lived most of his life in Manhattan, aside from about five years in the upstate city of Schenectady, where authorities say he had an arrested for credit card fraud.
His mother said he was raised Roman Catholic. But he converted to Islam in 2004 and went by the name Muhammad Yusuf, authorities said.
Using a tip from police in Albany, the NYPD had been watching Pimentel using a confidential informant for the past year. Investigators learned that he was energized and motivated to carry out his plan by the Sept. 30 killing of al-Qaida’s U.S.-born cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, police said.
Pimentel was under constant surveillance as he shopped for the pipe bombmaterials. He also was overheard talking about attacking police patrol cars and postal facilities, killing soldiers returning home from abroad andbombing a police station in Bayonne, N.J., authorizes said.

40 IPC’s. I do it every time I play Japan. I take the PI and all the DEI, Malaya, Borneo & Hong Kong. These = 21 IPC which puts Japan @ 40 IPC’s. If all goes well I do not lose too much units due to Japans 1st round attack advantage. (All Allied units, except the Chinese, defend at 1 on the dice) Tonight I won by VP’s, holding over 40 (I topped out @ 45) for 6 rounds. USA had sunk Japans navy on T5 after I slammed into AUS capital after building up INF & ART for a couple rounds and lost that battle. I pretty much had expanded all my forward units and had started reinforcing the India campaign. By the time the USA started to xport land units it was too late. It was great game w/ a few navel battles that cost both sides alot of hardware! Great fun! My boys are grumbling by being beat by the “ol Man” again.  :-D

Those rules make yours a completely different game.  So, I don’t really have much to add from a strategy perspective.  It’s not really AAPacific at all.  It is simply an A&A-type game played on the AAPacific map.  Sounds like fun, though.

SS

Kill India Only - The Tordenskjold Maneuver

May god have mercy upon my enemies, because I won’t.

There is only one tactical principle which is not subject to change.  It is to use the means at hand to inflict the maximum amount of wound, death and destruction on the enemy in the minimum amount of time.

Go forward until the last round is fired and the last drop of gas is expended…then go forward on foot!

General George Patton Jr.

It is perhaps slightly anacronistic to start an essay about a game based on the Pacific theatre of World War II with quotes from a General who fought only in the European theatre of that war.  However, the points Patton makes in these quotes capture the essence of the strategy I will discuss in this essay.  The Kill India Only tactic is not for the faint of heart and the central premise of KIO is the desperate, merciless advance of which Patton was one of the most famous advocates.

I will not claim to have invented the KIO.  As far as I know, the first player to use this attack in a club game was Tordenskjold, an excellent player and member of Days of Infamy.  The attack was also independently developed by AndrewAAGamer, used by Simone Molinaro and revised slightly by yours truly.  It is also the subject of a long strategy discussion in the Days of Infamy Bullpen that can still be reviewed here:  http://www.rjware.net/DOI/bullpenarchive/t420.html

While many have contributed to the discussions and strategies behind the KIO, it was Tordenskjold who first implemented this strategy and for that reason I sometimes describe the attack as The Tordenskjold Maneuver.

As I have alluded to in previous essays, the Tordenskjold Maneuver concentrates all Japanese efforts on capturing India by J3 or J4 with no prospect of an alternate path to victory.  In VP-bid games, it was not uncommon to see a player intending to try a KIO attack bidding 99 VPs because in such a game the VPs simply do not matter.  The KIO attack, in the absence of an Allied IPC or IPC unit bid, typically has a better than even chance of success (probably about 70%-80%) and, for that reason, Days of Infamy implemented to the inverse IPC bidding system to prevent or at least discourage KIO attacks.

The Allied player will know immediately if a KIO attack is coming.  On J1, Japan buys 1 Bmr and saves 4.  This is consistent with the concept of all offence.

Similarly, the J1 attacks are all about positioning for the attack on India.  In Asia, Japan will attack Kiangsi, Kwangsi, Shan State and Yunnan.  In addition, Hongkong is sometimes hit as well.  The attacks are intended as much to kill UK and Chinese units as they are to capture territory.  Indeed, the attack into Yunnan is often air only or sometimes supported by a single infantry.  These units defend on a “2” in round 1 but cutting down the defenders available to counter the J3 or J4 attack on India is critical.

