I went when I was really young. I think I mainly visited resorts and amusement parks.
DAAK
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Sure it does. Given fair dice, it will happen once every 3657.26 times you give it a chance to happen. Which isn’t a very large number. In fact, given a string of single die rolls, the number of times you have roll it in order to see 45 rolls in a row without getting a single ‘1’ is much less than that. It’s not unexpected to see at least a few bizarre “coincidence” like that in the course of any game where dice have such an effect.
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I agree, Darth. I think all future tournaments should be Low Luck or No Luck. :)
I would rather deal with a thousand fracks than play LL.
And being honest… if someone wants a LL Tournament, they can run it. The Spring Singles and Fall 2-on-2 will remain ADS so long as I am administering them.
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Rolling 1000 6-sided dice:
1, 6, 6, 3, 5, 6, 4, 6, 1, 3, 3, 1, 5, 4, 4, 1, 1, 5, 3, 2, 1, 4, 1, 2, 4, 5, 2, 6, 2, 4, 1, 3, 4, 1, 5, 2, 1, 2, 2, 1, 5, 4, 2, 3, 2, 5, 3, 2, 4, 6, 4, 5, 3, 5, 6, 1, 4, 1, 1, 5, 5, 2, 1, 2, 2, 6, 4, 2, 2, 5, 3, 6, 3, 4, 2, 4, 3, 5, 6, 6, 4, 4, 4, 1, 2, 4, 1, 5, 4, 1, 4, 2, 2, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 6, 5, 5, 2, 4, 1, 6, 5, 5, 2, 4, 4, 2, 1, 2, 6, 1, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 3, 5, 3, 4, 3, 6, 2, 6, 6, 1, 4, 5, 2, 1, 6, 2, 6, 4, 4, 3, 2, 5, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 2, 6, 2, 3, 2, 6, 5, 6, 2, 4, 1, 2, 4, 2, 5, 3, 4, 6, 2, 5, 5, 6, 2, 2, 2, 1, 6, 5, 6, 4, 5, 1, 3, 6, 4, 5, 5, 2, 4, 1, 6, 5, 2, 4, 1, 1, 6, 4, 6, 2, 3, 5, 1, 4, 1, 3, 4, 6, 1, 4, 3, 5, 4, 6, 5, 2, 4, 4, 3, 2, 4, 3, 1, 6, 6, 1, 1, 5, 5, 6, 1, 1, 5, 1, 5, 5, 4, 2, 4, 4, 6, 1, 3, 3, 6, 1, 4, 3, 4, 1, 5, 2, 3, 5, 2, 3, 6, 2, 2, 5, 2, 2, 5, 6, 3, 3, 5, 6, 5, 2, 3, 4, 3, 6, 1, 2, 1, 5, 5, 4, 6, 4, 6, 2, 2, 1, 5, 2, 3, 6, 6, 4, 1, 5, 3, 3, 1, 1, 2, 6, 3, 5, 3, 6, 5, 4, 1, 5, 2, 6, 3, 2, 3, 2, 3, 5, 3, 2, 1, 5, 1, 6, 3, 1, 4, 5, 3, 5, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3, 6, 2, 1, 4, 3, 6, 6, 3, 2, 1, 5, 3, 4, 4, 6, 5, 4, 5, 5, 3, 1, 5, 1, 6, 2, 5, 6, 6, 2, 2, 3, 2, 4, 4, 6, 1, 3, 5, 3, 5, 5, 2, 2, 3, 5, 1, 1, 3, 5, 5, 6, 5, 4, 6, 4, 6, 5, 3, 5, 1, 5, 2, 3, 3, 6, 2, 3, 3, 6, 6, 1, 5, 1, 2, 1, 6, 2, 1, 2, 1, 6, 1, 6, 4, 1, 4, 3, 6, 6, 2, 6, 5, 4, 2, 1, 3, 3, 4, 5, 3, 3, 6, 1, 3, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 3, 3, 5, 3, 6, 6, 6, 3, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4, 2, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 3, 6, 5, 2, 1, 1, 3, 2, 4, 5, 5, 2, 2, 1, 6, 4, 1, 6, 3, 4, 5, 2, 2, 3, 6, 3, 3, 4, 1, 6, 6, 4, 5, 4, 5, 5, 5, 1, 1, 2, 6, 5, 3, 1, 6, 3, 5, 1, 2, 1, 4, 1, 3, 5, 3, 2, 1, 6, 6, 2, 5, 5, 5, 4, 2, 4, 3, 6, 4, 3, 1, 3, 2, 4, 4, 2, 6, 2, 2, 2, 3, 5, 2, 6, 3, 5, 1, 4, 4, 6, 6, 3, 5, 4, 6, 6, 1, 2, 5, 5, 5, 6, 2, 6, 3, 5, 2, 3, 1, 3, 4, 4, 1, 6, 3, 4, 5, 4, 1, 3, 4, 6, 5, 2, 4, 5, 1, 4, 1, 6, 2, 5, 5, 4, 5, 2, 2, 6, 4, 3, 2, 2, 1, 3, 2, 4, 6, 6, 2, 6, 2, 5, 6, 1, 1, 3, 5, 2, 1, 5, 2, 2, 4, 1, 5, 2, 2, 1, 2, 6, 4, 3, 1, 5, 6, 3, 2, 5, 2, 4, 5, 4, 3, 4, 4, 3, 6, 3, 5, 6, 2, 6, 2, 5, 6, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 1, 6, 5, 2, 4, 4, 4, 6, 3, 5, 3, 1, 3, 5, 4, 6, 2, 4, 3, 6, 4, 4, 6, 6, 2, 5, 1, 3, 6, 2, 4, 1, 2, 3, 3, 5, 1, 6, 5, 3, 5, 1, 3, 1, 6, 6, 1, 1, 4, 3, 1, 2, 6, 6, 1, 2, 5, 1, 4, 5, 3, 2, 5, 4, 5, 1, 3, 5, 1, 1, 1, 5, 2, 4, 6, 2, 4, 6, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 1, 3, 1, 5, 6, 3, 4, 3, 1, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 1, 5, 2, 4, 4, 3, 1, 4, 5, 2, 6, 1, 4, 1, 3, 6, 4, 4, 3, 5, 3, 2, 1, 6, 5, 2, 5, 4, 2, 4, 4, 2, 2, 5, 6, 6, 1, 1, 3, 6, 2, 2, 6, 6, 3, 3, 5, 6, 1, 2, 5, 3, 3, 5, 3, 2, 1, 1, 5, 2, 5, 2, 4, 6, 6, 3, 6, 1, 3, 2, 6, 5, 4, 6, 4, 6, 3, 3, 6, 3, 4, 4, 5, 1, 3, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 5, 6, 2, 2, 6, 2, 5, 5, 3, 2, 6, 3, 6, 3, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 2, 1, 2, 5, 5, 2, 1, 6, 4, 4, 1, 4, 2, 1, 6, 4, 6, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 6, 3, 1, 2, 6, 4, 5, 4, 5, 6, 6, 4, 4, 2, 4, 4, 5, 1, 5, 3, 3, 5, 2, 1, 5, 3, 3, 3, 1, 6, 1, 6, 3, 1, 1, 2, 4, 6, 5, 3, 5, 5, 6, 3, 6, 3, 1, 5, 4, 5, 1, 1, 4, 3, 1, 2, 6, 4, 4, 6, 3, 4, 6, 5, 5, 6, 6, 3, 6, 5, 5, 5, 3, 5, 2, 3, 2, 2, 2, 5, 1, 3, 6, 5, 5, 1, 1, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 2, 3, 6, 1, 3, 6, 4, 3, 4, 3, 1, 1, 1, 3, 4, 2 -
I call Shennanigans!!!
There are too many 1’s in a row!
LOL!
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I’m starting to think Low Luck is the way to go :-D I certainly use it to test strategies against myself to see what you can expect.
But there is something to say about ADS. I got into the game partially because of the luck aspect. It is akin to gambling. You play poker because there is a chance element involved, but a lot of skill as well. A&A is not chess, where the results are rigorously dependent on your previous moves, and low luck starts to go down that road. The dice fracks and calculating for them takes a lot of balls to deal with, which is what makes it exciting to me.
