Africa Folly for Germany?

[Guest]

The Caspian Sub strat was discussed heavilly here a while back.  As a matter of fact, I calle dthe guy who wrote that article an idiot, or somethign similar, because of how easy that strat is to IMMEDIATELY counter (as in destroy its usefullness on UK1)

[trihero]

caspian sub talks about 2-3 trannies g1 for a link, they think it will deter uk from hitting fleet, i think i would still do it even knowing my air is toast to trim that fleet down so i could handle it the next round

Well, if you buy 2 transports the Baltic fleet has a 70% chance of winning, and all you’d be shaving off if submarines if you strafed. If you buy 3 transports, even strafing begins to get risky. Subs for planes is not a good deal. I think you’d have a hard time “handling” the linked fleet next round without any airforce from round 1, plus you have to defend your capital well enough vs ~5 tran and some planes

[Guest]

the 3 TRN build does not take effect for USE of those TRN’s until G2.

That means UK can build an AC, strafe the fleet, reinforce with land, and US can send a FIG and land forces to secure UK.

If it were a BID, it might work… but with UK getting a build in there too before use… NOPE!

SZ6:  1 AC, 1 BB, 1 TRN, 1 SUB (UK), 1 SUB (USSR), 2 FIGs (UK or US and UK)

That Tranny fleet (with no attack rolls for the trannies) has to get through THAT first… THEN they face 4 INF, 2-3 ARM, 1-2 BOM, perhaps a FIG, and of course AA fire.

It would be DAMAGING to UK, but not fatal.  And Germany would blow its wad on both it’s Baltic Fleet, it’s G1 build AND it’s Air Force in the effort.

Russia is going to tear the snot out of the German Front after that… then the new Allied fleet gets built (US’s is already enroute from US1 build), and it is time for “The incredible Shrinking Nazi”

[trihero]

I don’t see why you continue to think a navy block is a good counter. Then the Baltic fleet is traded in for a ton of Allied equipment, with no loss to German airforce, so you have to rebuild quite a bit of defense and transports when you lose that stuff. The point of the 3 transport buy is not that you can invade UK, but that you threaten to do so, and if it makes the UK player do something (silly I think) like a naval block then that’s great for Germany. Still this strategy hinges on a bid in Africa so you can take Egypt on the first turn as well as Gibraltar.

[Guest]

Well Tri… think it through…

UK strafes the Baltic fleet… scratch the subs, scratch a UK FIG.  That leaves 1 FIG for the UK AC, and a German Baltic FLeet of 4 TRN, 1 DST.  Not much offensive force…  So they HAVE to use AF to back up the naval strike IF they do one.
US sends a FIG to the AC, so it is loaded.  US also has 2 TRN’s in SZ8, and land forces in UK, as well as their bomber.

So… Germany attacks the fleet of a BB, an AC, 2 FIG, 2 SUB, 1 TRN using their baltic fleet and Air Force.

Baltic fleet is toast, and so are a few pieces of the Luftwaffe.  UK’s next build is more fleet, and US sends TRN’s to increase the size.  Germany is down to a few FIGs that are DESPERATELY needed against Russia if they wish to trade territories and gain on Moscow.  Without the Luftwaffe, Russia WINS the battle on that front.

So… you try the sucker bet… the bluff…

UK and USA call your bluff.
You either attack that fleet and lose yours, and a chunk of your AF, or you fold, your Baltic FLeet dies, and UK and USA BOTH land forces in Norway in T2, then they move to Karelia in T3, with more forces to Norway (or attacking a weak Western…)

It is just a BAD move.

Call it “Sea Lion Scare, take 2”.  And Darth proved how much of a joke THAT was… and that was with the extra trannies as BID not BUILD.

[trihero]

I thought you said a block in SZ6, so how are the US transports going to be there? If you’re talking about linking in SZ8 then that’s an entirely different story. And I have no clue where you’re getting that a few of the luftwaffe will die. It takes at least 5 hits before you get to them, in which time most of the Allies navy will be toast in a block in SZ6 on Uk1. And it’s not like they have to stay around to die, you can do a very hard strafe.

Yeah reading your last post I have no clue what you’re talking about. You say block SZ6 a post before that, then you talk about SZ8, then you say both US and UK can land in Norway on T2. This is all contradictory and confusing; even if we were talking about SZ8 then the attack would have easily drained away your transports and ability to land in Europe until T3.