In the western Pacific, Japan attacks Malaya, sz46, takes sz47 with 1 DD, 1 AC, 2 Trns and a BB, attacks sz43 with 2 ftrs, kills the UK trn in sz54 with the FIC Bmr and hits sz38 and Philippines with everything else in range.

In the eastern Pacific, Japan will usually hit sz9 with 4 Ftrs and 1 sub and take Midway with 1 Infantry and 2 Ftrs.Â

In summary, the J1 attacks are approximately as follows:

Kiangsi - 4 Inf, 1 Arm vs 1 Inf
Kwangsi - 3 Inf, 1 Rtl vs 1 Inf
Yunnan - 2 Ftrs, 1 Bmr vs 2 Inf
Shan State - 2 Inf, 2 Rtl, 1 Bmr vs 1 inf
sz54 - 1 Bmr vs 1 Trn
sz46 - 3 Ftrs, 1 Trn (loaded with 1 Inf, 1 Rtl) vs 1 DD, 1 BB
sz47 - 2 Trns, 1 DD (loaded with 4 Inf, 1 Rtl), 1 BB, 1 AC - walk in
Malaya - 5 Inf, 2 Rtl vs 3 Inf, 1 Ftr
sz43 - 2 Ftrs vs. 1 Trn, 1 DD
sz38 - 3 DDs, 4 Trns (loaded with 10 Inf, 1 Rtl), 1 BB, 2 Ftrs, 1 Sub vs. 1 Trn, 1 Sub, 1 DD
Philippines - 10 Inf, 1 Rtl vs. 2 Inf, 1 Ftr
Midway - 1 Inf, 2 Ftrs vs. 1 Inf, 1 Ftr
sz9 - 4 Ftrs, 1 Sub vs. 2 BB, 1 DD, 1 Trn

At the end of J1, Japan should have captured all the territories it was trying to capture and killed all the units it attacked.  The points of vulnerability for Japan are primarily sz38 and sz54.  If Japan fails to kill the sz38 sub or the sz54 transport then the KIO is almost certainly doomed.Â

After J1 NCM, Japan should have strong forces in sz47 and 38 and blocking subs in sz33 and 34 to prevent the UK sub from substalling into sz38.  The Japanese carriers have moved to sz36 from Midway and the BB from sz36 has moved to sz46 to protect the transports there while a DD moves to sz45 to escort 2 transports in that sea zone.

[Where it is permitted by board posting rules, I have attached a mapview map file of a KIO game that played out right to US4 so you can better see the map position at each stage.]

On Allies 1, the UK has no alternative but to buy 2 subs in order to prevent a strong J3 attack on India.  The one UK sub in sz54 must move to sz53 and the UK BB from sz50 must move to sz52 to prevent Japan from attacking the subs in sz54 on J2.  They can then be used for substalling the Japanese attack until J4.

The rest of the Allied counter to a KIO is open for debate.  Some players try to play straight anti-crush (see Essay #2).  Others will prepare for a Japan invasion on US4.  Either might work but probably has less than a 50% chance of success.

On J2, Japan kills the units in sz52 and 53, the UK AC in sz49 and captures Burma, which will almost always be vacated by UK.  On NCM, all units that can reach Shan State by land or sea are placed there with the remaining units moved to Malaya by transport where they can be loaded and moved to India or Burma on J3.  The Japanese subs and stray fleet units in the Eastern Pacific continue to play a blocking game with the Allied fleet.  The key here is to prevent the UK from capturing Philippines on Allies 2.  After that, the Allies will be too late to do anything usefull.  In Japan, ground units are purchased to repel an Allied invasion.  Nothing else can get to India by the decisive battle and all you need to do in Japan is hold on for the win.

At the end of J2, Japan should have an unbeatable ground force in Shan State and a large fleet with plenty of ground units in sz47.

On Allies 2, the UK substalls into sz53 and 52 to prevent any of the units from sz47 getting through to India on J3.  This delays the attack until J4.  The rest of the Allied fleet moves forward as fast as it can.  If Japan is the target, they have to be in position to attack Japan by Allies 4.  If anti-crush is the objective, everything that can reach India must be in place at the end of Allies 2 to fly to India on Allies 3.