Personally, I don’t care much about dice fracks one way or another. I will make apparent remarks like :-o look at those dice and stuff, but I take bad dice in stride. Suck it up as a loss, and keep going. Look at the overall picture - the dice should come out as you expect in the long run. Those who win in the long run have the better strategy. Those who use Low Luck take the shortcut to that destination, but it’s not as exciting.
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thank you Trihero,
I will never play a LL game as long as I live. You are correct if you want to test strategies on yourself or something.
But for gameplay…definetly more execiting to have random dice… sometimes them dice just make your hands sweat before you click that submit button… trust me.
makes it very execiting. :-D
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You know the other things about ADS…
It can move the game in unpredicatable ways, and challenge players more. For example, who in their right mind would ever PLAN on German Naval Superiority in the Atlantic and Med after 5 turns?
Also, when you get hit for a couple of major dice fracks in a game, and you still are able to pull off the victory, it feels pretty darn good!
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I’m starting to think Low Luck is the way to go :-D I certainly use it to test strategies against myself to see what you can expect.
But there is something to say about ADS. I got into the game partially because of the luck aspect. It is akin to gambling. You play poker because there is a chance element involved, but a lot of skill as well. A&A is not chess, where the results are rigorously dependent on your previous moves, and low luck starts to go down that road. The dice fracks and calculating for them takes a lot of balls to deal with, which is what makes it exciting to me.
Personally, I don’t care much about dice fracks one way or another. I will make apparent remarks like :-o look at those dice and stuff, but I take bad dice in stride. Suck it up as a loss, and keep going. Look at the overall picture - the dice should come out as you expect in the long run. Those who win in the long run have the better strategy. Those who use Low Luck take the shortcut to that destination, but it’s not as exciting.
Here is the main point in LL vs ADS. With low or no luck, you KNOW that an attack where you have a 51-60% to win will NEVER lose. Despite having a 49% to 40% chance to lose, you never will. So you can take RISKY attacks and do them.
With dice, you CANNOT do so. You have to make touch choices, either to ADD infantry to make the attack safe, WHICH MAY CAUSE NO ATTACK SOMEWHERE ELSE, or avoid doing the attack. So LL is NOT A&A. By eliminating risk, you change the strategy portion of the game. Conservative vs agressive. Multiple risky attacks vs one conservative attack.
LL is not true A&A.
Squirecam
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You know, I had this argument before :-) A rather LONG version too.
Agent Smith (LL Only) and me (ADS Only) went at it for weeks on the Classic boards. And it got rather heated at times.
Just figured i would metnion it since AS put out probably the best arguments that can be made for LL. I still disagree with him. But he did a darn fine job of trying to make his case for LL.
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If you don’t like dice play Chess, or GO or checkers.
What fun would it be if the Japan TRN off KWA never saved itself?
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Singing to the choir Frimmel.
Though I think the example I used was the(actually rather common) super defense of Yukon Jack… the British INF in WCan that routinely seems to survive Japan amphibious assaults… at least he did in Classic for some reason…
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The only problem I have is that 1 infantryman in ADS can successfully hold off 400 attacking infantrymen given the right dice rolls.
Perhaps the best solution is to determine the odds of the battle then roll percentile dice (2 X 10 sided dice or 1 X 100 sided die) Still gives you odds, but at least you know you’ll win 40% of the time when the odds say you will!
And with Frood’s break down, you could jsut figure out where that roll scores on the chart. :)
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It may be abnormal, but it DOES happen.
Let me put it this way…
Many, many years ago, as a group of us were playing AD&D, a d20 stopped ON EDGE. It just sat there, its movement completed, perched on the edge ratehr than falling to put one face flat on the table, and another facing up.
After several moments, someone bumped the table and the die finally fell. But as George said after it happened…
“With all the dice that have been rolled on this table, it was bound to happen eventually”And your “all 5 ones missing, several times” is certainly far more likely than a d20 landing on edge and staying there until the table is bumped.
I’ll bet Frood (or any other Dicey) does not even CONSIDER the odds of a die landing on edge in the sims. But it is an extremely rare option that CAN happen.
