Paint, in order for Germany to kill off any Russian fighters in that opening you’d have to get EXTREMELY lucky with the dice.
Ukraine:
3 Infantry, 1 Artillery, 2 Armor, 1 Fighter
vs
3 Infantry, 1 Artillery, 1 Armor, 1 Fighter
(note, I’m going with low end for attacker, high end defender in cases of close races for most likely results. ie 68.5% and 67.25% chances for attacker is 67.25% result)
0% Chance of killing Russian fighter on R1
Most Likely Result of 1 Round: 1 inf, 1 art, 2 Arm, 1 Fig vs 1 inf, 1 art, 1 arm, 1 fig
0% Chance of killing Russian fighter on R2, assuming most likely result of R1
Most likely result of 2 Rounds: 2 arm, 1 fig vs 1 arm, 1 fig
0% Chance of killing Russian fighter on R3, assuming most likely results of R1 and R2
Most likely result of 3 Rounds: 1 Fighter vs Nothing
So Ukraine’s pretty well locked in as pretty close to an assured survival of the Russian fighter. And if that changes, Russia can always retreat the fighter.
E. Europe:
3 Infantry, 1 Armor, 1 Fighter vs 2 Infantry, 1 Armor, 1 Fighter
R1: 1 Inf, 1 Arm, 1 Fig vs 1 Inf, 1 Arm, 1 Fig
Chance of Russian Fighter Loss: 0%
R2: 1 Arm, 1 Fig vs 1 Arm, 1 Fig
Chance of Russian Figher Loss: 0%
Given this situation it’s time to retreat. However, let’s pretend to go for a 3rd round:
R3: Fighter vs Nothing.
Chance of Russian Fighter Loss: 50%; Chance of German Fighter Loss 50%
So, as you can see, Paint, with this opening you are not really risking your Fighters as Russia at all. Not even a mild risk with an exceptioanlly large payoff if you are successful. 3/12 Fighters destroyed reducing the playing field immensely in favor of the Allies. (3rd fighter potentially destroyed is in FIC by England’s attacks.) That’s 30 IPCs the Axis don’t have on R1 to replace them. Especially if you keep up the pressure on Round 2.