Japan can easily afford to vacate FIC and Kwa, if they move in force to Man then Mongolia (or Yak), they can force the Allies to abandon SE without a fight or they end up losing Novo to Japan.
To Avin’s point,
it is a bit hard since everyone is probably comparing apples to oranges.
It is pretty much accepted that the Allies can employ any strat and basically win in most games (without a bid). I could probably win by buying US IC’s in both Brazil and Ala on rd 1 but I don’t think it would be feasible to do so in a real game.
I believe equalizing factors are something like (at least to be competitive)
For RR: 12 bid
No RR: 21+ bid
Anything strat talk that doesn’t take into account anything close to those levels probably isn’t that reliable.
It is just hard to weigh tech or production chages, b/c the Allies can still wreck havok on rd 1. Ukr will still fall on R1 (or be strafed) and KwangBang is also still an option. That will basically end the game right there no matter what the Allies decide to do.