2015 League General Discussion Thread

[gamerman01]

So no, please don’t delay the playoff game.  Otherwise, I recommend playing weaker players to build your confidence, and so that even if you get very poor dice you can still win.

[axis-dominion]

@Gamerman01:

Ask Roboto if he’ll agree to some kind of low luck AA.� Not sure how the Triple A low luck AA works, but I think you should play a version of low luck like where if you send out 4 different bombers on 4 different missions, you can’t get hit more than once.

ohh that’s a great idea. i’ll see what he thinks!

[gamerman01]

Awesome, glad I could help.  That’s what I’m here for

[DizzKneeLand33]

@axis-dominion:

perfect example of my aa/interceptor curse….so far in my game with artofwar, i’m 1/23 on hitting his air attacks or something very close to that, and he was hitting something like 50%, and this one turn i went in with 4 bombers on 4 separate raids, and he nailed 3 of them!!!

like seriously wtf can i do about this??

I’m going to insert just a small amount of reality into this discussion, because sometimes when we start to feel emotionally that the dice are completely against us, we don’t see rational results.

You have already stated that your other battles go just fine, no complaints.  Do you think that maybe those are going a bit better than average, and the interceptor thing is just balancing it out?  Just thought I’d throw it out there.

Okay, so the odds of a bomber getting shot down by an aa, by number of bombers.  You said you sent 4, and 3 were shot down.

Bombers Shot Down = 0: 5/65/65/65/61(combination) = 625/1296 = 48.2%
Bombers Shot Down = 1: 1/65/65/65/64(combination) = 500/1296 = 38.6%
Bombers Shot Down = 2: 1/61/65/65/66(combination) = 150/1296 = 11.6%
Bombers Shot Down = 3: 1/61/61/65/64(combination) = 20/1296 = 1.5% (it’s actually 1.54%)
Bombers Shot Down = 4: 1/61/61/61/61(combination) = 1/1296 = 0.1% (it’s actually .07%)

So, you are going to walk away from the game for receiving a 1.63% result (3 or 4 bombers out of 4 getting shot down)?  I know stuff happens, axis-dominion, but you are a much better player than that.  Just sayin’.  :)

I mean, it’s not even a 1/100 result…. it was better than that.  And, in average with your other results in real battles (those dice count too, right?), I bet your dice are… well… pretty much like everyone else’s in aggregate.  Sure, we all go through bad streaks and good streaks, but you have to focus on the big picture – I know that’s hard when you are in the midst of really sucky dice, but that’s why I’m typing this message at all – tough love.  :-D

[DizzKneeLand33]

And, it would help if I could add… 1.54 + .07 = 1.61% result, but of course we can’t edit on this board…  :mrgreen:

[gamerman01]

Yeah, there’s truth in that, Dizz, but it’s really tough with AA dice because it’s such a huge swing.  When you get a bottom 1.5% on something with such a huge swing (3 factories got 0 damage, and 3 bomber threats are erased), it’s killer.

I do agree that there are a lot of A&A players who feel like victims because of self-bias - I have as much bias as anyone towards myself, and appreciate your thoughtful post that is just attempting to help shed a different perspective for a good player who is frustrated.

[axis-dominion]

Dizz, I too appreciate your thoughtful post. But I’m with Gammer on this, the aa/interceptor rolls happen to be very important in a tough match, and when you start to consistently roll below average on these types of battles, and when it only gets worse with each game, it’s very hard to not get emotional and start making bad decisions. That one example I cited was but one of many such instances in my current and recent games. I have examples in my current games where I’ve gone 0/9 or 0/11 in one interceptor + aa battle! So it’s not even that my bombers are getting downed, but my aa and interceptors have been missing big time. It’s double the psychological effect on me. In that same game against art, furthermore, I’ve only had one aa hit out of something like 22 or 23 rolls (this includes aa missing in battles, not just raids)…if that’s not really bad I don’t know what is!

I’m not wanting to take a break because of one bad battle or turn, or even one bad game. This aa “curse” has been building up and therefore I feel it’s a kind of signal that I probably should take a break for some time and shake it off. Maybe I need to spend more time in other areas of my life that have been neglected due to gaming  :-)

@Gamerman01:

Yeah, there’s truth in that, Dizz, but it’s really tough with AA dice because it’s such a huge swing.  When you get a bottom 1.5% on something with such a huge swing (3 factories got 0 damage, and 3 bomber threats are erased), it’s killer.

I do agree that there are a lot of A&A players who feel like victims because of self-bias - I have as much bias as anyone towards myself, and appreciate your thoughtful post that is just attempting to help shed a different perspective for a good player who is frustrated.