[Guest]

OK… let’s do it this way…

G1:  Germany builds the 3 TRN’s

Then in UK1, UK strafes the Baltic Fleet, sinks the 2 subs, and loses a FIG (on average).  Fig and bomber retreat
UK builds an AC and a SUB in SZ6.  Moves BB and TRN from SZ2 to SZ6.  FIG lands on AC

US1:  2 TRN from US to UK (with forces on board offloaded to UK).  FIG from Eastern flies to UK

R2:  Russia sub to SZ6

G2:  NOW Germany gets to strike that navy and try to invade UK.  The fleet in SZ6 is:
1 AC, 1 FIG, 1 BB, 2 SUB (1 UK, 1 USSR), 1 TRN.
Against that, Germany can send:
1 DST, 4 TRN, Air Force.
The Med FLeet can;t reach for this battle.  The closest they can get is SZ7.

Now, if they are going to invade UK, they will need to keep those trannies alive.  That means losing DST, then AF.  If they do not want to invade UK… fine, they start losing TRN’s…

But then what was the point?

The trannies die… Germany’s G1 build dies.

Let’s say that they kill the whole Allied fleet, and lose NO air force.  Best case scenario right?  But the Baltic Fleet is SUNK.

Now, in UK2, UK buys another AC and a TRN

US2:  2 TRN from SZ8 to SZ6 w/ new AC.  Offload US land forces already in UK to Norway.  Fly FIG from UK to AC.
USA1 build moves up to SZ8, with land forces offloaded to UK.

Care to point out the flaw?

It is just a BAD move.

Losing the G1 build in a naval battle on G2 where that build does not even offer any offensive punch is SILLY.

And what are you reinforcing against Russia with?  With no INF build in G1, that West Russia Stack is now a Ukraine or Belorussia Stack, and you have NO forces moving to Eastern to protect your ARM…

And of course you have lost Norway, and US and UK are about to send forces at their leisure to Western Europe, Norway, Karelia, Archangel, and Africa…

[Wood the rook]

I agree with NCS that a 3 trannies build on G1 is not a good choice: too little defence for your fleet. I would rather do a G1 purchase of an AC and a tranny with the rest going to inf or art. With this fleet UK cannot strafe, and if you took Gibraltar on G1, on G2 you can link up in SZ 7 and threaten UK with 3 trannies.

Pushing this a little further you could also try a “coup d’éclat” and attack eastern Canada on G3 and on J3 attack West Canada and Alsaka with all of the Japs trannies ending up with 3 inf and 4 armors in West Can and 5 inf 1 art (or any other combination) in East Canada, putting a lot of preassure on the US. Call me crazy but I might try this sometimes  :lol:.

[Wood the rook]

In reply to JWWII, I usually start with an AC and 8 INF on G1, on G2 I go all ground units (maybe 8 INF 4 ART), on G3 I buy lots of armor and on G4 I buy my med trannies to support Caucasus drop. With this build I try to take Caucasus on G5 and I still have some defensive piece against the allies. I must say that in order to buy those trannies on G4 the allies must be either doing a KJF or they split their effort against Japan and Germany. A good US player would not allow you to build a good Med fleet that late in the game by having a large fleet in the Atlantic ready to take your Med fleet.

[trihero]

Look, I think you continually fail to see the overall picture. First, a 2 transport buy is recommended vs experts, because experts will realize that the math prefers the Baltic navy reinforced with just 2 transports. 2 transports is exactly the same you’d be buying a carrier with, so you have exactly the same number of land troops that you would with a carrier buy. 3 transports is merely to minimize luck and discourage/punish lesser experienced players if they attack the navy.

So Germany attacks with 3 transports, 1 destroyer, 5 fighters, 1 bomber (attack power = 22 = about 4 hits), Allied defense is 1 fig 1 car 2 sub 1 tran 1 bb (defense power = 16 = about 3 hits). On Round 1 the German’s attack power has diminished a whopping zero points with 3 transports lost while the UK has lost 5 points (2 sub and 1 tran, 1 battleship absorbs a hit). On Round 2 the rest of the Allied fleet sinks to the bottom of the ocean perhaps claiming one fig as well as the destroyer. And realize I’m  being generous here, as we’re assumign that your 2 figs + 1 bomber take out 2 subs, which happens 66% of the time, which is ignoring a significant 33% portion of the time where you only inflict 1 submarine damage. Would you trade 1 fig + baltic fleet to have taken out 2 figs, 2 subs, 1 carrier, 1 battleship, 1 transport? Hell yes!

