How do you respond as UK to this german first turn?

[Guest]

Even without the Norway FIG…

77% UK SZ2 fleet sunk.

[cdassak]

The battle is 2subs 1bmr vs 1bb 1trn 1sub (Russian), isn’t it?

What dice simulator are you using?

[Guest]

Sorry, left off the Russian sub…

41% to clear the SZ.

[cdassak]

I don’t know whether the German will try it anyway - probably he will and see how the first round of combat goes.

The Norway attack messes Russian plans but would you risk loosing almost all UK Atlantic navy on G1? I need to playtest this more.

[Jennifer]

@ncscswitch:

Even without the Norway FIG…

77% UK SZ2 fleet sunk.

I’m confused.  Sea Zone 2 has 1 BB, 1 Trn, 1 Sub, Germany can bring 1 Submarine to the party, maybe a submarine and a fighter from Finland/Norway if Russia doesn’t kill it first.

How is that a 77% chance of clearing the zone?  Or even 43% for that matter.  The range for the rest of the luftwaffe is too far.  (3 spaces from W. Europe, 4 from Germany, 4 from E. Europe, 5 from Balkans, 5 from Ukraine)  Even the bomber cannot make it there and land safely.

So best hope on G1 for the UK fleet in SZ2 is:

Attacker results:
Probability % # units
  1% 2: 1 Fig, 1 Sub.
  2% 1: 1 Fig.
  97% 0: no units.
Defender results:
Probability % # units
  19% 4: 1 Tra, 1 Sub, 1 Bat.
  38% 3: 1 Tra, 1 Sub, 1 dBat.
  28% 2: 1 Sub, 1 dBat.
  11% 1: 1 dBat.
  4% 0: no units.

[Guest]

Two things Jen…

First, I corrected the figure, it is a bit over 40% (1 or 2 posts after the one you quoted)

Second, the initial parameters were a 9 Bid, with 8 of it used for an additional sub in SZ8 to start.

[Jennifer]

@ncscswitch:

Two things Jen…

First, I corrected the figure, it is a bit over 40% (1 or 2 posts after the one you quoted)

Second, the initial parameters were a 9 Bid, with 8 of it used for an additional sub in SZ8 to start.

Sorry, missed the extra Submarine.  I still don’t think this is going to make a huge alteration.  2 Subs vs 1 Sub, 1 Transport and 1 BB is still going to net you two dead German submarines with the possible death of a Russian submarine (which otherwise would float harmlessly in the Atlantic until the end of time.)

[Guest]

Actiually, the question is whether or not the BB lives or dies.
40% it dies
23% it is the only survivor.

2/3 chance of killing the SUB and TRN in SZ2, still a nice reduciton in Allied starting fleets… it will take more than half of UK’s first build just to replace those units.

And if the 40% pays off, it will take 2 turns before UK has that much navy in the water again.

And the Baltic Fleet is intact, as is the Med Fleet.

Sounds like a pretty good idea to me…

[Jennifer]

Breakdown:

1 Fighter, 2 Submarines vs 1 Transport, 1 Submarine, 1 Battleship:

Overall %*: A. survives: 19% D. survives: 72% No survivors:8%

• percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
  Attacker results:
  Probability % # units
    3% 3: 1 Fig, 2 Sub.
    7% 2: 1 Fig, 1 Sub.
    9% 1: 1 Fig.
    81% 0: no units.
  Defender results:
  Probability % # units
    5% 4: 1 Tra, 1 Sub, 1 Bat.
    19% 3: 1 Tra, 1 Sub, 1 dBat.
    27% 2: 1 Sub, 1 dBat.
    21% 1: 1 dBat.
    28% 0: no units.

If the German fighter is destroyed by Russia on R1, then we’re talking:

2 Submarines, vs 1 Transport, 1 Submarine, 1 Battleship:

Overall %*: A. survives: 2% D. survives: 98% No survivors:0%

• percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
  Attacker results:
  Probability % # units
    1% 2: 2 Sub.
    1% 1: 1 Sub.
    98% 0: no units.
  Defender results:
  Probability % # units
    31% 4: 1 Tra, 1 Sub, 1 Bat.
    41% 3: 1 Tra, 1 Sub, 1 dBat.
    20% 2: 1 Sub, 1 dBat.
    6% 1: 1 dBat.
    2% 0: no units.

Worst case scenario, I see the British battleship surviving 72% of the time.

[Guest]

Not Fighter… BOMBER.

Actually, FIG and BOM, if Norway remains German…

[Jennifer]

@ncscswitch:

Not Fighter… BOMBER.

Actually, FIG and BOM, if Norway remains German…

Bomber cannot make it to Sea Zone 2 from Germany.  It’s 4 spaces to get there and 4 spaces to get back, since Finland was captured. :)  Even if you liberate it, you cannot land there.

[Guest]

Fine.  Russia makes a very sub-optimal attack on Norway in order to prevent an attack on the UK fleet that it does not even know if it will occur?

Why not send the Russian FIGs against the Baltic Fleet while you are at it, to destroy half of it or so and make sure Germany can’t link navies either :-P

[Jennifer]

At least taking out Finland is a pretty safe move.  Sure, you can take it back, but then England has a walk in there.  That’s the only reason I’d consider it.  Maybe do Finland and West Russia instead of Ukraine.  Keeps your tanks out of direct path (except 1) of German infantry.

[Guest]

UK normally gets Norway for free.