[Jennifer]

Dizz,

Stop trying to erase their pain with cold hard statistics!  I’ve seen more friendships lost over statistics than anything else! lol  No seriously, I was an Applied Mathematics student and everytime I’ve tried to say “my navy isn’t unbeatable, you just scored in the bottom 30 percentile” a couple, specific, players would storm off for two months!

Just empathize, feel their pain, and commiserate!  Then, when it is your turn, you can grab them by the, ere, NOSE (dirty minds, the lot of you!) and kick them in the shins when they complain about dice in your game. =^_^=

(Seriously though, it sux so BAD when you consistently and repeatedly get your bombers return to you in pieces by the AAA dicey!  It’s so bad I rarely run SBR if TripleA is going to roll the AA Guns!  I think there was a version of TripleA out there at one point that I calculated a 93% or better chance of AA hitting your bomber if you did SBR…back in Classic of course!  Maybe it was lower, feels like WAY higher though!)

[gamerman01]

@axis-dominion:

Maybe I need to spend more time in other areas of my life that have been neglected due to gaming  :-)

Ah, and now it comes out…
See Proverbs 16:33

Maybe not so random after all…

[axis-dominion]

I gathered the aa/interceptor stats for this game I’m playing against artofwar, so Dizz and others can have the bigger picture of why I feel the need for a break. Keep in mind this is one game of many that I’m experiencing bad luck in this area, but this one is definitely the worst.

I’m so far at 2 out of 35 total hits (5.7%), whereas he is at 7/15 hits (46.7%). Now that’s a huge difference, don’t you think?

Detailed breakdown follows:

My hits:

5G 0/4 (aa misses on sbr against R) 20 damage on factory, 5 damage on airbase
5J 0/3 (aa missed in Amur battle) average tuv per battle calc was 14, but he got 28 instead
6J 0/2 (aa misses on sbr against india) 15 damage to factory
6I 0/3 (aa misses in Iraq battle)
8G 0/4 (aa misses in sbr in UK) 20 damage to factory
8G 0/3 (aa misses in Malta battle)
8J 0/1 (5 bombers attacked a mech in Siam, and it missed)
9G 0/2 (sbr raid on normandy) 4 damage to factory and 5 to harbor
9J 0/2 air battle in India
9J 1/4 (sbr raid on India) 16 damage (maxed out, as there was already 4 damage)
11G 0/3 (battle in Normandy)
11J 1/3 (3 bombers attack a tank, and it downs one)
13G 0/1 (battle in ukraine)

His hits:

6US 1/2 (sbr on West Germany) caused 7 damage, but lost a tac bomber
7US 1/1 (sbr on France) lost a bomber
8R 0/2 (battle in rostov) only real break I’ve had this game, but it was of minor importance
8US 0/1 (my planes attacked German art and it missed on defense)
8US 0/1 (bomber attacked inf and it missed)
9J 2/2 planes killed in air battle lost 2 fighters! (<–- perfect example of an emotional decision of my sending 2 ftrs against 4 bombers in an air raid…i was so pissed at the abysmal aa/interceptor luck that i just did it out of stubbornness)
9US 0/1 (sbr on N. Italy causing 4 damage)
11US 0/1 (sbr on Persia causes 3 damage)
13US 3/4 (2 out of 3 sbrs failed, and bomber attacking mech killed)

[DizzKneeLand33]

Okay, I don’t want to be the buried horse  8-) , but, you are counting his hits as 7/15, when by your own admonition they are 7/17 – if you send up two fighters against 4 bombers, he got 4 rolls, not just 2.  Or, you could look at it and say that without using the gambler’s fallacy in that battle that you would only be down 5/13, but we’ve all been there I’m sure (regarding the gambler’s fallacy:  I know I have been!).

LOL, Jenn, yes the CD for classic had some of the worst aa’s I think I’ve ever seen.  I swear that once you got heavy bombers, the opponent got heavy aa guns… now that was some sickening stuff, too!

In a recent battle of mine today, I sent 5 bombers, 2 tacs, and 2 fighters to hit 3 defenders.  I only got 2 hits on the first round, so I lost an extra plane because of that.  10 IPC’s.  Run your odds on that one.  :)  Those battles matter too, not just the sbr’s…

But, again, it all evens out in the end – sometimes the timing of the rolls doesn’t make it seem so, however, so I do feel your pain…

[axis-dominion]

umm, ok, even at 5/13 (38.5%) or 7/17 (41%), it’s still a huge difference compared to my 5.7%…

@DizzKneeLand33:

Okay, I don’t want to be the buried horse  8-) , but, you are counting his hits as 7/15, when by your own admonition they are 7/17 – if you send up two fighters against 4 bombers, he got 4 rolls, not just 2.  Or, you could look at it and say that without using the gambler’s fallacy in that battle that you would only be down 5/13, but we’ve all been there I’m sure (regarding the gambler’s fallacy:  I know I have been!).