Losing the G1 build in a naval battle on G2 where that build does not even offer any offensive punch is SILLY.

You keep thinking that the whole point of the transport buy centrally revolves around invading UK. This is not the case.

You also keep saying that oh no, the Baltic fleet is going to die. Well guess what, it always does! The question is, how does it die? If you get the UK to foolishly block SZ6 on UK1, then the Baltic fleet has died extremely well.

Let’s say that they kill the whole Allied fleet, and lose NO air force.  Best case scenario right?  But the Baltic Fleet is SUNK.

Now, in UK2, UK buys another AC and a TRN

US2:  2 TRN from SZ8 to SZ6 w/ new AC.  Offload US land forces already in UK to Norway.  Fly FIG from UK to AC.
USA1 build moves up to SZ8, with land forces offloaded to UK.

Care to point out the flaw?

Again, I so say what? The Baltic fleet is sunk, but so is most of the UK fleet. You’ve forced the UK to buy TWO CARRIERS and a SUB for crying out loud. That makes the UK look pretty damn silly I think (increased their land offensive against Germany by zero for 40 IPCs spent), and they have yet to rebuild another 2-3 transports and men and have no more fighters or bb shots. The UK offloads in T3, not T1 or T2. The flaw is you seem to have a double standard - you don’t care that the Baltic fleet will die anyways even with a carrier buy, and probably not doing much damage at all since you retreat the fighters when the battle will not favor you.  A 2 tran buy allows you to easily wipe out a UK naval block with 1 or quite possibly no luftwaffe casualties.

Not to mention, US hasn’t landed in Algeria on T1 like you normally like to do because of the Med fleet. In fact, what if I simply attack your US fleet in SZ8 as well on G2 with the med fleet? If your SZ1 UK transport didn’t go there, it’s 80+% for the German fleet to win. If your UK transport is there for a force of 3 tran 1 destroyer, the Germans are still slated to win about 58% of the time, and will very likely have nailed all 3 transports. No landing in Norway for you until turn 3.

This is not to say that there aren’t easy/good counters against a 2-3 tran buy, and this is not to say that a carrier isn’t a good standard buy, but simply that I don’t think that your counter to a 2 tran buy makes much economic sense. You lose a ton of UK equipment and have to rebuild it….remember 40 IPCs spent towards zero offense against Germany (2 car + 1 sub), no more fighters or BB shots, and have to rebuild all transports from scratch if you defended SZ8…and all the Germans did was build 2 transports (precisely the same number of IPCs as carrier) and maybe use up 1 fig from their airforce.

[666]

I understand now WOOD, G tran med buy trn 4 under certain conditions.

A ? for TRI, you like the G 2 tran buy more than AC, which makes sense to me in your argument. Do you favor this buy more than a 2 sub buy as well? If so, is it due solely to the defense against AF?

[88 Millimeter]

The two Transport purchase, if  NOT dealt with, allows Germany a great deal of flexibility in the north, especially if followed up with a Carrier on G2. As Tri said, the idea is not to take Britain, but to gain the initiative. From G2 on 6 Inf can be moved to Karelia, or take back Norway if in allied hands.

If Britain moves up to block, mutual annhilation of the UK fleet and German Baltic fleet (with 2 Transports added) on G2 is absolutely to German advantage, and here’s why-

According to Switch he would have purchased a Carrier and sub on UK1. Another Carrier would then be purchased on UK2. That’s 40 IPCs in material. I assume Transports would still have to be built to allow for ground troops to start helping to defend Russia. In the meantime Africa has had no British troops to start cleaning it up from the initial German invasion and move south. If the British pulled out of India to slow Germany down then Japan has no opposition, and Switch being our resident Japanese expert knows that soon you’ll have a GIGANTIC Japan. If the British try to slow down Japan in India, Germany with any competent play eventually makes it to S Africa, with Japan eventually smashing routinely into Egypt, Persia, and I E Africa. In the meantime Japan has, at their leisure, taken Hawaii, New Zealand, and Australia. British economy is evaporating.

