I have to say that with the German naval build described in the opening statement, and strafing the German BB (all German ships in sz112 defended w/air base) the UK will most likely not scramble and turtle adding inf/air to London (can’t see them scrambling or making luxury buys UK1). It has become pretty standard to build some defense for London w/German naval builds. The UK would have the option of attacking the German fleet though (odds not too good for UK).
If UK does Taranto, it weakens the Italians effort to take/supply the Rock, but it would also cost the UK the Med fleet so they would be hard pressed to defend or retake it if lost. Assuming the Germans left sz109 alone (DD and transport) the UK could do Taranto and still place 2-4 ground units on the Rock and some ftrs probably sacrificing 1-2 transports (could be more if the Canadian transport survives). Also placing the 109 DD in sz 92 would stop Italian bombardment leaving them only one loaded transport and no air to invade Gib (not likely to happen IMO). So Italy’s job would be to kill off the sz93 French fleet (so they can’t move to sz104 to block out the Germans), and take out any UK blockers that might be in SZs 110 or 104). They will also want to take Algeria to allow the German bmrs a landing place. The UK may have dropped 2 units and air in Algeria w/French inf but Italy has the air power to take it IMO (but do they have enough to take out French fleet and a defended Algeria?). If the Germans have a clear shot at Gib from sz112 they could amphib w/a couple ground units 2 bmrs and ftr/tac stationed in Rome (land on carrier). So they will probably get it depending on where the UK beefs up defenses. How many units do they have defending the Rock, vs what is defending Algeria? If the Germans do take Gib, the Luftwaffe can’t land there, but I don’t think the UK will be in a position to take it back yet.
No Taranto, but kill Ita sz96, move all available UK ships to sz92 (leave blocker in sz 94, w/French fleet in sz93 effectively blocking out the Italians from Gib this turn). Also transport up to 4 UK ground units to Gib w/air (including the French ftr). This would probably stop the Germans from invading the Rock from the Atlantic as well because of the Med fleet on the other side in sz92 (if they don’t get it Kriegsmarine is toast). The axis could try a double air sweep of the UK sz92 fleet though by again having Italy clear Algeria giving the Luftwaffe a landing place. It would take a toll on the axis air power though.
Anyway I think that if the UK decides to fight for the Rock, even if they lose it, the Axis could be drained just in time for round 2 vs USA
What happens if the US/UK goes Spain?