LOL, Jenn, yes the CD for classic had some of the worst aa’s I think I’ve ever seen.  I swear that once you got heavy bombers, the opponent got heavy aa guns… now that was some sickening stuff, too!

In a recent battle of mine today, I sent 5 bombers, 2 tacs, and 2 fighters to hit 3 defenders.  I only got 2 hits on the first round, so I lost an extra plane because of that.  10 IPC’s.  Run your odds on that one.  :)  Those battles matter too, not just the sbr’s…

But, again, it all evens out in the end – sometimes the timing of the rolls doesn’t make it seem so, however, so I do feel your pain…

[DizzKneeLand33]

True.  The odds of hitting 2/35 or worse is 5.38%, according to a stat calc I found.  The odds of hitting 5/13 or better is 5.115%.

The problem is, you were on the wrong end of both, not that the dice are skewed.  Anything that has a probability of 5% in statistics isn’t even considered a significant outcome, if I remember that class from 20+years ago….

We just need to work on your rolling skills.  ;)

[axis-dominion]

LOL

that’s one of the things i’m planning on doing during my little “vacation” from A&A

@DizzKneeLand33:

True.  The odds of hitting 2/35 or worse is 5.38%, according to a stat calc I found.  The odds of hitting 5/13 or better is 5.115%.

The problem is, you were on the wrong end of both, not that the dice are skewed.  Anything that has a probability of 5% in statistics isn’t even considered a significant outcome, if I remember that class from 20+years ago….

We just need to work on your rolling skills.  ;)

[Jennifer]

Just keep in mind, there are no truly random number generators in IT.  :P

So if you think you are in the middle of a run of bad luck, it might pay off to go for a big gamble…hell, if you are in a run of bad luck, it can’t hurt to try for a big gamble! lol

That said, I have to say, this is quite annoying, everyone I challenge to a dual of the dice is scared.  You know, I do bite - I like biting, it’s like kissing but there’s a winner! - I just don’t bite MUCH!  :P

[DizzKneeLand33]

@Cmdr:

Just keep in mind, there are no truly random number generators in IT.  :P

The older I get, the more I’m starting to think that there is a reason why truly random numbers cannot be created.  Perhaps, just perhaps, it’s because the nature of the universe itself isn’t random?  Otherwise, you would think that randomness would be so easy to emulate……

Maybe I need to look up that Proverbs passage, too.  :-D

[Jennifer]

Yea, well…uhm…I would really prefer NOT to go there.  (As much as I agree with the sentiment.)

RNGs in computers have the fatal flaw of having a logical algorithm that determines what the “random” number will be.

“On a completely deterministic machine you can’t generate anything you could really call a random sequence of numbers,” says Ward, “because the machine is following the same algorithm to generate them. Typically, that means it starts with a common ‘seed’ number and then follows a pattern.”

M.I.T.  (MIT’s Engineering webpage.  Google it yourself, closed the tab accidentally and I am not hunting down the freaking link again!)

That means no matter how good tripleA gets, it will never be as good as rolling dice with your own hand.  Besides, I prefer the in-house dicey, I think it is more random (actually I don’t, I think it secretly has a crush on me and gives me better than average results when I really need them!)  But yes, I do think tripleA’s dice server has gotten better - I still just don’t have the courage to stake my campaign on it’s RNG.

[bmnielsen]

It won’t be an issue for long. Modern processors have a hardware-based RNG that uses thermal noise or some other physical thing to generate truly random data, so in those cases you’re only in trouble if you need so random data faster than the hardware can provide it.

But part of randomness is that you will get runs of good dice and runs of bad dice, so I don’t think the tech is going to change people’s perception of things :)

[TheMethuselah]

@Cmdr:

“On a completely deterministic machine you can’t generate anything you could really call a random sequence of numbers,” says Ward, “because the machine is following the same algorithm to generate them. Typically, that means it starts with a common ‘seed’ number and then follows a pattern.”

M.I.T.  (MIT’s Engineering webpage.  Google it yourself, closed the tab accidentally and I am not hunting down the freaking link again!)

Control+Shift+T re-opens closed tab in Windows. Command+Shift+T for Mac OS, though apparently Safari doesn’t support this.

[bmnielsen]

FYI for gmail users. My axisandallies.org forum notifications started getting flagged as spam today, so you may need to manually dig them out / create a rule to whitelist them.