When you get screwed by a die that rolls nothing instead of just rolling the 88% likelyhood of non-ones…
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The only problem I have is that 1 infantryman in ADS can successfully hold off 400 attacking infantrymen given the right dice rolls.
And that can happen at your dinner table with real dice not just with a computer program. The odds are long but so are they of getting hit by ligtning or winning the lottery or getting a rare and terrible disease…but people do get hit by lightning and win the lottery and die from rare and terrible diseases.
Try this mantra, say it often while gaming, “They’re dice.” Say it when they are bad for you and when they are good for you. Say it when they are good and when they are bad for others.
“They’re dice.” “They’re dice.” “They’re dice.”
_Think of the story of the scorpion on the fox’s back crossing the river. The scorpion stings the fox. “Why’d you do that? You’ve killed us both.”
“It’s my nature,” answers the scorpion._
“They’re dice.” It’s their nature.
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@ncscswitch:
I’ll bet Frood (or any other Dicey) does not even CONSIDER the odds of a die landing on edge in the sims. But it is an extremely rare option that CAN happen.
That’s an awesome suggestion! I could program it with a 1 in 3 million chance of leaving each die balanced on one corner. The effect of this will be instant nuclear armaggedon on the enemy force. Sweet.
Speaking of odds, I am trying to figure out if there is a better way to calculate them than by running a battle 10,000 times. It should be doable mathematically. Eg. with just one tank on each side, you know that there is a 1 in 3 chance of either side winning, and a 1 in 3 chance of mutual destruction. However, it gets a lot more complicated with more units of different types, esp. with subs and aircraft and opening fire etc. But in principle it should be possible to calculate the percentage of each possible outcome individually just once. I don’t know if it would run faster, because there might be millions of possible ways a large battle could run, but it should be completely accurate anyway.
The question is, does anyone know how to calculate those odds? Even for a single round of 8 armor v. 8 infantry, as a moderately complex example? What’s the formula? Math nerd, anyone?
Also, just wondering if the e-mail format is working for people. Will it work with TripleA? I don’t have that working right now (Java problems), so I don’t know how the PBEM works. Is it just manual entry of the e-mailed results?
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From the tests I have run, it works great with forum play (e-mails)
I have not installed tripleA on my new PC yet, but I think that has a built in combat roller.
As for the 1 in 3,000,000 chance… For d6 that should be about right.
For d20, I have seen 2 land on edge. The second was in a gaming gorup about 6 years ago. But since it was not the first time I had seen it, was not as impressive (you get numb to d20 landing on edge once you have seen it happen) :-D
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It has to be possible. After all, there is AASim for classic that runs a lot more computations, as well as other online diceys. Though, there are two new units on the board which has to exponentially increase the amount of results for any given battle.
Also, I wish you had a picture of a D20 balanced on edge on that table. :( That would make an awesome avatar for this site!
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After about 30 seconds of everyone sitting there with their jaws hanging open, the table got bumped and it fell…
The second time, was on edge far less.
I guess I could stage one and photograph it…
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This reminds me of when playing risk . . .
The attacker would roll three 1’s. He would still request that the defender roll “in case the dice explode” :D -
@ncscswitch:
I have not installed tripleA on my new PC yet, but I think that has a built in combat roller.
Yeah, it has a built-in one, but it also offers a PBEM option, that I have not checked out yet. I assume you have to just tell it how many casualties you are going to take, just wondering if anyone had used it. I guess the place to ask would be over at tripleawarclub.org or whatever it’s called.
I just tried to check out DAAK but it won’t let me play without creating a game # or something.
How do I get into a tournament or game here? I’ve never played that way before, in fact, I’ve only played AA about 5 times total. Anyone want to pick on a newbie? Of course, it would be tricky for me to use AACalc (everyone here calls it Frood, but that’s just my domain name), because I could doctor the output and you’d never know. For that matter, I guess anyone who knows how to spoof an e-mail address could impersonate it. I wonder, how could I validate that? I guess that’s maybe why DAAK is used for tournaments, because it actually tracks the game.
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