• 2007 AAR League

    I think I can blame luck in this situation Paint-Brush…

    her few transports did more damage then 4 fgts, 1 bmb, 1 DD, 1 AC AND 2 SS…

    I don’t call that a 60% percent attack… Even If i had moderate to average dice… I was coming out on top with 3-4 fgts and my bomb still left.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    Exactly, Merc.  You shoulda had that battle handily.  I was just hoping to sink your entire fleet with the loss of mine, in a couple rounds of battles.

    Paint:  I normally hit targets when I have 80% or better results.  Though, the DAAK dicey has a code that says “Kill Jennifer” and I have to use 200% or better odds to not have to worry about at least having 1 man left at the end.  (And, as any mathematician/statitision will tell you, it’s impossible to have more then 100%)


  • LL turns a lot of battles into 80+% when they’re normally like 60% or so in ADS =P

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    ADS seems to take a lot of battles that should be 80% with at least 1 unit left, 70% with 5+ units left and turn them into complete losses for the attacker too (usually with a significant force of defenders left.)


  • They also tend to even out.

    Example, my current game last 2 Germany rounds.

    2 rounds ago, Germany got ripped in a naval attack that should have killed every Allied TRN in the Atlantic.  I killed 2 of 6, and lost my entire navy and AF doing it.
    Last Round, Germany did a 63% attack against massed Allied forces in Karelia… and won with 9 ARM and a FIG left.

    2 rounds, two fracks, one each way.

    Over time, things even out.

    Oh, one other thing regarding ADS and fracks…

    If you are going for the 4 turn win, the fracks, even very small fracks, are going to kill you.  If you are playin gofr the long term game (10+ rounds, the fracks lose a lot of their power, both for and against you.


  • @ncscswitch:

    Over time, things even out.

    Amen to that! :-P

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    Assuming you have time for them to even out.

    If Germany looses 100% of her armor, artillery, fighters and navy by the end of UK 2, then there is no time for the fracks to even out. :P


  • Isn’t part of strategy and playing well minimizing the fracks? Good strategy will get you further with bad dice than bad strategy will get you with good dice. IMO.

    @NoMercy:

    My 2 SS, 1 DD, 1 AC , 4 Fgts, 1 Bmb in round 2 vs the British fleet (jsut had 1 round to move and build)…
    Her 3 transports did better then my attacking force…I even lost a fgt in round 1 of that battle…

    What was the defending fleet by the way? BB, Sub, 3 TRNs? But considering all the dice rolled how far did the standard deviate? After all ones will be rolled. So will twos and threes et al. If the ones come up when rolling ARM or BB or BMR no one notices, but when they come up for TRNs it is noticed. Did you get a 4 and 3 when rolling the SSs but a 2 for the BMR? That is two hits or one hit but well within the math of what can be rolled. Â

    DiceRolling 12 6-sided dice:
    1, 3, 4, 2, 4, 5, 1, 6, 3, 4, 2, 3

    Now split that up among some normal attacks that would include twelve units. One time go from BMRs down and one time go from unsupported INF up. I’m guessing the number of hits will change.

    I personally have always had a bit of trouble with the dice, with being frustrated when they don’t come up “my way.” I have been working very hard on taking that in stride. Not only was it taking away from my fun it was taking fun from others. I don’t want to sound preachy but I really am preaching.

    The Gamer’s Serenity Prayer.
    The only sure thing about luck is it will change.
    May I be gracious when it goes bad.
    May I be gracious and grateful when it turns good.
    I will review my decision before I blame the dice.
    I will review the dice before I credit my decisions.

    I will step off my soap box with the definition of Luck I like the best, “Luck is what happens when preparedness meets oppurtunity.”

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    Frimmel, that’s nice and all, but what we’re, or at least what I am exasperated about, is when whole army’s defy the laws of probability.  Yes, out of 6d6 you would expect 1 infantry on attack to hit, 2 infantry on defense to hit.  But how often to you expect 5 or 6 hits from 2 fighters, 1 battleship, 3 transports and a carrier?  How often do you suppose a carrier, destroyer, 2 submarines, 4 fighters and a bomber all miss, save 1?

    Or how often is that lone battleship going to single handedly shoot down the entire luftwaffe and a u-boat?


  • @Jennifer:

    Or how often is that lone battleship going to single handedly shoot down the entire luftwaffe and a u-boat?

