@ncscswitch:
There IS a trade off for the quick UK kill. It is the Russian Front and Africa.
OK, London falls G1. Germany gets uber money for G2. Say +2 for Karelia, + 8 for UK, -2 for West Russia, +30 for UK bankroll. Net +38, so $78. )Germany can;t afford Egypt in this case because of the Gibraltar BB)
Now I am going to assume that Germany was out the Ukraine FIG, since it is a pretty common R1 open to take Ukraine.
The AVERAGE is that UK falls with Germany having 2 FIGs, 1 ARM left. They lose 1 INF, 3 FIG, 1 BOM in the battle ($48 IPC of units). So already they come out BEHIND with $10 fewer IPC’s than they need just to replace losses from the attack.
But what else?
Only 2 FIGs to use in Central Europe on G2.
Royal Navy INTACT. If Germany sends EVERYTHING after the BB off Gibraltar, they can kill it, but that means giving up Egypt and THAT means threat to Germany from Ukraine to Western and total loss of Africa for the game. If they don;t sink that BB, UK is liberated by the US, and UK has an uber-navy to which Germany has NO counter force since the Luftwaffe is GONE.
US Liberates, and takes out somemore Kreigsmarine units.
On T2, Germany is back down to being EVEN at the start of Russia’s turn, then they lose some combination of Ukraine, Belo, Karelia to Russia, Libya to UK, Norway to USA.
But here is the other kicker…
UK CAN LIBERATE ITSELF ON UK1
1 ARM from ECan, possible TWIN BB shots. 94% chance to liberate.
That means UK BUILDS on UK 2.
And that means 2 TRNs and land units.
So on UK3, UK is hitting Europe jsut as hard as they would have if London had not fallen (except for the AF units).
But their fleet is untouchable, and Rusia was able to picket and trade against the massive G2 build, and now it is a battle for Europe, same as it ever was, except that the Luftwaffe is already dead.
these calculations need to take into account other factors.
- The destroyed UK units (2 FTR, 1 BOM, 2 INF, 1 RTL 1 ARM = 50 IPC) during the invasion
- Uk can not build units until at least UK turn 2, possibly turn 3, giving Germany a huge break on Western defenses, freeing up units to hold back the russians.
- Germany now has Long Range Aircraft for the rest of the game
- The US probably doesnt land in Africa turn 1, having to take back UK, more money for GER.
- The US or UK may lose additional units retaking UK
- Germany has an intact fleet in the North Sea (most Russian players dont send their sub there, choosing instead to link up with the British Fleet for added protection from German planes. And the UK airforce is no more.
- If the UK is not able to take back England, it will collect NO MONEY turn 1!, so delayed gains in Africa for Germany are more than offset by UK loss of at least 22 potential IPC.
- Germany can send a sub to take out one UK TRN, decreasing chance of UK recapture, but risking gibralter battle.
- Germany can still maintain a presence in Africa. If they dont take Egy turn one, killing the BB instead, they can consolidate a nice force in LIB and take EGY turn 2, perhaps with BB and TRN assistance, unless UK fortifies hard, depleting India for JAP. The TRN can even consider dropping a ARM in ALG to help out, following the battle in Gibralter.
- Germany often can retake Russia first turn gains using just a few tanks and RTL, replacing lost FTR and ARM with the surplus purchased during the turn 2 build, though Germany may be forced to pull back turn 2 while they wait for the hugeTurn 2 build to reach the front lines (78 dollars… 2 ARm, 2 FTR, 16!!! infantry)
- if Germany takes out the Gibralter BB, and manages to keep the TRN (should, with 1 SS 1 BB 1 TRN vs BB, or even if not), and UK does not take back England during their turn, you might even have a German recapture of UK (1-2 TRN full of troops, amphib shot from BB, maybe a few planes versus the US troops that survive the retake, at most 1 ARM 2 INF 1 RTL (no aircraft, of course, cuz they can’t land), though Russia can choose to land some fighters in UK, severely limiting their turn 2 flexibility- They cant land in UK unless they landed first turn in Moscow. And if they do, they can only fight a battle in ARC if they want to reach UK. This also helps Germany’s 2nd turn.
- you had Germany pick a BOM as a casualty before a FTR… I wouldnt do that, and that might
affect your calculations, 3 Attack vs 4 attack.
- If Germany is even considering this move, they can put their bid in UKR, possibly detering or resisting a Russian invasion, saving their FTR and thus, improving their odds of a UK capture and possibly having 2 land units for defense against recapture (1 ARM 1 INF should beat or tie 1 ARM and 1 BB shot, may be worth sacrificing the FTR to spare the INF, if the rolls go right). Or if the bid is large enough, they can get 1 INF 1 RTL LIB, and still take out EGY. Also, with one more IPC bid, of 8, why not go TRN z5 and go hog wild on UK.
All in all, I’d rather be on the Axis side of that confrontation.
Mateo