On J3, the Allies capture Burma once and for all, kill the subs in sz52 and 53 and move all of the land units from sz47 to Burma on NCM.  If there are bombers not needed for other tasks, they should SBR India as well to cut down the number of defenders on J4.Â

At the end of J3, Japan should have up to 16 Inf, 7 Rtl, 2 Arm and some fighters and bombers in Burma ready for the attack on India.  The Allies will simply not have enough units to repel the attack.  The Japanese player will sometimes keep a single ground unit on a transport in sz54, so that this unit can conduct an amphibious assualt and allow all avaialable DDs and BBs to provide a support shot in the J4 battle.  In any case, the outcome is likely not in doubt.Â

Further, if Japan has positioned some of its fighters in Shan State or FIC at the end of J2, these fighters can either fly to Japan to defend against an Allied invasion or be used in the attack on India on J4, depending on where they are needed.

On Allies 4, after India has falled, the Allies are often left with no more than a desperation attack on the Japanese homeland.  Odds are rarely better than 20% of a successful capture and Japan wins the game at the start of its next turn.

The KIO is a clear example of an attack that does not divert any effort to anything other than the main objective, capture India.  Blocking units are only used to slow the Allied advance and no ground units are diverted to capture non-essential islands.  In war, this is undoubtedly good strategy but in a game, like AAPacific, this tactic has a tendency to ruin the game because it allows the Japanese player to follow a series of rote moves with no real opportunity for the Allied player to effectively counter the attack.  That was the main reason why Days of Infamy decided to implement the inverse IPC bid.  The additional ground forces in India reduce the odds of a successful KIO to a point where the game is balanced again.

Saburo Sakai

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Posted to main website.

A defensive war is apt to betray us into too frequent detachment. Those generals who have had but little experience attempt to protect every point, while those who are better acquainted with their profession, having only the capital object in view, guard against a decisive blow, and acquiesce in small misfortunes to avoid greater.

Frederick the Great

The Most Important Territories and Sea Zones for AAPacific Victory

In any battle, there are only a few key points that must be protected or that must be attacked.  Likewise, in AAPacific, there are certain territories and sea zones that are the keys to victory or defeat.  This essay will discuss some, but not necessarily all, of the key sea zones and territories.

Key Territories

French Indo-China/Yunnan

With the possible exception of the capital territories (whose capture will result in the end of the game), FIC and Yunnan are the most important territories to both Japan and the Allies.  This is where the Allies and Japan will face each other toe to toe in the hopes of dislodging the other.  If Japan is able to take and hold Yunnan, it has effectively split the the Allied forces in two.  Chinese infantry mobilizing in Szechwan cannot hook up with Indian ground units moving forward through Burma while Japan is able to feed reinforcements into Yunnan through FIC or push its ground forces into Burma for an attack on India.  Fighters based in Yunnan will be able to reach India to support any attack.  Therefore, if Japan is able to take and hold Yunnan, the Allied position is greatly weakened.

Conversely, once the Allies are able to capture FIC, the Japanese position in Asia is often untenable, not to mention that it is likely no longer possible for Japan to collect 40 IPCs and the 4 VPs that go along with it.  US bombers based in FIC can reach sz36 to kill any newly launched Japanese surface vessels and are in position to join an attack on the main Japanese Fleet wherever it is situated in the Pacific.  If the Allies continue to push units forward and are able to bring US bombers to bear, Japan will eventually be dislodged from FIC.  The key for Japanese victory is to hold FIC until at least J4.  By doing so, Japan is well on its way to a VP victory.  If Japan can hold FIC until J5, victory is almost assured, whereas if Japan loses FIC after J3, a VP win will be a challenge.

Philippines

The Philippines is undoubtedly the single most important island in AAPacific.  Japan must take it on J1 and must prevent its recapture by the Allies for as long as possible.  If Japan fails to take Philippines on J1, the US is able to build an IC there and the Philippines will then act either as an SBR base for attacking Japan (if it is not retaken by Japan on a subsequent turn) or it will be an SBR target from New Britain once that is captured by the Allies on Allies 3 or 4.  In either case, Japan will not be able to win a VP game if it does not take Philippines on J1.

Similarly, Philippines is key to success throughout the game.  Due to its central location in the Pacific, the Philippines harbor is not particularly important but its airbase is critical.  Fighters and bombers based in the Philippines can reach every sea zone that matters and can reach the key territories of Yunnan and FIC.  From the Philippines and sz38, Japan is able to hold the territories and sea zones it needs to ensure a steady flow of VPs until late in the game.  If the Allies are able to push Japan out of the Philippines, Japan had better hope that it is only 1 VP away from victory or the game is surely lost.