    You are exagerating if it is the battle I am thinking of…  Germany came ultra-light to SZ13:  only 2 FIGs and a SUB if my memory has not failed me.  4 FIGs and a SUB is pertty normal to provide for death of the BB in 1 round (typically), with a 33% chance that the sub will even live.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    Bah, 2 Fig, 1 SS should be plenty. :P

    4 Fig is way over kill, especially when I can use those fighters for something else…then again, *****  I  *****  Normally go with BB, Trn, Sub, Fig after the Gibraltar sub.


  • Sub and 2 fighters means you could lose sub and fighter to the battleship.  You easily risk losing TWO fighters.

    Sub and 4 fighters minimizes the loss to one sub, or perhaps, one sub and one fighter.  You COULD get hammered on luck and lose more, but it’s unlikely.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    SS + 4 FIG also means you’re short 2 FIGs elsewhere.  And if Russia killed 2 FIGs then you are basically dedicating your entire air force to kill off one lousy battleship.

    Surviving Attackers (started with 2 Fig, 1 Sub.)

    Surviving Defenders (started with 1 Bat.)

    Overall %*: A. survives: 90% D. survives: 6% No survivors:4%

    • percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.

    Attacker results:
    Probability % # units
      22% 3: 2 Fig, 1 Sub.
      45% 2: 2 Fig.
      23% 1: 1 Fig.
      10% 0: no units.
    Defender results:
    Probability % # units
      1% 2: 1 Bat.
      5% 1: 1 dBat.
      94% 0: no units.

    90% chance of success with 2 fighters and a submarine.  That’s friggin stellar!  That’s 10% more then I like to see in an attack!

    Surviving Attackers (started with 4 Fig, 1 Sub.)

    Surviving Defenders (started with 1 Bat.)

    Overall %*: A. survives: 100% D. survives: 0% No survivors:0%

    • percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.

    Attacker results:
    Probability % # units
      28% 5: 4 Fig, 1 Sub.
      61% 4: 4 Fig.
      10% 3: 3 Fig.
      1% 2: 2 Fig.
    Defender results:
    Probability % # units
      100% 0: no units.

    Yea, so now you have 100%.  You sacrifice 2 fighters that could be used in repelling the Russian attack for 10% better chance to sink a battleship.  Sounds like a waste to me, but hey, if you want to go that route, more power too you!  I’d love to have your fighters off the Eastern Front and not attacking my Russians!  I’ll wipe the eastern half of Europe off the map before you even get a chance to recover those fighters to any usable place.  Meanwhile, now your armor and artillery is destroyed and the Americans and British are threatening heavy landings in Western Europe, tieing down more assets all because you decided to waste your firepower on massive over kill isntead of reclaiming eastern europe provinces for Germany.  All for a measely 10% extra chance of survival from a battle you’d be able to retreat from at will anyway.

    Not to mention, one you shouldnt BE in.  You shoulda gone SS, BB, TRN, FIG vs BB  Which, btw gives you thus:

    Outcomes of 10,000 battles

    Surviving Attackers (started with 1 Fig, 1 Tra, 1 Sub, 1 Bat.)

    Surviving Defenders (started with 1 Bat.)

    Overall %*: A. survives: 99% D. survives: 0% No survivors:0%

    • percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
      Attacker results:
      Probability % # units
        24% 5: 1 Fig, 1 Tra, 1 Sub, 1 Bat.
        56% 4: 1 Fig, 1 Tra, 1 Sub, 1 dBat.
        17% 3: 1 Fig, 1 Sub, 1 dBat.
        2% 2: 1 Fig, 1 dBat.
      Defender results:
      Probability % # units
        100% 0: no units.

    Again, almost 100% chance of victory, gives you the ability to use your fighters more productively and positions your fleet in such a way to secure Africa from Allied invasion on G2.  Also, if you bring an infantryman, you can prevent any serious counter attack by England’s air farce.  Win/Win/Win for Germany.  (And before you ask, put your bid in N. Africa to take out Egypt and kill off the DD with a fighter, or ignore it.  It’s one lousy DD and if England goes BMB, DD vs BB, SS, TRN you’re going to win.)


  • Give up on your pipe dream of Russia killing 2 FIGs.

    You CAN do it, but the cost is prohibitive.

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