Well, in the first place its expensive for Japan to take India, even minus a couple of units from max. The victory tends to by almost-Pyrrhic, destroying a large chunk of air force and leaving only one ground unit. If UK is already established in the Middle East, with MICs in Egypt, South Africa, and possibly Persia pumping out units, Japan has a large logistical issue dealing with the output of two or three “closer” MICs while holding off the Allies in the Pacific and trying to hold onto the money islands and valuable coastal territories. Japan is trying to defend itself and build an advantage to let it push farther into the Middle East.
I’ve seen this in play and been on both sides of it – it’s like hiking uphill through mud when running Japan. Even if you try to bypass the Middle East with naval assets, you find yourself facing an equal or superior navy and air force because you’ve had to split your forces to hold off the US and ANZAC or you find your income evaporating as you hold India but find your hold on coastal China and the money islands (and your income) evaporating. Big ANZAC, with US support, is snatching money islands faster than you can retake them, and it’s cashing out decently even after India falls.
In short, I’ve never seen it be an issue if the UK cashes Italy out of the Med fast and secures Egypt/South Africa. The UK Med fleet can hold the split Japanese navy off and even push it back. Strat bombers and fighters from South Africa, fighters and tanks from Egypt, and infantry/tanks from Persia make it a really tough fight for Japan. And if Japan stops spending on India, it falls behind rapidly in firepower and will eventually have to give up India. Japan actually winds up parking a large chunk of its air force in India for defense because it is being outproduced and it takes so long for new Japanese units to arrive.
All ANZAC and the US have to do is not lose Sydney, Honolulu, and San Francisco for an entire turn and Japan eventually runs out of steam. Every fighter the US and ANZAC land in a victory city in defense requires Japan to spend 13 IPCs to retake it (7 for transport, 6 for troops), and Japan is already down in income. Every money island captured from Japan is a huge swing that Japan really can’t afford to recover from because it costs it the entire swing to reclaim the income, and then it has to defend it. All those Japanese transports have to be escorted because by now US, ANZAC, and UK each have one or more strat bombers roaming the Pacific, and a light escort means you never get that money back. Oh, and don’t forget the subs! A few subs, a strat bomber, and that transport never makes landfall even with a decent escort.
Marsh