The East Pacific Ports

These are Caroline Islands, New Britain and Papua.  They are important because they are three sea zones from Hawaii and if they are held by the Allies, US naval reinforcements can move forward quickly and can usually be in position to hit the IJN one turn after they are built.  If Japan keep the Allies from using these ports any naval units built in Hawaii will take 2 turns to be in position to attack the IJN in sz38.  This one turn delay is often the key to victory.  The Allies will be best served to have captured at least one of the East Pacific Ports by no later than Allies 3.  Failure to do so will likely mean that US reinforcements will not be able to move forward fast enough to prevent a Japanese VP victory.  Likewise, Japan cannot afford to let those ports stay in Allied hands on A2.  If the Allied fleet is able to move that far forward on A2, Japan is in grave danger.

Papua is doubly significant for the Allies because land units there can move forward and take DNG with the likelihood that Japan will not be able to get to 4 VPs on the next Japanese turn.

The SBR bases

Often, the only way for the Allies to prevent a Japanese VP victory is to set up an SBR attack by no later then J6 or J7.  Each of Shantung, Manchuria, Korea, Bonin Is, Ryukyo Island, Philippines and Mariana Is are in range of Japan for the purpose of an SBR attack.  Many of these are unlikely to be captured until much later in the game but it is feasible to attempt a capture of Mariana Islands as early as Allies 3.  If the Allies are able to take and hold Marianas as early as that, a VP victory is almost out of the question for Japan unless the AA guns and SBR defenders are especially effective (in other words, you have to get lucky).  Therefore, Japan should do all it can to prevent the Allies from taking and holding Mariana Islands.  This means using available Kamikazes to kill Allied transports and placing units in such a position that Japan will be able to at least attempt to recapture Marianas the turn after it is taken by the Allies.

Key Sea Zones

Arguments can be made that there are many key sea zones.  Certainly, sz27, 43 and 47 are important sea zones if you are attempting an India Crush.  Sz36 is critical if the Allies are attempting an invasion of Japan.  And sea zones 32 and 14 can sometimes be the scene of large battles.  In my view, however, there are two sea zones that are more important than the rest, sz28 and sz38.

Sea Zone 28

For Japan to win a VP game, it will want to hold sz28 until at least J3 and to J4 if it can.  Sea Zone 28 is the key to preventing the Allies from moving past the IJN and beginning to take away convoy routes and islands thus depriving Japan of the IPCs and VPs it needs for victory.  From sz28, Japan can attack the Allies in sz14, sz27 or sz32.  With an overwhelming presence in sz28, Japan prevents a landing in Papua or DNG and can recapture New Britain if it is taken by the Allies.  This prevents the Allies from making use of two of the three Eastern Pacific Ports that were discussed above.  The Allies usually aren’t in position to take Caroline Islands for at least one more turn, so holding sz28 delays the Allied advance into the Pacific.

Conversely, if the Allies can force an early retreat by Japan from sz28, Allied reinforcement will be able to move forward faster and Allied subs can retake convoy routes and pressure the Japanese to split up the fleet to deal with the subs.

Early in the game, sz28 is the most important sea zone.

Sea Zone 38

In the second half of the game, sz38 is key.  Japan must hold sz38 likely until J7 if it hopes to win the game.  On the other hand, if the Allies are able to destroy the IJN in sz38 or keep Japan from getting back to sz38 before J7, the game will likely go in favour of the Allies.  As discussed above regarding the Philippines, sz38 is centrally located, allowing the player who controls it to strike in any direction and control or threaten virtually all of the surrounding territories and sea zones.

These then are the key territories and sea zones you need to dominate if you are to win.  While other battles will be fought, the battles for control of these spots on the map will be the most important.

Saburo Sakai

I’m a newcomer to this site although I have been playing A&A for maybe twenty years now.  I got A&A Pacific a couple of years ago but unluckily  :-) my gaming group has always had more than three players available, so we tend to end up playing A&A revised and A&A Europe.

However, we do play Pacific now and then and we by the second Pacific session we had learned what Saburo Sakai lays out in this essay– Japan had better buy subs and India had better start stacking land forces up in anticipation of an India assault.  Couple that idea with the realization that territories such as New Britain are vital due to the Naval Base rule and you are well on your way to an enjoyable and hard fought Pacific campaign.  Cheers!!

I hear ya. The best way to play is have the host play Japan, set the board up, line up his turn then show up after he has all the battles laid out. That first round is a killer!

BB