My point is… while Britain is spending precious IPCs resurrecting a fleet, and not placing any (or at the most minimal) boots on the ground while cranking up again, it’ll find itself making around 20 IPCs with almost no airforce. Germany has bought time.

I realize that I’m echoing much of what Tri said, but it’s because what he said was sound thought. I hope that I added the bigger picture of the ripple effects that it might have on the rest of the game.

That’s my opinion… but I might just be a silly idiot who makes bad moves.

[trihero]

Thx 88 millimeter  :-D

[wilkinson1974]

Agreed.

You can’t let the Baltic fleet live past the second round…  Here is what normally happens in our games if the Germans place a substantial build in the Baltic on G1(usually a pair of trannies or an AC with planes landing from mainland).  The Brit player buys planes, as many as he can build.  He moves his fleet into SZ3…  Taking Norway if he can.  The Russians on R2 move their sub into SZ6.  This prevents the Germans from bringing the Baltic fleet with their planes to prematurely sink her majesty’s fleet.  Most of the time, in our games, the most the Germans can bring by air against the fleet in SZ3 is 3 planes and a bomber(2 planes on carrier, 1 fig from WEU, and bomber from Germany--  one would be lost to siniking of Brit Med BB in G1, one plane is in Libya from the assault on Egy in G1, and the last is in SEU from the attack on the Brit DD in the Med).  The odds in that fight are against the planes…  That being said…  Unless the German’s want to spend more costly IPCs on the Baltic fleet, the Brits will be able to bring at least a BB, 2 trannies, a bomber, and 4(possibly 5)figs against the AC, 2 figs, 2subs, DD, and tranny in the Baltic.  This is a 90% win for the allies, and the potential is there for the BB to live.  The Brits generally build an AC and a tranny in the second round to begin their replacement, and a pair of Trannies in GB3.  With the Baltic fleet out of the way, the Brits can start landing troops about anywhere(which the Americans would be doing in round 3).  If the Germans build navy in round 2, they are giving up precious time to make land grabs from the Russians.  In our games, the Russian player is aggressive in the first 1-2 rounds, then turtles up a bit when the Germans can start making a strong push in G3.  Unfortunately, the Germans won’t be in a position to make a really strong push if they spent 24-32 IPCs in the first 2 rounds on their Baltic fleet…  Just my thoughts.

Wilk

@88:

The two Transport purchase, if  NOT dealt with, allows Germany a great deal of flexibility in the north, especially if followed up with a Carrier on G2. As Tri said, the idea is not to take Britain, but to gain the initiative. From G2 on 6 Inf can be moved to Karelia, or take back Norway if in allied hands.

If Britain moves up to block, mutual annhilation of the UK fleet and German Baltic fleet (with 2 Transports added) on G2 is absolutely to German advantage, and here’s why-

According to Switch he would have purchased a Carrier and sub on UK1. Another Carrier would then be purchased on UK2. That’s 40 IPCs in material. I assume Transports would still have to be built to allow for ground troops to start helping to defend Russia. In the meantime Africa has had no British troops to start cleaning it up from the initial German invasion and move south. If the British pulled out of India to slow Germany down then Japan has no opposition, and Switch being our resident Japanese expert knows that soon you’ll have a GIGANTIC Japan. If the British try to slow down Japan in India, Germany with any competent play eventually makes it to S Africa, with Japan eventually smashing routinely into Egypt, Persia, and I E Africa. In the meantime Japan has, at their leisure, taken Hawaii, New Zealand, and Australia. British economy is evaporating.

My point is… while Britain is spending precious IPCs resurrecting a fleet, and not placing any (or at the most minimal) boots on the ground while cranking up again, it’ll find itself making around 20 IPCs with almost no airforce. Germany has bought time.

I realize that I’m echoing much of what Tri said, but it’s because what he said was sound thought. I hope that I added the bigger picture of the ripple effects that it might have on the rest of the game.

That’s my opinion… but I might just be a silly idiot who makes bad moves.

[trihero]

A couple of issues:

1. The British navy is susceptible to being hit by 2 subs as well as about 3-4 fighters + 1bomber if they take Norway and have the Russian sub “block” the Baltic navy. Subs can sail through all naval units unless there’s a destroyer present. Therefore, the attack in SZ3 favors the Germans at no cost to their airforce unless you buy a navy.