This way, Germany will have forces there instead, after killing extra Russians…

[cdassak]

So if Russia takes Norway even the bmr can’t attack.
The battle is 3inf 2ftr 1arm vs 3inf 1ftr so the Russian can drop the Moscow ftr before killing the tank. It will die in Karelia on G1 anyway.
Even if Norway doesn’t change hands (but you do kill the German ftr) the UK bb will probably survive.

Now the dilemma is attack Norway, sacrifising 1ftr and 1arm, and abandon any ‘usual’ Russian opening to save the UK fleet or do nothing and let it die…

[Jennifer]

@cdassak:

So if Russia takes Norway even the bmr can’t attack.
The battle is 3inf 2ftr 1arm vs 3inf 1ftr so the Russian can drop the Moscow ftr before killing the tank. It will die in Karelia on G1 anyway.
Even if Norway doesn’t change hands (but you do kill the German ftr) the UK bb will probably survive.

Now the dilemma is attack Norway, sacrifising 1ftr and 1arm, and abandon any ‘usual’ Russian opening to save the UK fleet or do nothing and let it die…

3 Inf, 1 Arm, 1 Fighter vs 3 Infantry, 1 Fighter:

Overall %*: A. survives: 60% D. survives: 34% No survivors:7%

• percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
  Attacker results:
  Probability % # units
    1% 5: 3 Inf, 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
    7% 4: 2 Inf, 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
    16% 3: 1 Inf, 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
    19% 2: 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
    17% 1: 1 Fig.
    40% 0: no units.
  Defender results:
  Probability % # units
    1% 4: 3 Inf, 1 Fig.
    6% 3: 2 Inf, 1 Fig.
    12% 2: 1 Inf, 1 Fig.
    15% 1: 1 Fig.
    66% 0: no units.

But let’s say Germany got extremely good die rolls and Russia had to retreat the plane.  It used 1 movement to get from Karelia to Finland/Norway so has 3 left.  1 to Karelia, 1 to West Russia, 1 to Caucasus or Russia.

So how, exactly, is Russia going to loose a fighter in this engagement?  They loose the same 3 infantry they would loose anyway in any engagement with Germany, either offensively or defensively, the same Armor they probably would loose on a German counter attack and kill off a German fighter, deny a German assault on the British navy (and if you bid a second sub, odds are you’re going to try and do more naval damage on G1 then normal) and set up a method of destroying even more german units with England’s landings in Finland.

[cdassak]

Jen,

I use both ftrs to be as certain as possible. If you are gonna do the Norway attack you must use maximum force. It would be a pitty to go to all this trouble with Russia and not kill the ftr = loose the UK fleet in sz2

[Jennifer]

@cdassak:

Jen,

I use both ftrs to be as certain as possible. If you are gonna do the Norway attack you must use maximum force. It would be a pitty to go to all this trouble with Russia and not kill the ftr = loose the UK fleet in sz2

I’m already at 66% chance of complete destruction of Norway.  I don’t need the land, why bring the extra fighter?  It’s an unncessary risk and you will most certainly loose it when Germany takes Karelia (which they’re going to do no matter what anyway.)

[Guest]

66% to clear Norway, but only 52% to take it.

That means Russia is losing an ARM in that fight, and gaining nothing in return but killing a FIG.
Add in a 40% of Germany killing EVERYTHING, including the Russian FIG, and a Norway strike is definitely sub-optimal (unless you are doing it purely to preserve UK fleet due to a bid placement of an extra German SUB in SZ8).

Without the need for SZ2 fleet protection, this move is really a bad idea for Russia due to the guaranteed loses, and the high risk of total loss.

[Jennifer]

All in:

3 Infantry, 1 Fighter from Karelia
1 Armor from Archangelsk

vs

3 Infantry, 1 Fighter on Finland/Norway

Results:

Overall %*: A. survives: 58% D. survives: 33% No survivors:7%

• percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
  Attacker results:
  Probability % # units
    1% 5: 3 Inf, 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
    6% 4: 2 Inf, 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
    15% 3: 1 Inf, 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
    20% 2: 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
    16% 1: 1 Fig.
    42% 0: no units.
  Defender results:
  Probability % # units
    1% 4: 3 Inf, 1 Fig.
    6% 3: 2 Inf, 1 Fig.
    12% 2: 1 Inf, 1 Fig.
    14% 1: 1 Fig.
    67% 0: no units.

If you want best chance to retain your fighter, results are:

Overall %*: A. survives: 88% D. survives: 43% No survivors:1%

• percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
  Attacker results:
  Probability % # units
    1% 5: 3 Inf, 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
    7% 4: 2 Inf, 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
    16% 3: 1 Inf, 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
    20% 2: 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
    44% 1: 1 Fig.
    12% 0: no units.
  Defender results:
  Probability % # units
    2% 4: 3 Inf, 1 Fig.
    8% 3: 2 Inf, 1 Fig.
    16% 2: 1 Inf, 1 Fig.
    17% 1: 1 Fig.
    57% 0: no units.

(The above from FROOD)

So in an all in you have a 58% chance of retaining your fighter, 42% chance of taking the land.  If you want to keep your fighter at all costs, you have a 44% chance of doing so while still a 57% chance of killing all German units in Finland/Norway.

And yes, I’d say only do this if you think an attack on the British BB in SZ2 is immenant.  Or if you wanna go Crazy Ivan with Russia and take out the UKR and FIN fighters and don’t care if you have the land, you just want to amke it easier to dismantle the Luftwaffe.