It is 50/50 for Ukraine/Belo.
Placed in Belo, it forces Russia to go with a Ukraine/West Russia attack, leaving Belo untouched with 4 INF ready to counter in Ukraine…
In Ukraine, that extra INF ends up dead anyway, and Russia still gets paid for Ukraine, and still loses all of their forces on the German counter-attack.
Libya is a good choice also, especially if Germany gets 2 INF instead of just 1. More IPC’s faster and for longer.
The trade off is that it then leaves UK in India on UK1 and so they block Japan better (since the extra forces preclude an Egypt counter-attack). Japan thus grows slower due to Germany’s bid.
Long term though (turn 3 and beyond) Germany’s African forces are easily countered by the USA and UK without any real diversion of forces (almost all units are immediately transportable against Germany’s southern territories, spreading out Germany’s defenses…)
So the net result is that Germany gets an extra 3 IPC or so per round for a couple of rounds, Japan is slowed, and Germany ends up with a larger “front” to defend against UK and USA…
And since the IPC gain will only last 2-3 rounds, why not just put the 2 INF in Europe to begin with instead of fighting and risking units in Africa for the same net gain?