2. You miss the second part of the equation which is the med fleet is going to Gibraltar on G1 so the fleets are linking on G2. The British can’t afford to try to take out the linked fleets on G2. 5 fighters + 1 bomber + 2 tran + 1 battleship loses 73% of the time against 2 fighter, 1 carrier, 3 subs, 1 battleship, 1 destroyer, and 2 transports.

That being said, there are still very easy counters to a German navy which is attempting to link, but none of the answers I like have to do with the UK spending so much money on carriers/fighters early on when you can have the US do it for you.

[wilkinson1974]

@trihero:

A couple of issues:

1. The British navy is susceptible to being hit by 2 subs as well as about 3-4 fighters + 1bomber if they take Norway and have the Russian sub “block” the Baltic navy. Subs can sail through all naval units unless there’s a destroyer present. Therefore, the attack in SZ3 favors the Germans at no cost to their airforce unless you buy a navy.

2. You miss the second part of the equation which is the med fleet is going to Gibraltar on G1 so the fleets are linking on G2. The British can’t afford to try to take out the linked fleets on G2. 5 fighters + 1 bomber + 2 tran + 1 battleship loses 73% of the time against 2 fighter, 1 carrier, 3 subs, 1 battleship, 1 destroyer, and 2 transports.

That being said, there are still very easy counters to a German navy which is attempting to link, but none of the answers I like have to do with the UK spending so much money on carriers/fighters early on when you can have the US do it for you.

Let’s go back to my original post…  I said Egypt was attacked…  This means the German BB and tranny in the Med went east in G1.  It is impossible for them to link with the Baltic fleet in G2.  Also, go ahead and split that fleet…  My combat sim tells me that the chances of losing both subs is about 70%.  I’ll just attack the capital ships with the planes instead(97% chance of vicotry).  The subs(if they don’t die in the attack in SZ3 on G2-chances are they will) in GB3 are next.  Even if one of the subs survives, you splash the russian sub with a plane from SEU, and re-merge your fleet in SZ3, the subsequent counter(5 figs and a bomber against 1sub, AC, 2planes, DD, and tranny) attack is a 2-1 fight in favor of the allies.  If the Axis get lucky, the Americans finish off what’s left in US2.  Any way you look at it, I have have accomplished what I wanted to…  The Baltic fleet is gone by GB3.  Believe me, We have run into this scenario many times playing…  The Baltic fleet has never been able to survive past the 3rd round.  The reason we invest in the carrier is it prevents early invasion attempts by Britain and the US.

Wilk

[Guest]

But 3 rounds with no Allies troops in Europe… VERY nice for Germany.

All the Germany fleets are is to stall/slow the Allies a couple of rounds.  16 IPC’s is all it costs, and UK has to wait until UK4 to start landing troops…

4 rounds of RUssia alone with Germany… NOT pretty…

[trihero]

I can’t deny that you can get rid of the Baltic fleet by UK3, but lots of people really like to miss the main point of the Baltic navy - what does it take out? If it takes out 2 transports and a battleship, and perhaps a fighter, as well as force the UK to build a carrier or 2 and lots of fighters when they could instead be landing earlier with transports, then I think the Baltic navy has done a great job.

There are easy ways to dance around the Baltic navy that don’t require you doing silly things like exposing your bb/2 trans to an attack by 2 subs + airforce.

[Guest]

An SZ12 US/UK fleet consolidation being one of those :-)

[wilkinson1974]

@ncscswitch:

An SZ12 US/UK fleet consolidation being one of those :-)

Hmmm…  4 trannies, 1BB, 1sub, and 1DD off the coast of algeria by G2… The most the Germans can bring to it if the fig dies in the Ukraine in R1, and a fig is left in SEU after the attack in Egypt(SZ15) on G1, and the sub lives killing the BB in the Med in G1…  Germans can at most bring…  4 figs, a bomber, and a sub…  Since the Russian sub would have first strike on German sub(DD negates German first strike)…  That battle is less than 50/50 for Germans…  With the UK building trannies on GB1, and the US building an AC and trannies in US1…  You could merge the fleets west of GB--  (if attack in G2 doesn’t happen) would be around 8 trannies(4uk, 4us), 2DD(us), BB(uk), AC(us), 2 planes(us), and a sub(rus) in a position to strike either Norway or WEU in force in round 3…  interesting…  I like it, Switch…